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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 6:37:39 GMT -6
So I’m horrible at reading the models. Do the latest models really show what I’m thinking?! Can someone please give me the timing on start? I read something that says Sunday night but then the NOAA shows Monday..? Can anyone clarify? This is looking like a Monday daytime event for the immediate Metro in the southeast it's also looking like a long event with two batches of snow wondering mid-morning Monday into afternoon then maybe another one later on on Monday evening. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 11, 2018 6:48:34 GMT -6
So I’m horrible at reading the models. Do the latest models really show what I’m thinking?! Can someone please give me the timing on start? I read something that says Sunday night but then the NOAA shows Monday..? Can anyone clarify? This is looking like a Monday daytime event for the immediate Metro in the southeast it's also looking like a long event with two batches of snow wondering mid-morning Monday into afternoon then maybe another one later on on Monday evening. Thanknyou |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 6:57:11 GMT -6
And even though this is a daytime event the sun angle this time of year is already very low and the ground has cooled off substantially. Any talk of a accumulation being hampered by that is freaking bogus the current solar equivalent is like late January we are good to go in this one. Agreed. It's more of an issue in Feb than in Nov. |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 11, 2018 7:34:56 GMT -6
I love waking up to positive model trends and Friv’s model updates and excitement. It’s just like old times! This is much better than the many, many times waking up to see the overnight models shifting the storm away from us.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 11, 2018 7:59:24 GMT -6
I love waking up to positive model trends and Friv’s model updates and excitement. It’s just like old times! This is much better than the many, many times waking up to see the overnight models shifting the storm away from us. That’ll be after this mornings runs!! 😂 |
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 11, 2018 8:03:38 GMT -6
I believe this is part of the MTW script. Paraphrasing here..."Someone notices the models trending towards a more snowy solution." The reality check probably comes in later tonight/early tomorrow when the models all revert back to what they were originally showing.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 11, 2018 8:13:35 GMT -6
Nam is more realistic this new run. But I think 2 to 4 is likely for the metro
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 8:27:08 GMT -6
Nam is more realistic this new run. But I think 2 to 4 is likely for the metro Yea back down to earth a bit but still very nice. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 11, 2018 8:45:08 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/N3g4M6V.jpghere's me throwing my hat into the ring based on the latest data. To be fair, on air I specified dusting-.5 inch but it just doesn't look as pretty on paper that way. Looks about right to me :-) |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 8:48:02 GMT -6
I assume mixing could be an issue for me?
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 11, 2018 8:58:49 GMT -6
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Post by REB on Nov 11, 2018 9:08:56 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Dave Murray! We miss you on tv.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 11, 2018 9:10:06 GMT -6
Nam is more realistic this new run. But I think 2 to 4 is likely for the metro Yea back down to earth a bit but still very nice. Remember the NAM will always pumps you up, show lots of moisture 24 hrs out, and then breaks your heart 18 hours before an event. It’s getting more real but not real enough as in my opinion it’s still too juicy and brings deeper moisture too far north. I’m sticking to what seems real to me given the Low is down in New Orleans. A southern El Niño track like that is not normally favorable for a big snow here but does in this case give a nice swath of 1-3” along and south of 44 in our viewing area IMO. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 11, 2018 9:14:38 GMT -6
I assume mixing could be an issue for me? It could, yes. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 9:23:09 GMT -6
ICON is now on board for Thursday's system with a solid advisory level hit for the metro and points south and east...
All models coming in slightly 'weaker' or less juicy for Tomorrow's event, essentially a 'reality check'. Still 1-3" probably the best way to go as it covers all bases and leaves some leeway as Chris likes to say.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 11, 2018 9:27:52 GMT -6
1-2 inches until it hits St.Clair country lol .... so why is the snow going to be less here? Are they planning on mixing being the reason?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 9:34:04 GMT -6
1-2 inches until it hits St.Clair country lol .... so why is the snow going to be less here? Are they planning on mixing being the reason? Yes rain will be a factor but surface flow is northeasterly so they might be 'overdoing' it with the rain, bigger issue is probably the freezing drizzle/light freezing rain once the dendrites leave and low level moisture still remains. I generally like the idea of a flat 2" with .05 to .10" of 'stuff' i.e freezing rain, grauple etc. Either way a WWA will be issued tonight almost certainly as it will be more significant then the previous 2 events with the potential road glazing perhaps more of an issue this go around then so much threat from any snow. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 9:45:37 GMT -6
GFS sticking with it's cards for now from last run, still showing around 2" for most of the southern half of the area including the immediate metro.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 9:54:30 GMT -6
New 12Z GEM says St. Louis and points east can stuff it and gives us the rock as the shield hits the 'DAM" and disappears into nothingness. A decent 3-4" for the Ozarks however but then vanishes as it moves into eastern Missouri/Illinois.
Still has the Thursday system, so not all is bad... XD
In fact the H5, H7, and H85 vorts are almost the text book track for us.
GFS now has a solid hit for the southeastern half of the area up to the metro now with that system as well. So if for some reason Monday busts we've got another watcher lined up on it's heels. Time is more ideal as well occurring largely at night...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2018 10:04:30 GMT -6
12z gfs is on board for Thursday...
Temps are sketchy though.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 11, 2018 10:23:49 GMT -6
I must say winter last year wasn’t the same without these Friv posts... makes things so much more entertaining and exciting lol
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 11, 2018 10:29:47 GMT -6
Just need to resurrect the Friv-o-meter. Then life is complete in weather land.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 10:37:42 GMT -6
RAP experimental 39 hours 15Z run says we're singing in the rain in the metro on south with maybe a dusting at the tail end.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 10:41:01 GMT -6
FV3-GFS somewhat drier as well this run with 1-2" from the 3 to 4 it showed last run. Given the ratios and time of day (afternoon hit) probably a heavy dusting to spots of an inch in reality...
Still east with Thursday's system but trending westward still so the trend is good.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 11, 2018 10:46:15 GMT -6
right on cue....lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 10:56:49 GMT -6
Here we go...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 11, 2018 11:00:18 GMT -6
Cut-off lows lifting out of texas/GOM without a fresh feed of cold air usually turn into cold rains...with maybe some sloppy wet snow. At this point...color me skeptical of Thursday.
As for tomorrow... This still looks like a 2" or less event. I am hard pressed to come up with 3". The location of the surface low really isn't a factor as this event is almost entirely driven by midlevel frontogenetic forcing (squeezing of the thermal gradient) and large scale lift from the RER of the Great Lakes jet max.
I expect a thin band to our north late tonight... but that will fade with the focus down near the Ozarks up into metro south for tomorrow. I think...dusting to 2" across the entire viewing area... with 1-2 along and southeast of I-44...roughly.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2018 11:20:31 GMT -6
Cut-off lows lifting out of texas/GOM without a fresh feed of cold air usually turn into cold rains...with maybe some sloppy wet snow. At this point...color me skeptical of Thursday. As for tomorrow... This still looks like a 2" or less event. I am hard pressed to come up with 3". The location of the surface low really isn't a factor as this event is almost entirely driven by midlevel frontogenetic forcing (squeezing of the thermal gradient) and large scale lift from the RER of the Great Lakes jet max. I expect a thin band to our north late tonight... but that will fade with the focus down near the Ozarks up into metro south for tomorrow. I think...dusting to 2" across the entire viewing area... with 1-2 along and southeast of I-44...roughly. As unrealistic as it maybe, it's hard to avoid getting sucked in... The old, "if only"... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 11, 2018 11:37:15 GMT -6
still for me, main show shld be to my south. might see a trace imby but any chance of an inch of snow stays south of 44 imo. nam always juices things up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 11, 2018 11:41:37 GMT -6
i think the models have been signifying a retreating cold air mass later this week. i suspect late week could be a "wasted" system, and frustrating to this board.
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