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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 11, 2018 15:56:04 GMT -6
NHC has her moving rather well from Saturday to Sunday
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 11, 2018 16:46:36 GMT -6
18Z GFS shows a direct landfall on Charleston, SC. the storm then comes back off shore of Virginia and then cycles around to hit the Carolinas again as the next ridge builds in preventing it from heading out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 11, 2018 17:05:22 GMT -6
The RPM takes the center right into Charleston as well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 11, 2018 17:08:09 GMT -6
Should I tell my friends to stay put in Charleston? I wouldn't risk it, personally. There's a chance the ridge could be stronger than modeled and the storm could shift further S. Even a short-lived wobble or well timed ERC could make a difference in the eventual track. If I were in Charleston I would be planning on heading towards Jacksonville. Bet on the Euro... or something similar to the Euro. It handles the upper ridges better on the western edge. It was the only model to drive Irma into Cuba as I recall...and it was discounted. If I were in Charleston... I would be very worried right now. Nobody in either NC or SC can let their guard down...and both areas should plan for a direct strike. The repercussions of not getting ready are too grave at this stage in game. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 11, 2018 18:04:59 GMT -6
Looking at the 8 PM ADT path it has the depression into western North Carolina. And thoughts on how much further west it will continue to track? Like to the Mississippi Valley?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 18:19:36 GMT -6
I wouldn't risk it, personally. There's a chance the ridge could be stronger than modeled and the storm could shift further S. Even a short-lived wobble or well timed ERC could make a difference in the eventual track. If I were in Charleston I would be planning on heading towards Jacksonville. Bet on the Euro... or something similar to the Euro. It handles the upper ridges better on the western edge. It was the only model to drive Irma into Cuba as I recall...and it was discounted. If I were in Charleston... I would be very worried right now. Nobody in either NC or SC can let their guard down...and both areas should plan for a direct strike. The repercussions of not getting ready are too grave at this stage in game. I’ve told them to get the hell out of dodge. When I spoke to them at 5:30 central, they were finishing up the shudders and heading South. |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Sept 11, 2018 18:34:09 GMT -6
Hi Everyone, Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river. They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit. I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage. What is your Facebook page? |
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 11, 2018 19:14:32 GMT -6
Hi Everyone, Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river. They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit. I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage. What is your Facebook page? That information would help wouldn’t it |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 20:39:55 GMT -6
Nam does the stall and sit over the coast routine too. Man, we think we get frustrated with multiple model solutions and flip flops during winter storms, imagine trying to rely on it with your life and property on the line. Puts things in perspective.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 20:56:07 GMT -6
Florence looks a bit ragged on IR and recon SFMR seems to be measuring only 105kts. Guess we'll see what NHC advisory says but I suspect she's down to Cat 3.
Edit: No change from NHC, but that seems a little generous.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 11, 2018 21:26:52 GMT -6
It started look really good there for an hour or two again...the turned a bit fuzzy again. The dynamics in play with these things is stunning.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 11, 2018 21:30:40 GMT -6
Seems to me that these storms really get cranking when they hit the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.... with little sheer and very warm waters this thing might go crazy tomorrow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 11, 2018 21:58:48 GMT -6
There are going to be some unbelievable rain totals with this thing.
00z gfs maintains the stall trend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 11, 2018 22:09:06 GMT -6
GFS and Euro have the same stall off the NC coast and drift south down the coast for ~48 hours before making landfall. That is going to cause alot of storm surge damage if correct
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 22:16:48 GMT -6
I'm thankful my friends in Charleston decided to get out of there. As I told them, even it doesn't hit their area, the peace of mind associated with having their family out of harms' way is immeasurable. Their kids are out of school indefinitely, so the harm with leaving is next to nil. The harm in staying could be life-threatening. Their house has Cat-5 shudders in the front, but not in the back. So they had to deploy the shudders they had in the back in the hopes that their house doesn't take the brunt of hurricane force winds on the back (which faces the coast). They are about 5 miles inland, so if they take a direct hit, it won't be pretty.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 11, 2018 22:22:25 GMT -6
I'm afraid that our place of 30 years at Myrtle Beach is in big trouble.... it is right on the beach
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2018 2:16:19 GMT -6
These model solutions for Flo are just crazy. The Euro and many of it's EPS bring her to a screeching halt then moves it sw to GA. A few runs have shown this, and a few different models. If I were on duty at the NHC and forecasting the track of this thing, I'd call in sick.
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Post by weatherman222 on Sept 12, 2018 2:16:32 GMT -6
I'm heading for Bowling Green, VA with our Ambulance district. I'm interested to see how this storm compares to Irma. I feel like we are dealing with two completely different threats as this appears to cause some catastrophic flooding.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 12, 2018 3:07:58 GMT -6
NHC has shifted south, with further south adjustments possible they say. The basically keep it off shore until after midnight FRIDAY night now. Because of upwelling and land interaction, also expected shear, probably be hard to be much more than a cat 2 at landfall, if things work out this way. Wouldn't surprise me if it's a cat 1. It'll be a big rainer though, no doubt.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 12, 2018 5:26:53 GMT -6
Um...WTF? UKMET...93".  |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 12, 2018 5:30:41 GMT -6
These model solutions for Flo are just crazy. The Euro and many of it's EPS bring her to a screeching halt then moves it sw to GA. A few runs have shown this, and a few different models. If I were on duty at the NHC and forecasting the track of this thing, I'd call in sick. It's a fascinating job, but yeah it's cases like this I'm glad I don't do weather professionally. There's a high risk of forecasts being WAY off on landfall point (points?) and rain totals. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 12, 2018 5:31:12 GMT -6
A silver lining in all this is as the model runs come out more and more of the catastrophic rainfall is being pushed off the coast. Yesterday it had widespread foot plus rainfall well up into the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia. Let us hope this trend continues
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 12, 2018 5:39:46 GMT -6
What was the name of the hurricane that stalled off Central America and inundated places down there a few years ago? What kind of rainfall totals did they get that out of that?
You got to figure some of those bands put out 6 in per hour. If you get caught under one of them for more than six hours or so it just going to be ridiculous
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 12, 2018 5:44:46 GMT -6
What was the name of the hurricane that stalled off Central America and inundated places down there a few years ago? What kind of rainfall totals did they get that out of that? You got to figure some of those bands put out 6 in per hour. If you get caught under one of them for more than six hours or so it just going to be ridiculous I believe that hurricane was Mitch. Highest official report was 36 in, but they had unofficial reports all the way up to 75 in |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 12, 2018 6:04:22 GMT -6
With a combination of slowing and turning at the coast there are some spots that could exceed 30 in. That is if it is that close when it makes the turn
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 6:16:14 GMT -6
Latest advisory actually has it dropping from 945 to 943 mb. Not very significant on its own, but shows that even though it looked a bit weaker on satellite, it didn't lose any punch. One thing to note is that over the last 24 hrs it has maintained a much more concentric eye. I still wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in intensity before it approaches land. Then, as 99 said, land interaction is likely to do some damage to it. How much that mitigates the effect of it still being over water remains to be seen. This is a nightmare for forecasters for sure. The massive scope of the cone beyond 36 hours is ridiculous.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 12, 2018 6:23:51 GMT -6
Depending on how close the eye gets to the coast when it is at peak strength, there is another issue to consider. We know what it looks like when an area experiences 100-130 mph winds for an hour or two (passage of eyewall). But what happens if those same areas are battered for 12-24 hours with these kinds of winds? A lot of structures in that part of the country can withstand a normal landfalling situation, but who knows how things hold up as the hours pass under that kind of wind pressure. The cumulative effect is somewhat unknown. That's why they better be praying it stays a bit off shore during this time.
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Post by yypc on Sept 12, 2018 7:24:22 GMT -6
Depending on how close the eye gets to the coast when it is at peak strength, there is another issue to consider. We know what it looks like when an area experiences 100-130 mph winds for an hour or two (passage of eyewall). But what happens if those same areas are battered for 12-24 hours with these kinds of winds? A lot of structures in that part of the country can withstand a normal landfalling situation, but who knows how things hold up as the hours pass under that kind of wind pressure. The cumulative effect is somewhat unknown. That's why they better be praying it stays a bit off shore during this time. It could be like the Jerrell, TX tornado situation where the tornado sat and spun over the same area for 15+ minutes, resulting in the worst tornado damage ever seen. |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 12, 2018 8:49:17 GMT -6
What will make that high pressure area move? It’s preventing Florence from moving north but also blocking weather from moving east! Just asking if it’s looking like days before it’s back to normal? Someone mentioned rain on Tuesday or Weds next week which makes one think the pattern will be unblocked by then?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 12, 2018 12:57:05 GMT -6
This morning's microwave data showed a double eyewall structure with Florence which may explain why it hasn't intensified. But the windfield continues to expand and pressure is slowly falling so it's still an intense and dangerous storm. Remember that Ike was only a CAT2 at landfall and did tremendous damage from surge due to its size.
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