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Post by bdgwx on May 13, 2018 9:20:35 GMT -6
Hey coz, what are some of the rule-of-thumb techniques for forecasting same day high temperatures? Is it +10F from the 10:00am reading? If so that would put us at 93F today.
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Post by cozpregon on May 13, 2018 9:48:55 GMT -6
During the summer months that works pretty well- 90 by 1000am generally we will hit 100.
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Post by cozpregon on May 13, 2018 10:06:45 GMT -6
850 temps on days like these are best to guess high temps- air is mixing up to about 850 so bring that down dry adiabatically and should be fairly close- + 16/17 would take us to 91-92. Sometimes the airport out performs this- especially STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2018 11:05:45 GMT -6
The heat is one thing, but dewpoints are up near 70 making it just disgusting out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 13, 2018 12:07:51 GMT -6
The lack of severe weather this season is remarkable...seems to be a long-term trend overall the past several years.
This heat sucks...no spring this year.
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Post by jmg378s on May 13, 2018 15:25:16 GMT -6
Yeah I've kinda noticed a down turn of severe weather around here too over the last several years. I have no statistics to back it up, but sure seems that way to me. As for this year, just about the slowest I can remember...though wasn't 2012 really tame as well?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2018 16:15:18 GMT -6
Looks like we will have a dying MCS approach the area late tomorrow night. Hopefully it can hold together and bring some rain to most of the area. Tuesday looks like scattered thunderstorms but the activity tomorrow night will likely have a big say in where the storms fire Tuesday
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 13, 2018 16:23:31 GMT -6
Sooo, we found out we are most likely getting a PCS to Offutt AFB NE in the fall. I can not wait to experience severe weather again. Also can't wait to be within the same timezone as my family in O'fallon IL. Plus it's only a 6.5 hour drive away from them. Yay!
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 13, 2018 18:23:04 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 13, 2018 18:27:58 GMT -6
I think it was Chris that mentioned this last week. Low pressure in the GOM of the west coast of Florida has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |
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Post by cozpregon on May 13, 2018 19:43:54 GMT -6
850 temps on days like these are best to guess high temps- air is mixing up to about 850 so bring that down dry adiabatically and should be fairly close- + 16/17 would take us to 91-92. Sometimes the airport out performs this- especially STL Sometimes that works pretty good
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 13, 2018 20:48:10 GMT -6
Interesting feature on the 00z NAM. Nice MCS develops over Northern Mo tomorrow evening and moves SE toward the area. It starts to collapse as it does and the NAM has some gusty winds associated with that. We've seen some 30-40mph gust from remnant MCV's recently   |
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Post by jmg378s on May 13, 2018 21:40:13 GMT -6
Just not much shear in our area tomorrow night.
And with the mid-level flow looking fairly weak across the CONUS for the foreeseable future I'm not seeing any indications of anything significant severe-wise, around here especially, on the horizon either.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 14, 2018 4:44:19 GMT -6
The lack of severe weather this season is remarkable...seems to be a long-term trend overall the past several years. This heat sucks...no spring this year. Our weather really sucks! As far as anything interesting.... With the way Winter went I was really hoping Spring storms would of made up for it. Nope... 😞 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 14, 2018 4:52:25 GMT -6
We really need to get something out of tonight because models are backing qpf down the rest of the week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 14, 2018 7:39:05 GMT -6
All models are pretty consistent on showing a batch of storms developing in central MO and moving across the area late afternoon into the evening.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 14, 2018 9:00:00 GMT -6
All models are pretty consistent on showing a batch of storms developing in central MO and moving across the area late afternoon into the evening. Today? Or tomorrow? |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 14, 2018 10:34:05 GMT -6
STL on the slight risk edge today. Points N and W with higher chance SPC Today |
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 14, 2018 11:33:29 GMT -6
STL on the slight risk edge today. Points N and W with higher chance SPC TodayA little nudge in our direction, but a much bigger swing out East where they fear a derecho. Some areas in and around Maryland started today with a 5% risk level for damaging wind and are now up to 45% with talk of a possible upgrade to Moderate risk if it pans out. Another odd tidbit that I don't recall seeing too often is a marginal risk was added for east central Florida due to a tornado threat, but no wind or hail threat. I feel like usually for almost any potential thunderstorm they will at least put the 5% hail/wind threat in place, but not for that one. Next update will be due out around 3pm CDT. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 14, 2018 11:45:10 GMT -6
That is an interesting situation in the Mid Atlantic. Many of the storm scale models and global models are pretty much "meh" for severe weather in that area. But, the HRRR hits that area hard with a derecho. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out today.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 14, 2018 12:00:55 GMT -6
Storms firing west of the city. Looks to be a pretty good line setting up. Moving this direction. Fingers crossed - we could use the rain. And maybe it would knock the edge off the heat today.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 14, 2018 12:27:26 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 14, 2018 12:30:00 GMT -6
The watch has a high risk of severe winds associated with it. HRRR gets an MCS going out in central Mo and swings it through the area. Could see some straight line winds if that’s the case
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Post by jeepers on May 14, 2018 13:08:35 GMT -6
There's already scattered small severe stuff way out west.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 14, 2018 13:44:06 GMT -6
Impressive cluster getting together in central MO. Could be pretty good storms for most the area within a few hours!
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 14, 2018 14:45:44 GMT -6
Think they'll hold together?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 14, 2018 15:10:12 GMT -6
Think they'll hold together? There looks to be enough instability and shear to keep them going for the next several hours. Starting to see a meso vortex to the SW of Hannibal |
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Post by cozpregon on May 14, 2018 15:21:04 GMT -6
Think they'll hold together? There looks to be enough instability and shear to keep them going for the next several hours. Starting to see a meso vortex to the SW of Hannibal 64mph winds in Mexico. Solid cold pool getting organized... and dcapes approaching 1400 around here. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 14, 2018 15:27:49 GMT -6
There looks to be enough instability and shear to keep them going for the next several hours. Starting to see a meso vortex to the SW of Hannibal 64mph winds in Mexico. Solid cold pool getting organized... and dcapes approaching 1400 around here. Ya I noticed those high dcape values as well. Could be some strong gust if they maintain strength |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 14, 2018 15:28:58 GMT -6
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