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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2018 12:02:07 GMT -6
Yes. Nice. The first "digital" snow of the season just occurred. This is getting exciting.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 12:03:52 GMT -6
FV3-GFS has the system as well, but farther north so mainly rain but does show some backside flurries/snow showers which seems more likely at this point given the time of year. Plenty of time to watch evolve as usual though.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 2, 2018 12:06:53 GMT -6
We are taking the scenic route to Giant City State Park tomorrow. I guess can't resist these drives in the fall. Then next weekend we are heading down to Table Rock Lake and I hope there is still some color left there. I love this time of year May be a little past peak. Wife and I had some really nice colors starting to pop last weekend on our trip to Van Buren/Current River. Also drove through Peck Ranch viewing the elk and the evening light was really illuminating the yellows. The drive down and back was neat because you could see the difference in phases as you changed elevation through the hill country/Ozark mountains. I freaking love it down there. I know this weekend's going to be great. There's a lot of trees that have picked out and Southern Illinois but there's still some green out there too. It's going to be fun. One of the things I've noticed is the trees that surround big lakes or a little bit slower |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 2, 2018 12:08:15 GMT -6
Yes. Nice. The first "digital" snow of the season just occurred. This is getting exciting. Better get that digital snow v. real snow spreadsheet going! |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2018 12:09:35 GMT -6
Yes. Nice. The first "digital" snow of the season just occurred. This is getting exciting. Better get that digital snow v. real snow spreadsheet going! Already on it. I logged 4" (Kuchera method) for the 144-168 window. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 2, 2018 12:09:51 GMT -6
Meanwhile in the shorter but still mid term the Election Day storm looks to feature a possible Severe Weather outbreak anywhere from St. Louis to the Gulf Coast with the Tennessee Valley into the mid-south being the bullseye. If we can slow the system down by 4 to 8 hours and track it just a tad more north and we could be in business for some autumn season tornado action seems to be generally trending that way. Winds on the backside look to be quite brisk as well in the 30-45 mph range depending on how deep this puppy bombs out over the lower Great Lakes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 2, 2018 12:10:00 GMT -6
12Z GFS is fun for Next Thursday...  Yes...yes it is. Unlikely but also not impossible especially being 5/6 days out. There have been hints of something developing for days now. Now there is an even stronger temp gradient and a decent system. Ya never know... Maybe someone can help me out with this one...I remember in the late 90's we had a good 3-5 inch snow across the area on I believe November 13th. Does anyone remember that system? I believe it was Nov 2/3 1991... clipper system brought me some nice birthday snow... like 2-3 inches I believe. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 2, 2018 12:15:34 GMT -6
We are taking the scenic route to Giant City State Park tomorrow. I guess can't resist these drives in the fall. Then next weekend we are heading down to Table Rock Lake and I hope there is still some color left there. I love this time of year May be a little past peak. Wife and I had some really nice colors starting to pop last weekend on our trip to Van Buren/Current River. Also drove through Peck Ranch viewing the elk and the evening light was really illuminating the yellows. The drive down and back was neat because you could see the difference in phases as you changed elevation through the hill country/Ozark mountains. I freaking love it down there. My wife and I drove down to Bluff Road starting in Columbia heading towards Prairie du Rocher last week. Colors were starting to come out. We cut it short because I had my first ever bout of vertigo. I hope it's my last one. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2018 12:21:09 GMT -6
November 6 1991. Several inches of snow. I know the date because i almost died. Senior year in hs. I had anaphylactic shock from eating Brazil Nuts. Mom rushed me to the washington hospital, roads were horrible. By the time we got there I was gasping for air and my head was swollen like a basketball. Good times.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 2, 2018 12:39:40 GMT -6
Seems like everyone remember those birthday snows and the day they almost died snows. I wonder if I'll remember the day I die snow? ;-)
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 12:49:19 GMT -6
24 hour euro charts certainly look interesting for the day 6-7 range as well.
Will be challenging for something to spin up on the heels of these other big systems and with an impressive artic air mass coming down.
However, there is potential. Hell, the euro rapidly intensifies the storm, just a little too late.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 2, 2018 12:59:59 GMT -6
Better get that digital snow v. real snow spreadsheet going! Already on it. I logged 4" (Kuchera method) for the 144-168 window. Are you going to do different digital snow time windows? I think it would be interesting to see the digital snow we received at the 7 day, 5 day, 3 day, and 1 day timeframe v. actual snow realized |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2018 13:02:47 GMT -6
Euro has a kc to kirksville snow next Thursday. Definitely going to be some quite cold air coming in behind that system
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 13:08:34 GMT -6
Yes...yes it is. Unlikely but also not impossible especially being 5/6 days out. There have been hints of something developing for days now. Now there is an even stronger temp gradient and a decent system. Ya never know... Maybe someone can help me out with this one...I remember in the late 90's we had a good 3-5 inch snow across the area on I believe November 13th. Does anyone remember that system? I believe it was Nov 2/3 1991... clipper system brought me some nice birthday snow... like 2-3 inches I believe. That one I was too young to remember. I'm speaking on one when I was in 3rd grade I believe...which would probably make it November 13th 1997. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2018 13:08:44 GMT -6
thunder and rain here.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2018 13:11:17 GMT -6
Already on it. I logged 4" (Kuchera method) for the 144-168 window. Are you going to do different digital snow time windows? I think it would be interesting to see the digital snow we received at the 7 day, 5 day, 3 day, and 1 day timeframe v. actual snow realized Yes. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 13:19:12 GMT -6
12Z GFS is fun for Next Thursday... Yes...yes it is. Unlikely but also not impossible especially being 5/6 days out. There have been hints of something developing for days now. Now there is an even stronger temp gradient and a decent system. Ya never know... Maybe someone can help me out with this one...I remember in the late 90's we had a good 3-5 inch snow across the area on I believe November 13th. Does anyone remember that system? yes in 1997 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2018 13:23:09 GMT -6
I believe it was Nov 2/3 1991... clipper system brought me some nice birthday snow... like 2-3 inches I believe. That one I was too young to remember. I'm speaking on one when I was in 3rd grade I believe...which would probably make it November 13th 1997. sorry you beat me to it....i should have read all the way through first but at least you have confirmation. that snow showed up abt a week prior in the models as well yet forecasts downplayed the snow as more of a rainy scenario. once precip started it was hard to displace the cold. i remember dave m talking about that. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 492 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 2, 2018 13:23:40 GMT -6
Hail in WashMO.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 2, 2018 13:23:50 GMT -6
Interesting. The Euro and FV3 look pretty similar with that winter storm next week. Those are some unusually high totals for November. Normally I wouldn't give that much thought but the Euro is on board so...
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 2, 2018 13:28:33 GMT -6
I would say we're halfway through the peak in Southern Illinois. I see gobs of trees that are still green.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 13:37:53 GMT -6
Thunderstorm with pea size hail on east side of Washington MO.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 13:43:36 GMT -6
That one I was too young to remember. I'm speaking on one when I was in 3rd grade I believe...which would probably make it November 13th 1997. sorry you beat me to it....i should have read all the way through first but at least you have confirmation. that snow showed up abt a week prior in the models as well yet forecasts downplayed the snow as more of a rainy scenario. once precip started it was hard to displace the cold. i remember dave m talking about that. Thank you. I've been looking for someone else who remembered that for a long time now lol. I do remember it being something of a surprise, and riding the bus home after an early dismissal (uphill both ways, btw). Even at 8 years old I thought it was awesome to have a significant snow in November. I'm sure if next week happens it will be a northern MO system. Sure would be neat to have at least some snow showers around for opening weekend of deer season though. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 13:45:22 GMT -6
Hood of my truck and roof tops in Washington MO  |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 13:45:53 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 2, 2018 13:47:26 GMT -6
Streets  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Nov 2, 2018 13:49:24 GMT -6
I’m eureka looking south  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 13:50:25 GMT -6
Dang Tilawn must have been quite a downpour there to coat the streets like that!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2018 13:55:31 GMT -6
Someone mentioned this possibility the other day and therefore deserves credit, but I don't recall who did.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 2, 2018 13:56:04 GMT -6
The 12z euro is actually pretty incredible for this early in November. KC gets 11 inches of snow this run...Columbia gets 4 inches...STL and Chicago get 0.04 inches lmao.
Might need to dig into the ensembles now that we have multiple globals on board.
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