arnoldmo
Weather Weenie
141 and Astraway, Arnold MO.
Posts: 29 
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Post by arnoldmo on Nov 2, 2018 13:58:45 GMT -6
Yes...yes it is. Unlikely but also not impossible especially being 5/6 days out. There have been hints of something developing for days now. Now there is an even stronger temp gradient and a decent system. Ya never know... Maybe someone can help me out with this one...I remember in the late 90's we had a good 3-5 inch snow across the area on I believe November 13th. Does anyone remember that system? I believe it was Nov 2/3 1991... clipper system brought me some nice birthday snow... like 2-3 inches I believe. If my calculations are correct... That would make Today or Tomorrow or Chris' Birthday? Arnoldmo |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2018 14:03:47 GMT -6
That is a nice digital snow storm next week!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 2, 2018 14:06:19 GMT -6
Just looking at the models, its almost jarring to see all these wrapped up mid latitude cyclones one after the other. Very refreshing after the last few winters of sheared out mess after sheared out mess
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2018 14:25:21 GMT -6
GEFS agrees pretty well with the Euro track-wise on snowfall.
It's hard to tell with the limited UKMET products that are available, but it does appear like something is brewing on it too.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 14:35:45 GMT -6
Someone mentioned this possibility the other day and therefore deserves credit, but I don't recall who did. BWG mentioned this but mentioned it as possible sleet. IMO either or the same in my book |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 14:37:34 GMT -6
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook highlights severe weather probabilities for Monday for areas just south of St. Louis and in the eastern Ohio Valley through the southeast Atlantic coast for Election Day.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 14:39:34 GMT -6
Someone mentioned this possibility the other day and therefore deserves credit, but I don't recall who did. BWG mentioned this but mentioned it as possible sleet. IMO either or the same in my book Yep mentioned this I believe on Halloween about large sleet/grauple potential in the more vigorous updrafts/cores, seem to of hit it on the head. Thunder was also reported likely due to the marginal MUCAPEs this activity should subside once the sun goes down and the shortwave weakens/departs. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 14:42:33 GMT -6
Looks like one of those cells is looking decent near St. Peters probably some small hail and a rumble or 2 of thunder with that.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 14:43:05 GMT -6
yeah the interesting thing is that the pattern continues into early the following week on the gfs with a good snowstorm in southern mo. not saying we have 2 chances of snow necessarily but another digital snowstorm around the 13th or 14th thanks to a 500 mb closed off low tracking across the mo ar border. 850 temp profile says cold air in good supply. perhaps one of these will verify. cpc says ultimately temp and precip pattern begin to look el ninoish.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 14:44:01 GMT -6
Looks like one of those cells is looking decent near St. Peters probably some small hail and a rumble or 2 of thunder with that. quite a bit of thunder in dardenne prairie |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 14:44:48 GMT -6
happy birthday chris
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 14:46:54 GMT -6
Models coming in with decent agreement for a solid band of gusty showers and storms during the overnight Saturday night/Sunday morning between 2AM-8AM to ring in the end of Daylight Savings Time.
P.S. That's also meant to be a PSA to change your clocks back 1 hour before bed Saturday Night.  |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 2, 2018 14:48:41 GMT -6
Digital snowstorm! I love it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 14:49:32 GMT -6
Already the next wave after that for Monday is lining up. It's been a long time since we've seen a almost continuous parade of rather decent systems in quite some time that has be this persistent. As been said before hopefully that's the overall theme going forward.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 14:53:28 GMT -6
We can't keep that pace up, and there will be some lulls. But the base pattern and state of the atmosphere over North America looks like a completely different planet compared to the second half of 2017 and into the early part of this year. Things started to return to "normal" after that.
Remember that nature balances out...often times in big ways.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 14:57:59 GMT -6
well id have to say, thursday looks to me like a shallow cold event with fr rn and sleet ending as snow. rush hr thursday...well if you need to plan to wfh do it. if early the following week pans out the way gfs says, thats a significant mainly snow for us.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Nov 2, 2018 14:59:24 GMT -6
Rain & smaller than pea size hail here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 15:21:52 GMT -6
LSX AFD throws a mention of the Wednesday Night/Thursday system with it being a possible mixing event and decent model agreement for this far out.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 2, 2018 15:27:06 GMT -6
Getting some pretty good shots of CG lightning here as well as some moderate rain. Haven't seen any hail/sleet nor have I heard any hit the metal cap on the the fireplace chimney. The sky has that funky greenish color so I'm guessing there's some in the clouds
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2018 15:31:02 GMT -6
GFS has your blue norther, Coz...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 15:44:05 GMT -6
GFS has your blue norther, Coz... Might rival the Great Blue Norther of 1911 lol Holds all kinds of temp records. Will be curious to see if the gfs spins up a monster like the euro. I believe that was a severe bias for the euro last season at this range unfortunately. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2018 15:50:29 GMT -6
EURO looks overcooked, IMO. I'd side closer to the overrunning setup that the GFS shows and the EC ensemble mean seems to agree with that.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 2, 2018 15:58:46 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!!
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Post by REB on Nov 2, 2018 16:09:31 GMT -6
Chris, •*¨*•♫♪ღ░H░A░P░P░Y░ღ░B░I░R░T░H░D░A░Y░ ღ♪♫•*¨* •Happy Birthday To You♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨*•♫♪Happy Birthday To You♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨*• ♫♪Happy Birthday,♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨•*¨*•♫♪ღღ♪♫•*¨* •Happy Birthday To You♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨*•♫♪and many more♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•¨* •♫♪Have a great day  )♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨... |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 2, 2018 16:24:35 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, to the man in charge! Chris Corner would not be what it is without you! We are thankful for you, hope you have a splendid birthday and great year!
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 2, 2018 16:46:52 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, to the man in charge! Chris Corner would not be what it is without you! We are thankful for you, hope you have a splendid birthday and great year! |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 2, 2018 16:47:09 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, to the man in charge! Chris Corner would not be what it is without you! We are thankful for you, hope you have a splendid birthday and great year! |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 2, 2018 16:47:32 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, to the man in charge! Chris Corner would not be what it is without you! We are thankful for you, hope you have a splendid birthday and great year! |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 2, 2018 16:48:00 GMT -6
happy birthday chris
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2018 17:02:13 GMT -6
Thanks for the happy birthday wishes everyone. It is...in fact...today. I picked today to stop by and visit a place I have driven by hundreds of times over the years...but never gone in...and our MTW friend was out of town. I believe he is on his way back with fresh shrimp from Biloxi! I did pick up some honey and fresh raspberry jam...  |
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)♪♫•*¨*•.♥.•*¨...
