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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 7, 2020 13:53:24 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 7, 2020 14:57:48 GMT -6
3KM NAM is like rain in the early morning Tuesday than a quick turn to sunny with a fast hop to 90 degrees than BOOM! Supercells turning into a squall line before fading out by mid Evening Tuesday. Could be some good twisters initially followed by a wind and mild hail threat late Tuesday afternoon into about 9PM or about a 5PM to 9PM window. Gonna be a tight one, but could be very interesting. Than a much cooler and drier day for Wednesday, could be almost chilly by mid June Standards before moderation kicks in Thursday into the up coming weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 7, 2020 15:16:19 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is pushing 500 on the 3km NAM Tuesday morning.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 7, 2020 15:54:35 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is pushing 500 on the 3km NAM Tuesday morning. It looks like some CAPE might wrap around on the north side of Cristobal. If that CAPE and those helicities colocate we could see some quick spin ups with rare southwest to northeast storm motions Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Then we have a quasi dryline pushing through Missouri Tuesday evening. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before in our area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 7, 2020 16:10:08 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is pushing 500 on the 3km NAM Tuesday morning. It looks like some CAPE might wrap around on the north side of Cristobal. If that CAPE and those helicities colocate we could see some quick spin ups with rare southwest to northeast storm motions Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Then we have a quasi dryline pushing through Missouri Tuesday evening. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before in our area. Certainly not this time of year. I could imagine something like this happening in September or October but early June is just bizarre
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 7, 2020 17:17:03 GMT -6
0-1km SRH is pushing 500 on the 3km NAM Tuesday morning. It looks like some CAPE might wrap around on the north side of Cristobal. If that CAPE and those helicities colocate we could see some quick spin ups with rare southwest to northeast storm motions Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Then we have a quasi dryline pushing through Missouri Tuesday evening. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before in our area. Oops...I meant southeast to northwest. Anyway...18Z GFS is showing an elevated severe wx parameter space Tuesday afternoon with storm initiation pretty close to the metro area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 7, 2020 17:43:27 GMT -6
The LLJ is definitely strongly backed along the NE quadrant of the low which greatly enhances helicity. That's an interesting setup for sure...could be some decently strong tornadoes if enough CAPE is available and it probably wouldn't take a whole lot given the amount of shear, vorticity and low LCLs.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 7, 2020 17:48:39 GMT -6
Certainly slight risk from the metro and East. Enhanced maybe as we get closer. Tropical system leaving a prime airmass ahead the next deepening shortwave
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 7, 2020 20:20:04 GMT -6
And if no severe weather happens, at least it will be cooler. 😉
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 7, 2020 20:32:58 GMT -6
oz NAM's are pretty scant with the rain for eastern Mo. Some scattered showers for a few hours, not adding up to too much.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 8, 2020 9:49:56 GMT -6
I'm wondering if Cristobal is doing more to mitigate the severe risk tomorrow. It looks like the atmosphere may be capped in the afternoon which could inhibit convection or even suppress the initiation altogether.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 8, 2020 10:32:40 GMT -6
Models get a triple point going in or near the metro tomorrow afternoon as Cristobal exits and the pseudo dry line pushes in. Hrrrv4 has some beefy and likely inflated sig tors along the dry line. Convection initiation looks very questionable
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 8, 2020 10:49:29 GMT -6
Models get a triple point going in or near the metro tomorrow afternoon as Cristobal exits and the pseudo dry line pushes in. Hrrrv4 has some beefy and likely inflated sig tors along the dry line. Convection initiation looks very questionable 3k WRF looks similar as well...builds some big CAPE tomorrow afternoon/evening along and S of I-70 ahead of the convergence zone/dryline in the wake of the remnant circulation. Timmer just posted saying how bad this season has been for chasing and that he may be targeting S IL tomorrow.
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Post by REB on Jun 8, 2020 17:02:27 GMT -6
I sure hope we get rain at our house. The amount projected keeps dropping. We’re down to .25-.50” at the moment
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 8, 2020 17:31:43 GMT -6
I sure hope we get rain at our house. The amount projected keeps dropping. We’re down to .25-.50” at the moment Noticed the grass has slowed up and has a crunch in spots
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 8, 2020 19:39:13 GMT -6
Beautiful sunset!
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 8, 2020 20:14:38 GMT -6
Still thinking there may be some minimal risk for a brief tornado with Cristobal. I think the marginal risk is probably appropriate. So far there hasn't been an reports associated with the storm today.
Some subsidence in the wake of Cristobal may keep on lid on convection before the shortwave arrives later tomorrow night with height rises occurring til 03z. Would be a good thing, if it pans out that way, as the conditions would be ripe for severe storms. May have to keep an eye on this though.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 9, 2020 1:06:12 GMT -6
Definitely still some tropical storm force wind gusts left in Christobal. Goodness it's Gusty. Creaking the whole house.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 9, 2020 2:07:00 GMT -6
Ya we were sitting outside the last couple of hrs. Its getting breezy.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 9, 2020 5:42:59 GMT -6
I envisioned a more solid rain shield this irony on the radar for my area.......I guess it is going to be more of a “waves of rain” kind of day today
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 9, 2020 6:07:04 GMT -6
Yea this is pretty weak in terms of rain. Long term the GFS has sure dried things out.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 9, 2020 6:20:31 GMT -6
Ya not much here either. Enough that I won’t have to water today or tomorrow but not at all what I was expecting to wake up to.
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Post by birddog on Jun 9, 2020 6:30:22 GMT -6
My earlier forecast said 1-2", holding steady at .02". Looking like a tenth of an inch may be unachievable! Large cracks are appearing in my yard and pasture.
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Post by REB on Jun 9, 2020 7:41:44 GMT -6
At last check I had a grand total of .08" I was hoping not to have to water. At least we'll get cooler weather tomorrow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 9, 2020 8:02:33 GMT -6
Not real sure why everyone is so surprised at the lack of rain. The trend has been quite clear the last few days showing less and less rain around here, with some indications that we would get quite small amounts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2020 8:19:16 GMT -6
Could see dew points reach 80* this afternoon before the front pushes in
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Post by REB on Jun 9, 2020 8:28:19 GMT -6
Not real sure why everyone is so surprised at the lack of rain. The trend has been quite clear the last few days showing less and less rain around here, with some indications that we would get quite small amounts. not really surprised. Disappointed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2020 8:44:31 GMT -6
Not real sure why everyone is so surprised at the lack of rain. The trend has been quite clear the last few days showing less and less rain around here, with some indications that we would get quite small amounts. You would expect a bit more than spotty showers and drizzle with the low center passing directly overhead...but models did quite well showing the heavy rain axis left of the track. My concern was always the amount of water falling across the upstream MO and MS watersheds with rivers already running high.
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Post by bear1 on Jun 9, 2020 8:47:21 GMT -6
1.03" so far..IMBY
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 9, 2020 8:51:14 GMT -6
Could see dew points reach 80* this afternoon before the front pushes in When we clear out... it's going to get soupy
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