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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2024 9:35:17 GMT -6
Thinking of you woogie! The stuff about man making and manipulating hurricanes has kind of always been a thing I guess. But it's really gotten ridiculous since Helene and no w Milton. It's very sad and scary. I agree, that is just plain ignorance. Don’t people think if we had that power we’d fix the whole drought problem which has tremendous economic and environmental impacts when/where it happens? Among many other reasons. |
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Post by ams3389 on Oct 6, 2024 9:40:55 GMT -6
Prayers for Woogie. My socials have never been more flooded with weather manipulation since Helene. Sure it’s possible, but lots of science involved too. My question in regard to this next hurricane… has there ever been a hurricane to develop in said region and come at Florida almost due east? Thinking of you woogie! The stuff about man making and manipulating hurricanes has kind of always been a thing I guess. But it's really gotten ridiculous since Helene and no w Milton. It's very sad and scary. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2024 9:54:22 GMT -6
Tampa better hope the GFS is out to lunch...most other guidance is further south and weaker which makes sense considering the depth of the trof across the E US as it approaches the coast. Flooding is going to be a major concern with the lead disturbance dropping 3-6"+ ahead of the main system which could bring totals into the 10-20"+ range locally.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2024 9:56:19 GMT -6
Thinking about you, Woogie...hang in there!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2024 10:58:29 GMT -6
Anyone else thinking about the character from Office Space when they hear the name of this week's hurricane?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2024 11:39:19 GMT -6
Hurricanes models show Milton becoming a small but very strong storm near the Yucutan Peninsula.
They also show it rapidly weakening as it nears the west coast of Florida as shear and dry air takes it toll.
That would be the latest in a long line of Tampa dodging a bullet.
Although surge would still be bad even in a weakening system.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 6, 2024 12:50:01 GMT -6
Healing thoughts going out to you, Woogie.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 6, 2024 14:01:16 GMT -6
Prayers for you Woogie!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2024 14:07:37 GMT -6
Hurricanes models show Milton becoming a small but very strong storm near the Yucutan Peninsula. They also show it rapidly weakening as it nears the west coast of Florida as shear and dry air takes it toll. That would be the latest in a long line of Tampa dodging a bullet. Although surge would still be bad even in a weakening system. They need to be praying that the shear weakens this storm substantially on approach...most hurricane models have it around 930-950mb a few hundred miles OTS before it weakens rapidly. One of the models(HAFS) has a ~958mb hurricane hitting about 50miles N of Tampa which would be terrible. Luckily most models have it as a CAT1 or so at landfall. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2024 14:17:55 GMT -6
One concerning trend with the hurricane models is the explosive deepening as the storm crosses the loop current...some have it nearing 900mb before the shear starts to put the brakes on. An intense hurricane will take time to wind down over very warm waters so hopefully those models are overcooking the intensity which they often do.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 6, 2024 14:54:05 GMT -6
Praying for you, Woogie.
Tracking right through the center of Florida leaves open the possibility to impact so many areas--Tampa, Cape Coral, Orlando/Kissimmee, and then over to the Space Coast.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 6, 2024 21:42:11 GMT -6
 My gut was that Oct looks was looking zonal or ridgy toasty (warm or even toasty). Yes we have had some cold fronts (including the one that went thru today). Overall, we are 3.9" above avg at Lambert. Outline areas and other airports would be slightly less above avg especially since they always run colder for lows by a noteworthy margin (highs typically cooler too). Nonetheless, it was in the upper 80s yesterday almost near 90*...toasty for Oct! After this cool down it's looking warmer than avg by a good deal from mid week on thru mid Oct. The drying ground will result in warmer high temperatures and cooler night lows. Yes it looks maybe more troughy later in the month, but I believe Oct will end up warmer and of course drier than avg! I'm happy with trusting my gut! Based on what's been going on, heavy rains to drought to heavy rains to drought I'll gladly take 2 big 12"+ snowstorms this winter with nothing in between! Instead of having many nuisance 1"ers or a sleet, freezing rain mess, or just plain muddy rain. We can only wish! Chris's article he shared points to some good news for us this winter. Though, we may be too far west and the systems blow up to our ESE lol! I'm still sticking with my idea that a wet Sept bodes well for a good winter in our area in terms of snow. At the same time, we are indeed entering a drought like others on here have stated! Not promising! As always it's a now casting situation and I'm looking forward to getting back on the STL Metro Winter roller coaster even if I end up getting sick from it and disappointed! 😂😊 |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 6, 2024 22:01:16 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2024 23:08:28 GMT -6
Some remarkable intensification about to take place.
00z hurricane models have a buzzsaw CAT 5 approaching sub 900mb.
Rapid weakening on landfall approach will help a ton.
Will be quite the sight from space.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 7, 2024 6:17:46 GMT -6
Prayers for you Woogie for healing and comfort.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 7, 2024 6:32:44 GMT -6
Wow the lightning density sure increased around the eye overnight. I haven't looked at what it got down to but it looks like it's weakened. It tooka pretty big jog to the Southeast. I guess that's likely ERC wobble. You can see the dry air getting entrained as it weakend to the northwest of the eye. Scary stuff. Just hope it weakens/is in the weakening process coming to shore. Prayers for Florida, the South East from Helene, and our country in general.
Edit:NHC latest at 7amCDT is getting stronger. Hopefully the latest update shows some weakening.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2024 6:42:10 GMT -6
The weakening should help some, but it will also grow in size and by that time will have been a Cat 4, maybe Cat 5 for an extended period of time and already have been pushing gulf water momentum toward FL for several days. The hurricane models are a bad bad deal for Tampa Bay.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 7, 2024 7:01:57 GMT -6
Models are initializing way weaker than Milton already has become.
This thing might have a shot of being the strongest GOM storm ever on record (it won’t impact land at that strength)
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Post by ElburnDave on Oct 7, 2024 7:09:46 GMT -6
Wow! Just upgraded to Cat 4 with 150mph sustained.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Oct 7, 2024 7:15:28 GMT -6
Milton has the dreaded pinhole eye which usually means extreme short term intensification.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 7:32:41 GMT -6
He'll be a Category 5 today. 72-78 hours until landfall south of Tampa Bay, Florida where it should arrive as a Category 4 possibly a 5 if shear doesn't get to it. It's a small storm, but very mighty!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 7, 2024 7:38:24 GMT -6
Also there was a brief burst of Auroras last night from the Brief G3 magnetic storm, but they were largely photogenic (needing a special camera) and near the northern horizon. Spaceweather.com has some photos taken near and north of St. Louis.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 8:30:42 GMT -6
The maximum possible intensity of Milton based on the environment it’s in is just above 900mb with 195mph winds.
It may get close to that.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 8:32:54 GMT -6
Milton CDO looking more symmetric on IR satellite and recon continues to find falling pressures. The amount of lighting currently in the eyewall is insane. Would not be surprised to see a Cat 5 storm today. Also that persistent blob on the eastern flank looks pretty intense too. Remember Matthew 2016 had a similar feature.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 9:16:59 GMT -6
Latest recon dropsonde has another dramatic drop in pressure down to at least 934mb. Recon also reporting tiny 8nm eye.
Edit: I see NHC puts pressure at 933mb.
Edit: Also looks like recon fixes are showing almost entirely east motion now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2024 9:23:59 GMT -6
NHC adjusted the center of the cone to just north of Tampa Bay. I'm afraid they are in serious trouble.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2024 9:27:28 GMT -6
NHC adjusted the center of the cone to just north of Tampa Bay. I'm afraid they are in serious trouble. My daughter has a gym meet in Tampa in January. The team usually stays on St. Pete beach and the venue is in Bradenton right on the Manatee River. We usually make a mini vacation out these trips for a few days too. So I'm watching this pretty closely to see if any of these plans are going to change. There's really no good scenario with all the development up and down on this part of the coast, but landfall just north of Tampa is definitely worst case. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2024 9:36:25 GMT -6
Landfall just north of Tampa would be the worst case scenario for storm surge as it would allow an extend stretch of SW winds to funnel water into Tampa Bay.
I really hope the residents take the evacuation orders seriously.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2024 9:39:51 GMT -6
Exactly, and we haven't seen one take this route in recent history, and perhaps not since the 1848 storm.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Oct 7, 2024 9:43:55 GMT -6
Cloud seeding is a real thing, all you have to do is Google it, it's been around for decades. I'm not saying it was used in Helene, just saying it is a real thing. Thinking of you woogie! The stuff about man making and manipulating hurricanes has kind of always been a thing I guess. But it's really gotten ridiculous since Helene and no w Milton. It's very sad and scary. I agree, that is just plain ignorance. Don’t people think if we had that power we’d fix the whole drought problem which has tremendous economic and environmental impacts when/where it happens? Among many other reasons. |
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