Chris's Corner - Severe Weather Early this Week
May 6, 2024 11:10:26 GMT -6
guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters, jeepers, and 3 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on May 6, 2024 11:10:26 GMT -6
Sorry I was offline for a while. I had a close relative with a major medical crisis who needed incredibly dangerous surgery. In a truly miraculous series of events, he came through surgery and is recovering. God touched the hands of the surgeon who saved his life! There is along recovery ahead, but I can step away from that for a bit to update things in here....
There are two main severe weather threat this week. The first round is tonight after midnight and the second round is Wednesday late morning into the afternoon. How tonight and early tomorrow unfold with greatly impact location and potential severity of the severe threat for Wednesday.
As for tonight, we get the sloppy leftovers from the High Risk event in OK and KS later today. Those leftovers should form up into a pretty beefy line (or lines) of strong to severe storms what will spread across the region after midnight. The overall dynamics and kinematics are much stronger out west for sure. However, the influx of low level moisture and increasing southerly winds will help hold up instability values well into the night…with MU CAPE even increasing some just in advance of the storms after midnight. The hodographs show plenty of turning in the low levels and the orientation of the shear vectors, along with the magnitude, certainly give some concern for both strong surface winds and possible mesovortex/QLCS tornado development. The timing is about as bad as it gets… after midnight and before sunrise. Yawn! There will be plenty of cranky people I’m afraid by tomorrow morning because of wind, lightning and possibly warning alarms waking them up. I’m hoping things don’t get too out of hand. The level 2 risk is a good risk level for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Level 3 extended a bit more to the east with time.
I really think tonight’s storms will put the kibosh on the storm threat in our region tomorrow. But, until we see how things play out tonight, let’s at least keep half an eye on the chance for isolated strong storms tomorrow afternoon in the recovering airmass.
Attention then turns to what may end up being our main event… Wednesday. This has some nasty looking parameters coming together. Surface wave, retreating warm front, highly curved hodographs and lots of instability. Things may kick-off early and spread/develop rapidly to the east. All forms of severe weather are possible over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday… and some higher end severe is possible…especially in southern Illinois where I think the storms will have a chance to reach their full potential as they mature.
There are two main severe weather threat this week. The first round is tonight after midnight and the second round is Wednesday late morning into the afternoon. How tonight and early tomorrow unfold with greatly impact location and potential severity of the severe threat for Wednesday.
As for tonight, we get the sloppy leftovers from the High Risk event in OK and KS later today. Those leftovers should form up into a pretty beefy line (or lines) of strong to severe storms what will spread across the region after midnight. The overall dynamics and kinematics are much stronger out west for sure. However, the influx of low level moisture and increasing southerly winds will help hold up instability values well into the night…with MU CAPE even increasing some just in advance of the storms after midnight. The hodographs show plenty of turning in the low levels and the orientation of the shear vectors, along with the magnitude, certainly give some concern for both strong surface winds and possible mesovortex/QLCS tornado development. The timing is about as bad as it gets… after midnight and before sunrise. Yawn! There will be plenty of cranky people I’m afraid by tomorrow morning because of wind, lightning and possibly warning alarms waking them up. I’m hoping things don’t get too out of hand. The level 2 risk is a good risk level for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Level 3 extended a bit more to the east with time.
I really think tonight’s storms will put the kibosh on the storm threat in our region tomorrow. But, until we see how things play out tonight, let’s at least keep half an eye on the chance for isolated strong storms tomorrow afternoon in the recovering airmass.
Attention then turns to what may end up being our main event… Wednesday. This has some nasty looking parameters coming together. Surface wave, retreating warm front, highly curved hodographs and lots of instability. Things may kick-off early and spread/develop rapidly to the east. All forms of severe weather are possible over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois Wednesday… and some higher end severe is possible…especially in southern Illinois where I think the storms will have a chance to reach their full potential as they mature.