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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2018 15:35:39 GMT -6
I wouldn't say its likely, but I would keep an eye on that supercell SE of Des Moines. It could grow upscale into something and the environment around here is getting, and will continue to become more favorable for organized storms later into the evening
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 15:37:21 GMT -6
I wouldn't say its likely, but I would keep an eye on that supercell SE of Des Moines. It could grow upscale into something and the environment around here is getting, and will continue to become more favorable for organized storms later into the evening Yes |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 16:19:04 GMT -6
It is an interesting set-up. The best hope for storms for STL will be that southern most supercell growing upscale and following the instability and theta-e gradient to the south-southeast...roughly along the warm front. Adding to the potential intensity of the storms is the influx of the EML related elevated mixed layer and associated steepening mid-level lapse rates. That plume of EML air will impinge on the western flank of the any storms/complex dropping south...which could make for some interesting storm structures...should this scenario play out.   |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 16:19:39 GMT -6
71 mph in Ottumwa
KOTM 192216Z AUTO 33039G62KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR FEW015 SCT036 BKN046 21/19 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 34062/2216 WSHFT 2202 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB12 P0019 T02110189
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 19, 2018 16:21:10 GMT -6
Apparently some pretty good damage in Iowa from a nader.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 16:37:04 GMT -6
Video from the aftermath of the tornado that I posted the picture. Mallard Pointe Drive, NW Bondurant, Iowa Posted to Facebook by Alec Nehas
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 16:44:26 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 16:45:01 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 16:45:21 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 16:45:39 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 17:07:07 GMT -6
The wail of those tornado sirens always sends a shiver down my spine. Especially when the clouds look ominous
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 19, 2018 17:10:59 GMT -6
That tornadic storm across SE IA is trying to backbuild and drop SE...might be a watcher for the NE counties later this evening if that continues.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2018 17:32:37 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2018 17:34:59 GMT -6
Spc says 80% for a watch. Nothing yet...
Not sure how that complex will do this far south...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2018 17:35:15 GMT -6
DISCUSSION...Latest HRRR guidance suggests the storms in southeast
Iowa may continue to grow upscale through the evening. Effective
shear of 40 to 45 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis and MUCAPE
of 2000 to 2500 J/kg supports continued growth of these existing
storms. If a strong enough cold-pool develops, a MCS may develop and
persist through much of the overnight period. Wind damage will be
the primary threat as these storms organize into a more linear mode.
Once these storms congeal into a linear segment, the tornado risk
will likely decrease as low-level shear vectors will be oriented
mostly parallel to any linear development. Some hail is possible,
but modest mid-level lapse rates (6 to 6.5 C/km) will preclude a
greater hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed within the hour to cover the damaging wind threat into the
overnight period.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 19, 2018 17:56:16 GMT -6
Watch just north. We may get it in st.louis tonight
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 17:56:41 GMT -6
74mph Springfield MO
METAR: KSGF 192352Z 31013G30KT 10SM -TSRA FEW044 SCT085 BKN110 23/18 A3000 RMK AO2 PK WND 32064/2323 LTG DSNT SE-W RAB24 TSB39 SLP147 P0010 60010 T02280178 10361 20222 53039
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 19, 2018 18:31:15 GMT -6
Man this thing needs to expand more on it's western flank. Definitely looks to be a storm for folks in Illinois. 😢
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 19, 2018 18:57:07 GMT -6
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jul 19, 2018 19:10:10 GMT -6
Wow! Pretty scary stuff and imagine scenario that after dark.
If it stays together how is that complex on radar going to miss the metro area? Seems we should be in the watch area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2018 19:19:46 GMT -6
Those are some strong supercells north of here
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 19, 2018 19:24:15 GMT -6
Unconfirmed report of 6 people dead in Branson after duck boat capsized in severe storm earlier this evening...efforting to confirm that data. More on Fox 2 News at 9pm.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 19:25:40 GMT -6
Good pressure rises ahead of the line... cold pool looks to be getting going. This will have some wind as it moves south along the river... may take the same path as a couple weeks ago.
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 19, 2018 19:25:59 GMT -6
Anybody able to find any reliable information about what's going at Table Rock Lake? I'm seeing reports of a serious incident related to severe storm in Branson. I don't want to be more specific yet because I can't verify anything and I don't want to spread conjecture...
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 19, 2018 19:26:51 GMT -6
Unconfirmed report of 6 people dead in Branson after duck boat capsized in severe storm earlier this evening...efforting to confirm that data. More on Fox 2 News at 9pm. Yeah, ok that's what I'm seeing as well. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 19, 2018 19:31:16 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 19:32:56 GMT -6
Hooking just west of Quincy
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 19, 2018 19:38:46 GMT -6
Sister says divers are looking for the missing. Around 30 went into water, 6 are dead.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 19:42:55 GMT -6
Looks like a second line is developing on the MO/IA border. Could be a loud night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2018 19:44:58 GMT -6
That’s some horrible news. That happened right across the lake from our condo which I’ll be at later
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