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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 12, 2018 9:37:55 GMT -6
Not worrying, never believed. Wont until snow is flying and accumulating.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 12, 2018 9:39:59 GMT -6
12Z NAM for Thursday would be legendary not seen since the 70s. 
1977-78 was an analog year, so far seems to be more or less on track.
Also important to note is that the models in the longer range have really toned down the warm-up for next couple of weeks with mostly near normal temps to still slightly below normal temps being shown for most days minus a one or two here and there ahead of each storm in what should be another pacific storm parade starting mid next week. Seems like the colder, snowier pattern then wants to reload as early as the 2nd if not 3 week of December in time for the Holidays.
have to agree with the analog year. that shows how rare that is....for that reason i wld go with a drizzle or light mix at this lead. the late 70s is something that i get suspicious when comparisons are made. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 9:52:30 GMT -6
Light snow has broken out in New Haven.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 9:59:08 GMT -6
GFS starting to look like the Euro for Thursday. Not quite as robust but the trend is there
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 10:01:28 GMT -6
GFS starting to look like the Euro for Thursday. Not quite as robust but the trend is there Gem is coming in supportive as well. That'd be about the craziest damn thing I've seen but I guess it's possible. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 10:03:55 GMT -6
Steady light snow now in Villa Ridge
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 10:07:02 GMT -6
As we get into the afternoon we should start to see a breakdown of the lead batch followed by a redevelopment on the back end. That's where most of us will cash in I think as temp drop will help.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 10:10:33 GMT -6
SGF reporting 1/4mi vis and there's quite a few 1/2 and 3/4mi reports across S/central MO...still looking good for a low-end advisory level event although I think roads will be mostly wet outside of a burst of sleet or heavy snow.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 12, 2018 10:16:31 GMT -6
Steady light snow now in Villa Ridge How are you getting from New Haven to Villa Ridge so fast? It only took you 13 minutes. Are you flying between locations? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 10:23:36 GMT -6
Rolla is reporting a quarter mile in heavy snow
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 10:24:36 GMT -6
Steady light snow now in Villa Ridge How are you getting from New Haven to Villa Ridge so fast? It only took you 13 minutes. Are you flying between locations? My best friend lives in New Haven and follows our blog but since he can’t post he relays me the info. That’s also how I get reports from wentzville bc he works at GM. By the way when the snow starts it picks up quickly with many pea size wet flakes. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 10:24:38 GMT -6
I'm working all over the place here in St Louis County today.
Our base of operations is Hampton and 44.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 10:25:56 GMT -6
Man that 12Z GEM run... Gives us almost a year's worth of snow through it's run, not even December yet...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 10:27:01 GMT -6
It should be snowing in St. Louis within the hour
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 10:30:17 GMT -6
It should be snowing in St. Louis within the hour It won't take long for that to break through.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 10:32:48 GMT -6
donut hole collapsing quickly over west county... most notable from the TDWR.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 10:34:00 GMT -6
It is really really coming dow but the video I was trying to upload doesn’t seem to work with photobucket anymore.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 10:34:01 GMT -6
Regardless, this is 'our' Winter guys. The pattern is locked and loaded. We're gonna get rewarded for the past 3 rather abysmal winters with something that could exceed 2013-2014. A year when even the 'torches' are just normal temps with most of the time below is just phenomenal.
Also could be some serious discounts on those drying cloths as not many will need to be 'tossed in' for the season as whole. Just won't be able to give them away. XD
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 10:35:40 GMT -6
Composite radar coming to life right up 44. Should be a nice snowy November day
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 10:36:48 GMT -6
In the meantime, might actually have to consider de-webbing that snow shovel for Thursday which hasn't had to be used in 3 years.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 10:37:25 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -6
Told y'all it was gonna snow  . |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 12, 2018 10:39:12 GMT -6
We are releasing school at noon today in Pacific. Better safe than sorry.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 10:40:43 GMT -6
CFS coming in real cold for the Holidays, likely too warm for the remainder of December unless one considers the lows which could be higher with more clouds from the wetter pattern especially in early December.
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Post by repomasterstl on Nov 12, 2018 10:41:38 GMT -6
Light snow in Roberstville
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 10:41:56 GMT -6
We are releasing school at noon today in Pacific. Better safe than sorry. Which is why I do not forecast school closings... only snow. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 10:43:26 GMT -6
As for Thursday I'd say something is coming and probably going to be very atypical. Heck even the Japanese model is showing it which is no easy feat btw, so definitely not a model blip.
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Post by jkfriedmann on Nov 12, 2018 10:44:22 GMT -6
We are releasing school at noon today in Pacific. Better safe than sorry. St. Clair, Union, and Washington are all releasing early too. Meanwhile, I work for Rockwood  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 10:44:23 GMT -6
Hope snowman and union are happy... I have to believe it is coming down good there right now.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 12, 2018 10:45:29 GMT -6
Right at 1.5" at 10am snow still steady, intensity almost unchanged for 2+ hours.
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