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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 20, 2018 12:34:45 GMT -6
Few showers starting to pop again.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 20, 2018 20:59:28 GMT -6
Looks like fall is here to stay with the CPC forecasting below normal temperatures for much of the central CONUS in the 6-10, 8-14, and one month outlook. Goodbye summer, dont let the door hit you on the way out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 21, 2018 4:36:59 GMT -6
And just like that, it's pouring. No lightning, no thunder, just a downpour.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 21, 2018 6:39:02 GMT -6
Had some rain. After that moved through then I heard thunder. Pretty good series of rumbles.
Now the sun is poking out
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 21, 2018 7:00:19 GMT -6
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 21, 2018 7:50:39 GMT -6
should we still be expecting more widespread rain in the immediate metro today? or just a slight chance of some pop-up stuff?
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 21, 2018 8:49:39 GMT -6
Anything in metro should be spotty. More widespread stuff south of the area. Probably.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 21, 2018 11:53:04 GMT -6
FV3-GFS and Canadian/GEM show our first heavy frost area-wide and a possible light freeze (outside the immediate metro) for the 30th-1st. FV3-GFS also shows a heavy snow storm for northern Iowa and central Wisconsin on the 30th with perhaps a few flurries as south as Quincy to Chicago, IL. If indeed trends hold this could a strong front loaded Winter for us lasting into January but things look somewhat less favorable late January into February with another late season winter assault in March (especially mid to late and 1st half of April). Regardless things look pretty good for an early end to the growing season and help cut down on the bugs. The Hummingbirds have been hitting the flowers and feeders hard the past week or so likely readying for their migration southward, and the Squirrels are really going nuts after the Acorns and burying them, Nature knows something is up.
And yes I do believe are chances of a White Christmas looks solid this year and possibly a small chance of something freezing or Frozen around Thanksgiving as well.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 21, 2018 12:10:55 GMT -6
Anyone know if that swath of precip in OK is coming this way? I wish it’d stay south into Arkansas!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 21, 2018 13:34:21 GMT -6
Anyone know if that swath of precip in OK is coming this way? I wish it’d stay south into Arkansas! Might just reach our far southern tier of counties very late tonight into tomorrow AM though should be more of a drizzle/mist to very light rain at worst, but everyone else should stay dry, looks to be a cloudy day south of I-70 though with more sun north and hence warmer (around 75 for the high as opposed to 65 to 70 south of I-70 under the cloud cover). |
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40 
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Post by kkwhit on Sept 21, 2018 13:36:53 GMT -6
Just back from Ireland and got to experience Hurricane/Tropical Storm Ali in Ireland. I was on the far west coast near the Cliffs of Moher on Tuesday and it was unlike anything I have ever witnessed. Then Flew out of Dublin on Wednesday and while many flights were canceled because of the wind, our Aer Lingus pilot was able to get us out. Was quite an eerie feeling sitting on a plane at the gate and feeling it swaying back and forth from the wind.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 21, 2018 14:15:10 GMT -6
I dunno Belleville I hope it goes south
Of Bonne Terre! We are working outside today and tomorrow!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 21, 2018 14:22:45 GMT -6
should we still be expecting more widespread rain in the immediate metro today? or just a slight chance of some pop-up stuff? We have pretty much had what we will get. I do not expect much more than spot showers late tonight into Sat morning. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 21, 2018 16:58:45 GMT -6
There's report of 12.51" of rain in Fittstown Oklahoma in a 24 hour period.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 21, 2018 17:12:01 GMT -6
Models are bringing down an impressive chunk of polar airmass towards next weekend...could see some downright chilly weather as we close out the month.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 21, 2018 18:24:49 GMT -6
Fairly strong tornado has struck the Ottawa, Ontario area
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 21, 2018 21:24:56 GMT -6
I've really been watching the trends unfold seasonally, and sort of showed my cards in the last post that I'm looking at a more wintry winter. I had thought that 1) El Nino might be over-forecast; and 2) more west based than usual. The verbiage in the cpc prognostic discussion is consistent with my thoughts. I have not decided if this winter will be normal in terms of cold and snow; or if it will be snowier than normal. I would not put any money down on a below normal snow this winter. The last two winters, I was confident in below normal snow - predicted 6 inches two winters ago, and 9 inches this past winter. I think this upcoming winter will be at least normal in the snowfall department. I know this goes against Dave's thinking (I still haven't watched his fall forecast, but heard a synopsis of it). I also think we are on the cusp of some blockbuster winter weather - keep in mind that 1977 was actually a weak El Nino winter if I recall correctly. I typically like to wait until October before really putting anything out there. I'm not buying into a book end winter either. I think we will get some teaser patterns in the Fall, but to me, December, January timeframes, we may tally up some good wintry potential. As long as we keep breaking down the drought through the plains, and I don't see anything to indicate otherwise, we should be able to keep this forum alive this winter. This should work well with Chris' new schedule. I'm feeling encouraged with the latest discussion on the El Nino. I also think AO and NAO will have a bigger influence here. Let's see. Counterpoints?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 21, 2018 21:51:17 GMT -6
No counterpoint here. I continue to feel good about this upcoming winter. Have felt that way since April. Also great to see OK and TX bust their drought. It helps when that part of the country isn't a dust bowl.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 21, 2018 22:00:42 GMT -6
We should have had a pool going as to how much sleep Chris got on Sunday evening. 6+ hours 3-6 hours 1-3 hours Less than an hour Banging head on wall all night. Sunday night... ZERO 48 hours straight... with no sleep. Last night... 5 hours. In the 60 minutes... 15...I fell asleep sitting up in my chair...responding to this thread  In IT, that used to be my life. People have come to depend on me at all hours. I'm too old for that now. I can no longer even do short sprints of long hours. I've been noticing how my body just cannot do it. As we do more offshoring, I have to be available early in the morning, and often work late at night to get things ready for India. Now, my employer has announced up to 10% headcount reduction. I'm very concerned that loss of personnel will result in even longer hours. Years ago, I had no problem working 24 hours straight because I knew that I would get the problem solved, and then go home to bed. That's not an option now because they expect us to immediately work on the next project. I just cannot do that anymore. I can't even count on offshoring to do the job as well, and I have to clean up (redesign) the mess or bad design that they come up with.
You are a better person than me, Chris. You look sharp in the mornings. I set my alarm for 4:30 and immediately tune to fox 2 while I'm sifting through emails and messages from India....but I'm often up until past 11 or 12 even later. I'm a data modeler, but my job goes beyond designing databases with all the bureaucracy and paperwork. I cannot imagine the work that is required to prepare a presentation that you have to do and communicate a sharp, clear message at 4 am, and hope that you get a positive cycle of validation with how the weather unfolds. For me, my cycle of validation occurs months later, even years later, when my design works, or not. But I don't have to provide a clear presentation everyday. Hats off to you, sir.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 21, 2018 22:06:26 GMT -6
No counterpoint here. I continue to feel good about this upcoming winter. Have felt that way since April. Also great to see OK and TX bust their drought. It helps when that part of the country isn't a dust bowl. In a weird way, I hope somebody throws some counterpoints out there. There's got to be signals I'm missing, but with all the digging I'm doing, I see no compelling reason to bet on a mild winter. Sure there's interdecadal trends, but trends get broken - at least temporarily - otherwise, we'd be hot all year long. LOL. Certainly not dissing the cpc forecast for a mild winter - I'm just thinking there's so much more that factors into where we land weather wise. Where's Friv with his arctic ice reports, by the way? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 21, 2018 22:25:51 GMT -6
Models fish tailing again showing Summer returning with a vengeance at the end of the month, start of October. A reality check or just a blip due to the flipping pattern throwing the models off.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 22, 2018 0:55:19 GMT -6
News for the MTW originals just saw on Facebook that Friday night was David Koeller's last broadcast on KRBK in Springfield, Mo. After 6 years there he is moving on to a station in Omaha.
For those who don't know David helped set up and debug this forum. IIRC before starting in Springfield he was an intern at KTVI
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 22, 2018 4:14:19 GMT -6
Rain rain go away! So much for finishing up our holding tank project at the cabin today! Gotta love cold fronts! They have a mind of their own!
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Post by ams3389 on Sept 22, 2018 5:07:28 GMT -6
Good Morning from Springfield MO... left STL around 230am and settling in for weekend. Rain from Rolla to hotel. Nice brisk wind and it was chilly. Fall in the air!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 22, 2018 7:40:07 GMT -6
No counterpoint here. I continue to feel good about this upcoming winter. Have felt that way since April. Also great to see OK and TX bust their drought. It helps when that part of the country isn't a dust bowl. In a weird way, I hope somebody throws some counterpoints out there. There's got to be signals I'm missing, but with all the digging I'm doing, I see no compelling reason to bet on a mild winter. Sure there's interdecadal trends, but trends get broken - at least temporarily - otherwise, we'd be hot all year long. LOL. Certainly not dissing the cpc forecast for a mild winter - I'm just thinking there's so much more that factors into where we land weather wise. Where's Friv with his arctic ice reports, by the way? I predict a big winter for the east coast weenies. Hell, the FV3 already shows a Nor'easter in early October. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 22, 2018 9:18:53 GMT -6
In a weird way, I hope somebody throws some counterpoints out there. There's got to be signals I'm missing, but with all the digging I'm doing, I see no compelling reason to bet on a mild winter. Sure there's interdecadal trends, but trends get broken - at least temporarily - otherwise, we'd be hot all year long. LOL. Certainly not dissing the cpc forecast for a mild winter - I'm just thinking there's so much more that factors into where we land weather wise. Where's Friv with his arctic ice reports, by the way? I predict a big winter for the east coast weenies. Hell, the FV3 already shows a Nor'easter in early October. That's always a safe bet. I wonder how many once-in-a-lifetime storms they'll get this year? |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 22, 2018 10:58:04 GMT -6
News for the MTW originals just saw on Facebook that Friday night was David Koeller's last broadcast on KRBK in Springfield, Mo. After 6 years there he is moving on to a station in Omaha. For those who don't know David helped set up and debug this forum. IIRC before starting in Springfield he was an intern at KTVI Whoo hoo! I can watch him! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 22, 2018 11:55:52 GMT -6
News for the MTW originals just saw on Facebook that Friday night was David Koeller's last broadcast on KRBK in Springfield, Mo. After 6 years there he is moving on to a station in Omaha. For those who don't know David helped set up and debug this forum. IIRC before starting in Springfield he was an intern at KTVI Whoo hoo! I can watch him! You can watch Omaha in C Springs?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 22, 2018 12:24:14 GMT -6
The sun has returned to the metro with clearing skies.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 22, 2018 14:32:52 GMT -6
If you are bored tonight and cannot find anything to watch on tv... checkout the livestream of this year's mid america emmy awards from Kansas City. I will be there...nominated three times. If I am blessed enough to win.. MTW will get a big shout out! www.smtlive.com/emmys/ |
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