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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 24, 2024 14:43:34 GMT -6
It looks like the path is being forecast to go further east. The center of the cone is almost to Cincinnati. I know we were never supposed to get the low going straight overhead. But is the field of precipitation going to move further east, as well?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 24, 2024 15:08:04 GMT -6
It looks like the path is being forecast to go further east. The center of the cone is almost to Cincinnati. I know we were never supposed to get the low going straight overhead. But is the field of precipitation going to move further east, as well? The interaction with the upper low is very complex and might still not be modeled well. But at least some of the mosture and energy should get wrapped cyclonically towards our region as it comes inland. If the track ends up being along or east of the Appalachians, then impacts would be much more limited. But that looks unlikely right now. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 24, 2024 15:11:41 GMT -6
Hurricane models are now showing Helene moving onto the Yucatán peninsula which would considerably delay its strengthening and lead to a weaker overall storm. Just one model run, but this was the first model suite with full recon data assimilated. Between possible land interaction and increasing forward speed, this storm might not have a lot of room for rapid deepening. But the Gulf is running pretty warm so the potential for a strong hurricane is there if it can get organized. Well if it does a Francine and doesn't strengthen much before landfall or only gets to low hurricane status that would be good news for the Gulf, but would keep everything farther away from us. Just depends if this thing can get wrapped up or not. Seems like there's always something. Shear, Fast Speed, Dry slotting, etc. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 24, 2024 15:22:19 GMT -6
Well most models aren't thrilled precip wise outside of the UKMET and the EURO, but the HPC does show the center of Helene getting to Carlye/Mt. Vernon, IL by 2PM Saturday...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 24, 2024 15:52:16 GMT -6
Hurricane models are now showing Helene moving onto the Yucatán peninsula which would considerably delay its strengthening and lead to a weaker overall storm. Just one model run, but this was the first model suite with full recon data assimilated. Between possible land interaction and increasing forward speed, this storm might not have a lot of room for rapid deepening. But the Gulf is running pretty warm so the potential for a strong hurricane is there if it can get organized. Buckle up, it's threading the needle, shear is decreasing. Steady pressure falls now |
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Post by weatherj on Sept 24, 2024 16:00:24 GMT -6
The future path of Helene rotating around the low over Arkansas back to the northwest and the fujiwhara effect almost reminds me of the forbidden to talk about Christmas eve blizzard of 2009...lol.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2024 16:15:16 GMT -6
The seasonal trend says it might not explode, but history of storms with this point of origin says otherwise. Let’s see but yes organization finally appears to be taking place. A heck of a lot can happen in 48ish hours (Michael, Charley, oh and the 1848 great Tampa hurricane  among many others. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 24, 2024 17:19:01 GMT -6
She is definitely trying to take off right now. Pressure is steadily falling and convection around the center is increasing.
If she can avoid the yucutan tomorrow then there isn’t much stopping her
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 24, 2024 17:23:06 GMT -6
18z hurricane models all are pretty much back to a CAT 4 with the avoided land interaction.
Should be interesting
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2024 18:22:14 GMT -6
Yep she’s fixing to go off now! Concentric convection around circulation, very large spray of cirrus in all directions.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2024 18:25:16 GMT -6
Looks like OKC just had a pretty destructive hail storm go right over the city as well.
Mother Nature never stays quiet for long…
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 24, 2024 18:45:48 GMT -6
Looks like OKC just had a pretty destructive hail storm go right over the city as well. Mother Nature never stays quiet for long… hail sizes ranged from tennis balls to baseballs according to storm reports. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 24, 2024 20:10:50 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 24, 2024 20:53:09 GMT -6
LOL to the 3KM NAM's sub 880mb Cat 5 hurricane. NAM is overall wetter this run and a bit more west and north which is good (for rain prospects).
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 24, 2024 21:09:47 GMT -6
Environment for Helene is looking extremely favorable for the next 36 to maybe 48 hours. SHIPS diagnostic output has shear <10kts, 80% mid-level RH, and SSTs about 31C. Started off as a naked swirl this morning and now appears to be developing a vertically stacked convective core. Good chances we see a period of rapid intensification fairly soon assuming it skirts through the channel.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 24, 2024 21:13:08 GMT -6
With 1622 tornado reports so far, this year has already been well above average. Wouldn't be surprised to see another chunk added to the tally with Helene.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2024 21:22:57 GMT -6
It almost looks like Helene is suddenly trying to open an eye already, unless that's just coincidental convective arrangement. Sure looks concentric though.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 24, 2024 21:46:40 GMT -6
It almost looks like Helene is suddenly trying to open an eye already, unless that's just coincidental convective arrangement. Sure looks concentric though. I was just thinking the same thing. By the way... I know we need a new thread... and I'm hoping to crank one up tomorrow. As for the ultimate track of Helene and the rain and the impact here. It is VERY, VERY unusual to get a tropical system to pull the hard left and rotate back this way in true Fujiwhara fashion. The slightly slower evolution of Helene may also lower the risk of heavy rain this far northwest as it gives the upper low longer to dig south and southeast. This would effectively cause the moisture to pivot further south as the upper low undercuts the tropical circulation. With such a complex interaction, I have very little faith in the actual model solutions. I think it's best to stay the course with a good chance for more soaking rain...especially for areas southeast of I-44 in MO and south of I-70 in Illinois. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 25, 2024 6:28:42 GMT -6
Pressure is down to 979mb….. winds up to 70 ….. she looks like she is ready to take off
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 25, 2024 9:23:10 GMT -6
Those hurricane warnings extend deep inland. Helene will be zooming at landfall.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 25, 2024 10:04:07 GMT -6
There goes the media again…”Helene RAPIDLY intensifies into a Hurricane.” That was not rapid intensification. From here until landfall though might be a different story.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 25, 2024 10:10:24 GMT -6
An increase of winds of 30or 35 mph in 24 hours is officially rapid intensification isn't it? It was just designated a ts yesterday morning
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 25, 2024 11:04:52 GMT -6
12z hurricane models seem like in on a CAT 4.
As stated above, the forward speed will bring hurricane force winds unusually far inland for Georgia. Interesting for Atlanta.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 11:20:06 GMT -6
12Z GFS brings us some hefty winds with 25-35 mph sustained and gusts to 45-55 mph and even approaching 60mph in south/central Illinois Friday night into Saturday early morning as she rotates into the Carbondale area. That's almost Ike 2008 level winds. That was a crazy storm even this far inland. It's like Ike 2.0 but from Florida instead of Texas.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 25, 2024 12:12:41 GMT -6
Models seem to be nudging the landfall location east which might spare Tallahassee the brunt of the hurricane
Going to be a close call for them
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 25, 2024 12:21:26 GMT -6
Models seem to be nudging the landfall location east which might spare Tallahassee the brunt of the hurricane Going to be a close call for them Less developed part of the Big Bend area as well with regards to the potentially catastrophic storm surge given forecasted size and strength. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 25, 2024 12:40:09 GMT -6
looking at this it doesn't look like we'll get much rain in the city  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 12:54:23 GMT -6
looking at this it doesn't look like we'll get much rain in the city That's gotta probably get shifted back northwest a bit. I44/I-70 (MO/IL respectively) on southeast including the immediate metro is still in a good spot. Northwest of that and where the cut-off is what's the question. Latest Hurricane runs as of 12Z look pretty solid for the southeastern 2/3rds of the area. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 25, 2024 13:49:51 GMT -6
She’s actually kind of struggling to maintain organization this afternoon.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 25, 2024 14:02:57 GMT -6
Big shift north on the extended HRRR, shpwing the precip shield now getting right on the I44/I70 corridor, but not past it. Still a few counties northward shift. A couple more and we could be in a good spot.
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among many others. 
