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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2024 15:04:41 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 29, 2024 15:37:10 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 29, 2024 15:43:47 GMT -6
I would love for that to go about 30-40 miles south do everyone gets some snow
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Post by oakvilleerv on Nov 29, 2024 16:00:40 GMT -6
Looking forward to see how things evolve  A question came to mind while watching the KC game…. Any idea what the temperature change would be from in the stands at Arrow head to the outdoor temperature … Thanks 😊 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2024 16:19:11 GMT -6
Thankfully I’m at the in laws in Troy IL until Sunday morning so I’ll be able to get in on this one.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 29, 2024 16:21:04 GMT -6
Chris what caused them to issue the WWA? We are now within 24 hours of the first snow event of the season and there are likely to be some minor impacts to travel. Nothing really changed. Similar amounts snarled Chicago a week ago. Lots of delayed flights and traffic jams. Luckily we were on the train |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2024 16:30:23 GMT -6
"The snow may be heavy at times"
Music to my ears...
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Post by amstilost on Nov 29, 2024 16:31:17 GMT -6
Wow, great to see a two-page jump in 24 hours on the weather blog, except for the fact that Snowman is cussing, I know I'm on the wrong side of the system again. I hopped on to pivotal weather and looked at the total qpf of the storm on the 12z and 18z run and was quite disheartened to see the jump north with the heaviest qpf and really slighted me. Seems most of the other models almost came right down the middle between St Louis and my location 7 miles west of DeSoto. Pretty sure I'll see snow flying so that's a positive. I'm still full from dinner yesterday. Hope everyone had a great day. Stay safe if anyone has to drive in it tomorrow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2024 17:07:46 GMT -6
Models have definitely trended a bit warmer with the 18z 3k NAM trying to get the mixing line into the S Metro until the stronger forcing comes in mid-day. But it looks like a 2-3hr period of good snow rates will develop from about 10am-1pm and models are suggesting >0.25" is possible within the mesoscale band supporting some 3"+ totals. The consensus still puts that along/N of the MO river/I-70 which is supported by a vort max track from ~50mi N of SGF to CGI.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 29, 2024 17:23:25 GMT -6
For Some reason I still see Lucy pulling the football away.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 29, 2024 17:45:03 GMT -6
It’s not a big enough storm for Lucy to show up …… I’m afraid the rain snow mix will be more north and really cut into accumulating snow
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 29, 2024 17:48:39 GMT -6
I'm in Nashville, you guys that are getting snow, enjoy. I'll be driving home Sunday, in the midst of all the others returning home home thier holiday.
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Post by tedrick65 on Nov 29, 2024 18:28:07 GMT -6
It’s not a big enough storm for Lucy to show up …… I’m afraid the rain snow mix will be more north and really cut into accumulating snow I have to get my daughter from High Ridge to the airport for a 2:30 ish flight tomorrow. My love for driving in the snow went away about 15 years ago. I have to say a "on grassy surfaces" storm would work quite well for me tomorrow. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 29, 2024 19:14:06 GMT -6
18z ECMWF QPF placement looks really close to current forecasts. I'd probably cut it's snow totals by a third but still in really good shape for maybe a couple inches in a narrow corridor along or north of I70 and perhaps higher amounts to the northwest.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2024 19:28:08 GMT -6
18z ECMWF QPF placement looks really close to current forecasts. I'd probably cut it's snow totals by a third but still in really good shape for maybe a couple inches in a narrow corridor along or north of I70 and perhaps higher amounts to the northwest. EC has been about 20 miles further S than other guidance but that's not well supported by the short range guidance which favors the NAM. Be interesting to see where that mesoband sets up. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 29, 2024 19:44:11 GMT -6
I'm thinking moberly to jerseyville will be the winners, im not expecting more than 1 to 2 in the st.peters area with inch or less south of the river.
But we will see.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2024 20:20:11 GMT -6
00z NAM came in a tick further south and shows the max right down the MO river
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 29, 2024 20:35:42 GMT -6
00z NAM came in a tick further south and shows the max right down the MO river It definitely did … this is the first run that we down this way are in the heavier band ….. this is going to be a feast or famine event ….. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 29, 2024 20:45:51 GMT -6
00z NAM came in a tick further south and shows the max right down the MO river 00z HRRR agrees as well for the most part. In fact, the HRRR has been consistent with this system besides of course our fearless leader Chris! Chris was ahead of the NWS on the further south placement of the "max snowfall zone." Lets hope the further south trends are correct indeed. Everyone enjoy the first snow storm of the season! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2024 20:47:01 GMT -6
Latest NBM Showing 2-4” in a pretty big swath  |
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Post by thechaser on Nov 29, 2024 20:58:43 GMT -6
Just my two cents, but I am worried about temps getting to around freezing if not above freezing. i.imgur.com/xLwckSZ.png |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2024 21:02:40 GMT -6
Just my two cents, but I am worried about temps getting to around freezing if not above freezing. i.imgur.com/xLwckSZ.pngWherever there is decent snow falling, I would not expect temperatures to warm above freezing. There will most definitely be a sharp gradient of temperatures and snowfall on the southern edge... and they should be pretty much on top of each other. The snowfall rates should hold temps down except for the extreme southern most portion of the snow shield. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2024 22:08:56 GMT -6
Operational GFS has drifted south over the past few runs by a little.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2024 22:44:10 GMT -6
What I've digested of the evening data supports what I have on the table. Steady as she goes.
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Post by MakeitRain on Nov 29, 2024 23:29:27 GMT -6
Looks like a good clipper.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 29, 2024 23:42:57 GMT -6
Latest NBM Showing 2-4” in a pretty big swath Just not a big enough swath.😢 I just seen my forecast has changed, dropped percentage chances down and the snow totals down to less than a half inch and added the dreaded mixed with rain wording then continues with just rain into tomorrow night.😭😭 I do believe in good Winters, I do believe in good Winters, I do, I do, I do believe in good winters. Can't hurt. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Nov 30, 2024 0:17:54 GMT -6
Latest NBM Showing 2-4” in a pretty big swath Just not a big enough swath.😢 I just seen my forecast has changed, dropped percentage chances down and the snow totals down to less than a half inch and added the dreaded mixed with rain wording then continues with just rain into tomorrow night.😭😭 I do believe in good Winters, I do believe in good Winters, I do, I do, I do believe in good winters. Can't hurt. We are sitting this one out I'm afraid. I'm fortunate in that I'm planning to go north to the hockey game tomorrow night, so I'll see it at least. Have faith. A lot of Winter still to come! |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 30, 2024 3:34:03 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 30, 2024 4:44:16 GMT -6
Radar echo this morning is right where the short range guidance had it...everything looks on track for our clipper
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Post by sgdragons on Nov 30, 2024 5:21:52 GMT -6
Hopefully get enough to set the mood for our son’s 7th birthday today. Had to put our pup of 17 years down yesterday. It was a rough day.
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A question came to mind while watching the KC game…. Any idea what the temperature change would be from in the stands at Arrow head to the outdoor temperature … Thanks 😊 
