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Post by bdgwx on Jun 1, 2018 10:41:40 GMT -6
That is maddening.
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Post by julieann0118 on Jun 1, 2018 10:50:25 GMT -6
How is tomorrow evening looking for Maryland heights? Concert tickets. 😔
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 1, 2018 11:12:48 GMT -6
Moderate risk today for parts of Nebraska for that MCS. SPC thinks it will dive southeastward into Mo overnight
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 1, 2018 12:11:31 GMT -6
SPC Day 2 outlook updated 36 or so minutes ago... expanded the area quite a bit.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 1, 2018 12:12:16 GMT -6
Whatever happens tonight will set the stage for what happens tomorrow. There's a lot of confidence that an MCS will form in Nebraska and sag southeast possibly encroaching deep into Missouri. This may spoil the airmass and mitigate the severe risk. MCS propagation vectors are notoriously difficult to model though so we really have no idea on it's precise track. We already know a bias is for models to underestimate their propagation speed. If the MCS races through MO early then there may be more recovery time for the atmosphere destabilize again. One thing we're all accustomed to here in MO is that it is more likely to see a deescalation of risk as we get closer than an escalation of risk. Will tomorrow be different? If it's anything negivite that will take away from our storms chances, it will happen. Seems to be our luck right in STL!!! UGH! |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 1, 2018 13:02:25 GMT -6
SPC Day 2 outlook updated 36 or so minutes ago... expanded the area quite a bit. They also removed the hatched (significant) area. I can't blame them. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 1, 2018 13:23:57 GMT -6
In other words...if MakeItRain were still posting he'd point out that the BORECON number went up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 1, 2018 13:45:46 GMT -6
Our best chance at severe tomorrow may end up being the MCS itself if it can hold together somewhat. I just don't see the time for organized major redevelopment.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 1, 2018 13:47:36 GMT -6
Tomorrow will probably be another fantastic day of nothingness
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 1, 2018 14:00:56 GMT -6
Tomorrow will probably be another fantastic day of nothingness Heat and humidity. You forgot those. Tomorrow will have heat and humidity. Anyone else having incredible allergy problems? My eyes are watering and my nose is running like they haven't done in decades |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 1, 2018 14:01:35 GMT -6
SPC Day 2 outlook updated 36 or so minutes ago... expanded the area quite a bit. They also removed the hatched (significant) area. I can't blame them. I didnt realize there was a thatched area previously. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 1, 2018 14:28:30 GMT -6
18z NAM and Hi Res NAM look more encouraging for severe storms in the area tomorrow. We really aren't going to know that happens tomorrow until we see what that MCS does. It could overturn the atmosphere around here leaving us with nothing later in the day, it could set up a boundary across the area that serves as a focus for organized storms later in the day, or it could stay NW of here and leave the atmosphere very unstable for more action later in the day. MCS always have minds of their own
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 1, 2018 14:29:57 GMT -6
96 degrees. I didn't think we'd get that high. June 1 is the first day of the year where the record is 100. And we're making a run at it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 1, 2018 14:55:53 GMT -6
We blew away the warmest May on record by 2.2 degrees, that's a lot. Old record was 2012. Yay.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 1, 2018 15:10:17 GMT -6
18z NAM and Hi Res NAM look more encouraging for severe storms in the area tomorrow. We really aren't going to know that happens tomorrow until we see what that MCS does. It could overturn the atmosphere around here leaving us with nothing later in the day, it could set up a boundary across the area that serves as a focus for organized storms later in the day, or it could stay NW of here and leave the atmosphere very unstable for more action later in the day. MCS always have minds of their own NAM just seems to have been a bit extreme the last couple of set ups. The diffluence it shows in the upper levels tomorrow is ridiculous... it actually closes off a low all the way up to 250 as the storms increase during the afternoon. Not sure what to make of it.
As usual.... models just continue to struggle.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 1, 2018 15:51:36 GMT -6
Well... the 700mb temps are mighty toasty tonight and tomorrow over central and western Missouri...running 12 to 14c depending on where and which model you look at. It is hard to image how the cap will break south of I-70 with that kind of warm air. The cap is somewhat weaker over eastern MO...11 to 12c along the Mississippi River.
I really have my doubts that an MCS makes it far into MO from the north or the west.
Instead... a surface outflow will penetrate south under the cap...how far is unknown...but then it festers in the heat through the day. I actually am quite concerned about the I-70 corridor tomorrow afternoon and evening as conceptually, an inactive outflow may end up close to that...and under the cap until later in the day.
I see a situation where multiple hp supercells develop on the edge of the cap near the outflow late in the day...but quickly become outflow dominant with severe wind and VERY large hail possible given the magnitude of the CAPE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 1, 2018 17:43:29 GMT -6
Shear didn't look overly impressive from what I've seen. 25-35kt mid-level winds may be enough to support supercell or bow echo development in stronger cores though. Tough to say how it will all play out when a decaying MCS is part of the puzzle...the scenario that Chris laid out with a lingering outflow boundary serving focus for development later in the day is a potentially volatile setup.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 1, 2018 19:17:38 GMT -6
Had some nice severe storms in SW MO yesterday evening. There were reports of tennis ball sized hail just east of Ozark. We took int a Springfield Cardinals game last night. We left the stadium about 9:30 and there was a severe storm near Nixa. I opted to sit and watch it pass to the east instead of driving through it at night. It dumped up to 4 inches of rain as well. I really don't care to ride out a severe storm in a 5th wheel trailer, so I'm hoping tomorrow's risk is overblown.
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Jun 1, 2018 20:08:46 GMT -6
I have to ump at a softball tournament in Moberly tomorrow so I will definitely have to keep an eye on things. I know one of the local stations out of Columbia seemed to be thinking early morning storms are going to keep any severe weather to the south of I-70.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 1, 2018 22:29:30 GMT -6
Is the MCS in question supposed to be moving faster to be a factor for our having or not having a bad evening tomorrow? It seems like it has a slower than anticipated forward progression.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 1, 2018 23:31:14 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 2, 2018 4:49:30 GMT -6
At 5:45 a.m. storms starting to fragment quite a bit over Northwestern Missouri with significantly less east progress than earlier this morning. They should continue to start to struggle as they encounter more stable air and stronger capping inversion to the east and Southeast. However strong winds will continue to be possible through central Missouri associated with a gradually weakening outflow boundary which may make it as far east as Saint Louis and as far South as between I44 and the Missouri River by late morning. That outflow boundary will serve as the focus for new storms this afternoon and this evening with the greatest risk of large hail and damaging winds roughly from Jefferson City through Saint Louis and points South and Southwest.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 2, 2018 5:05:23 GMT -6
Chris the boundary will or won't serve as the trigger for new storms? I'm a little confused.
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Post by scmhack on Jun 2, 2018 5:10:27 GMT -6
I just want these storms to come through, knock the temp down, and maybe kill power at the plant and get me out of work early. I do not want to work this 10 hour shift in the lab. At least the storms are keeping me occupied with something to watch on a slow day.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 2, 2018 6:27:46 GMT -6
it sure feels like storms are coming #MuggyAF outside this morning...
we need a soaker to keep us out of drought territory. due to the extreme cold April farmers are about 2 weeks late across the board nearly state wide with produce, a drought would only make it worse for those w/o irrigation🍅🌽🍑🍉
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 2, 2018 6:44:21 GMT -6
I would think Chris meant the outflow Will serve as a focus for storms later.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 2, 2018 6:45:10 GMT -6
Chris the boundary will or won't serve as the trigger for new storms? I'm a little confused. Unchecked voice to text. I was running late for my USAF weekend. The boundary WILL serve as primary focus. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 2, 2018 6:47:29 GMT -6
It'll be interesting to see how long the MCS holds together...the cluster of deep convection across NE MO doesn't seem to be weakening at this point with a well developed cold pool behind it.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 2, 2018 7:13:32 GMT -6
Meanwhile, yesterday in Big Sky, Montana. Video from KULR8 in Billings, Montana |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 2, 2018 7:32:21 GMT -6
Storms are intensifying again out in central MO, with a warning for jeff city. Line making steady progress toward the area. I'm sure this will screw things up for us severe wise later.
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