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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 27, 2024 13:54:38 GMT -6
I personally love the Clipper train… The snow is usually fluffy and easy to move and it’s always followed by cold air, which means the snow sticks around for a few days…… I’d love for this pattern to take hold The flip side to this is the clipper train almost always ends up further north across Wisconsin and if you end up on the south side of a clipper you are going into the 60s I always love when a clipper hits NW Missouri and then slides SE and just misses us to the SW lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2024 16:18:41 GMT -6
The flip side to this is the clipper train almost always ends up further north across Wisconsin and if you end up on the south side of a clipper you are going into the 60s I always love when a clipper hits NW Missouri and then slides SE and just misses us to the SW lol Those definitely sting a little worse, lol |
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Post by REB on Nov 27, 2024 17:45:55 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving friends.
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Post by blueblood on Nov 27, 2024 19:19:52 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving friends. Same to you and all!!! I hate to say it but I'm pumped about Saturday! Putting up christmas decorations inside with a fire and snow falling.....doesn't get any better than that!! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 27, 2024 19:31:15 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
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Post by amstilost on Nov 27, 2024 20:27:03 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone,
Enjoy the time with family and friends.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2024 20:40:31 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving MTW crew!
The 00z NAM is regretably dry... very dry.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 27, 2024 20:44:59 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving MTW crew! The 00z NAM is regretably dry... very dry. More telling for me is the dual surface reflection with one north of the metro. This will be a Central Illinois clipper by Saturday. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Nov 27, 2024 20:52:51 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 27, 2024 21:49:45 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving MTW crew! The 00z NAM is regretably dry... very dry. More telling for me is the dual surface reflection with one north of the metro. This will be a Central Illinois clipper by Saturday. Isn’t this when we say “Don’t worry - it’s just the NAM at (insert number) hour”? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 27, 2024 21:51:27 GMT -6
Lol. Icon has gone well north too. Bye bye clipper.
GFS. North as well. Yay.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 27, 2024 22:12:31 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Nov 27, 2024 22:13:55 GMT -6
Hopefully the rest of winter wont be the same
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 27, 2024 22:47:46 GMT -6
00z gfs sure is nice at D9/10.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2024 0:04:26 GMT -6
Saturday still looks fine to me  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 28, 2024 7:46:08 GMT -6
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!
Trends are still pretty solid with 06z data remarkably consistent with track and timing of what is a small and fast moving clipper system. What variability we have seen has remained within a pretty narrow is corridor...with the means favoring a narrow band of max snow of 1-2 inches near I-70.
I'm going to spend the day eating and watching football and NOT stewing over model trends. That is what tomorrow will be good for I think!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2024 8:00:50 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving, MTW friends!
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Post by REB on Nov 28, 2024 9:21:40 GMT -6
HappyBirthday House springs Deerkiller. I don’t think you’re eating turkey where you are.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2024 9:29:06 GMT -6
Looks like we had a little spat of snow here early this morning with a few patches of dusted leaves...cold Thanksgiving morning in the 20s with a NW wind.
06z models continue to support a band of 1-2" snowfall from roughly COU to STL on Saturday..."steady as she goes" as our fearless leader would say.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2024 10:30:38 GMT -6
Hello Continent spanning West Coast Ridge from Mexico to West Canada and Alaska! It's been awhile, like almost a bloody decade. NAO isn't great, but that might be a good thing for us as it keeps us on the edge of these deep troughs were the clippers are and could help some overrunning events later on. Still looks like a let up around the Holidays into January, then February and March at this point look quite good especially if a SSW shows up in late January.
Well the 12Z GFS is something a kin to that polar invasion from 2014 with strong -NAO/-AO/-EPO pattern which unloads the polar airmass into eastern North America.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 28, 2024 11:17:30 GMT -6
That’s kind of what I was saying the other day…the battle lines are being drawn so to speak that I believe will be the overwhelming theme of the winter. You’re correct it’s been quite some time since we’ve seen that type of cold air entrenchment/alignment.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2024 11:46:46 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is juiced out towards Columbia. Could see some 5 inch lollipops west of the metro.
Interested to see if the northward jog has stabilized. An early indication of how to handle the next several behind this one.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2024 12:02:52 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is juiced out towards Columbia. Could see some 5 inch lollipops west of the metro. Interested to see if the northward jog has stabilized. An early indication of how to handle the next several behind this one. I think it's going to be tough to get 3"+ anywhere with the speed of the system and ratios will probably top out around 12:1 but W of the river is preferred with it slowly shearing out as it moves through. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 28, 2024 12:57:34 GMT -6
I e read that the pattern with a Hudson bay vortex and aleutian island high is a pattern than can develop in winter and remain pretty stable all season. That could damage some warm winter forecasts. Hopefully.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2024 14:58:35 GMT -6
Both the 12z UK and GEM have a narrow stripe of >0.20" QPF through the Metro on Saturday...love to see it. The 12z EC is a little SW and drier but still in the game.
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Post by fojginmo on Nov 28, 2024 16:27:42 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 28, 2024 20:38:55 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving gang! ❤️❄️❤️
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 29, 2024 3:46:26 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2024 5:37:43 GMT -6
06z nam and hires nam are crazy juiced right into the metro.
We are talking 3-6 inches in a narrow band with heaviest amounts west into Central Missouri.
This is not a forecast, just an observation of the nam doing nam things and it being fun to dream.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 29, 2024 6:07:58 GMT -6
And the rap has the heaviest snow a little further south and east going right through the metro …..this will be interesting to watch
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