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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 13:07:14 GMT -6
This morning's microwave data showed a double eyewall structure with Florence which may explain why it hasn't intensified. But the windfield continues to expand and pressure is slowly falling so it's still an intense and dangerous storm. Remember that Ike was only a CAT2 at landfall and did tremendous damage from surge due to its size. I was just about to post on this. Florence has struggled to really go off, and I didn't realize what was happening so thanks for posting that. I have some questions about the surge...what will the difference be between a normal hurricane (Such as IKE, Katrina, etc.) that propagates inland at a normal speed and one that slams on the brakes like Florence will likely do? Will that lessen the storm surge? I picture the surge maybe not reaching its full potential given that it won't have that full forward rush. Think of pushing water with a squeegee across a concrete floor, only you're stopping the squeegee. Either way, there will likely be mind blowing rainfall totals which will end up being the main story here. |
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Post by mchafin on Sept 12, 2018 14:01:37 GMT -6
Eye is looking like it's winking now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 14:21:46 GMT -6
She is struggling today for sure...wonder what is causing the constant disruption of the eye?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2018 14:45:43 GMT -6
This morning's microwave data showed a double eyewall structure with Florence which may explain why it hasn't intensified. But the windfield continues to expand and pressure is slowly falling so it's still an intense and dangerous storm. Remember that Ike was only a CAT2 at landfall and did tremendous damage from surge due to its size. I was just about to post on this. Florence has struggled to really go off, and I didn't realize what was happening so thanks for posting that. I have some questions about the surge...what will the difference be between a normal hurricane (Such as IKE, Katrina, etc.) that propagates inland at a normal speed and one that slams on the brakes like Florence will likely do? Will that lessen the storm surge? I picture the surge maybe not reaching its full potential given that it won't have that full forward rush. Think of pushing water with a squeegee across a concrete floor, only you're stopping the squeegee. Either way, there will likely be mind blowing rainfall totals which will end up being the main story here. I'm thinking along those same lines...a hurricane with a greater forward speed would have a higher surge. The stalling will create havoc with rainfall totals...not surge. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2018 14:46:52 GMT -6
She is struggling today for sure...wonder what is causing the constant disruption of the eye? Could very well be interference between the inner and outer eyewalls... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 12, 2018 14:51:59 GMT -6
Looks like the zone of landfall will be between North Myrtle Beach, SC and Southport, NC or the North/South Carolina Border before it sinks into the mid-state of South Carolina Between Columbia and Orangeburg. Charleston might just dodge a bullet here but still gonna get ugly with surge and heavy rains.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Sept 12, 2018 16:02:09 GMT -6
NOAA flying today  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2018 17:16:26 GMT -6
I think the size, intensity, and longevity of the wind field has more to do with storm surge than speed of movement.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 12, 2018 17:24:10 GMT -6
I think the size, intensity, and longevity of the wind field has more to do with storm surge than speed of movement. . Exactly. Hurricanes pile up water in front of them and that is what the surge is |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 18:07:56 GMT -6
Man Florence is looking very disorganized at this hour. The coast may get a break at least in terms of wind that was initially expected.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 12, 2018 19:07:34 GMT -6
Man Florence is looking very disorganized at this hour. The coast may get a break at least in terms of wind that was initially expected. We can hope but latest data still shows her tropical force and hurricane force wind fields are growing. Let’s hope she doesn’t go under any rapid intensification between now and landfall |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2018 19:18:27 GMT -6
Recon would have this aa a cat 2. Wekening pretty rapidly. Another intensity forecast down the crapper.
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Post by packrat on Sept 12, 2018 19:40:09 GMT -6
It may weaken in terms of wind force but it will slow to a crawl and dump buckets of rain. It’s very easy to get caught up in the narrative of “it’s only a Cat 3”. This will be a very destructive storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2018 19:52:11 GMT -6
Looks like another ERC may be in progress. Good timing if so as it would likely prevent much intensification from occurring on approach...Florence is running out of room to become the monster it was forecast to.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2018 19:54:50 GMT -6
It may weaken in terms of wind force but it will slow to a crawl and dump buckets of rain. It’s very easy to get caught up in the narrative of “it’s only a Cat 3”. This will be a very destructive storm. Agreed, the surge and flooding has always been the biggest threat from this storm. Like I said before, Ike was a CAT2 at landfall and it did catestrophic damage along the coastline due to it's size. I don't think Florence is as big, but it's still a large and powerful hurricane. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 19:55:51 GMT -6
Yea it has struggled to ever really look like a monster. It almost did Monday but it was short lived. Now we have a pinhole eye as opposed to the big one we saw yesterday. Could still intensify. Sometimes you see that after the eye shrinks. Let's hope people don't let their guard down due to the lower winds. The water is still coming.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2018 21:03:48 GMT -6
Down to a cat 2..a generous 110
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 12, 2018 21:20:13 GMT -6
Still an open eyewall but trying to close off and the outflow looks well developed. Should steadily deepen now... With that outflow- the wind field may get very large It did |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 12, 2018 21:33:13 GMT -6
Florence's eye on IR satellite just about gone.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 12, 2018 21:37:31 GMT -6
Oh, and something went haywire on the HWRF with Typhoon Mangkhut. I'm no expert, but surface pressure of 775mb looks a bit unrealistic...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 12, 2018 21:48:54 GMT -6
Florence's eye on IR satellite just about gone. Thats a big convective blow up on the SW side. GOES 16 says it has alot of lighting in it to |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 12, 2018 22:08:39 GMT -6
Well... the weakening trend may have ended. The satellite representation is quickly improving...but we've seen that before. The question is can it maintain this. The modest amount of shear that had been cutting across the top of the storm earlier is clearly abating with the rapid expansion of very cold cloud tops to the west and southwest...and as the CDO moves over the gulf stream... I sure would not rule out a pop back to CAT 3. CAT 4 seems unlikely...but you never know. That eye is suddenly looking QUITE healthy and well defined again.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 12, 2018 22:09:12 GMT -6
Florence's eye on IR satellite just about gone. Thats a big convective blow up on the SW side. GOES 16 says it has alot of lighting in it to Maybe starting a re-strengthening phase? Has the Gulf Stream coming up. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 13, 2018 6:02:33 GMT -6
The wind speed may be less but it appears the actual wind field is expanding. Check out this link from a tower that is about 30 miles east of Cape Fear. That looks pretty strong already given they are not even in the rain shield yet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 13, 2018 6:25:30 GMT -6
There is also an underwater cam at that location. At the moment there is a school of small fish trying to figure out what the hell is going on...
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 13, 2018 7:02:49 GMT -6
Recon finding basically a cat 1. Wow. Epic fail. Lol.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 13, 2018 7:51:19 GMT -6
I would not count this storm out. Looks like outflow maybe reestablishing on the south and east sides. If it does and it slows down then further strengthening could be fairly rapid.
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Post by jeepers on Sept 13, 2018 8:47:34 GMT -6
Just sitting here wondering if my sister's home is going to be destroyed by the time that this is over.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 13, 2018 8:58:02 GMT -6
Just sitting here wondering if my sister's home is going to be destroyed by the time that this is over. Where is that exactly? |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 13, 2018 9:22:46 GMT -6
Just sitting here wondering if my sister's home is going to be destroyed by the time that this is over. Where is that exactly? yo STG. I sent you a personal message earlier |
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