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Post by mchafin on Feb 10, 2024 16:29:33 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2024 16:43:07 GMT -6
18z NAM tracks the mid-level features very close to the GYB wheelhouse for the Metro...this one is starting to interest me a bit more.
Still liking the 0-2" call though, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 10, 2024 17:32:14 GMT -6
Really looking forward to that 0-T" IMBY via NWS.
I think they are too far S. A lot of guidance has pretty toasty mid-level temps for much of the event across SEMO due to the strong TROWAL.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 10, 2024 17:52:01 GMT -6
Really looking forward to that 0-T" IMBY via NWS. I think they are too far S. A lot of guidance has pretty toasty mid-level temps for much of the event across SEMO due to the strong TROWAL. I have 1 inch or less Monday day. Up to 1/2 inch Monday night for Waterloo!..meh. 18z gfs has no cold intrusion..models are on the struggle bus..or they know and I just don't like what I see. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 10, 2024 19:44:23 GMT -6
Almost a perfect Memphis low track coming up on the Euro and extended HRRR. Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the 00Z runs.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 10, 2024 20:05:33 GMT -6
NWS now calling for a narrow band of 4" in the area where no one lives.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 10, 2024 20:37:36 GMT -6
The latest NAM is almost hilarious ……. 8 inches to the southwest and 8 inches just to the east ………a couple of inches down our way
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Post by RyanD on Feb 10, 2024 21:38:25 GMT -6
The latest NAM is almost hilarious ……. 8 inches to the southwest and 8 inches just to the east ………a couple of inches down our way 10:1 it drops 8" in Marissa. Obviously that's not counting compaction or melting. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 10, 2024 21:50:32 GMT -6
The latest NAM is almost hilarious ……. 8 inches to the southwest and 8 inches just to the east ………a couple of inches down our way 10:1 it drops 8" in Marissa. Obviously that's not counting compaction or melting. I was looking at the Kuchera method…. Crazy how different they are |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 10, 2024 22:12:35 GMT -6
00z GFS looks for the Metro and points just south.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 10, 2024 23:03:39 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. No changes tonight.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2024 0:20:48 GMT -6
I think time of day and lack of cold air is going to severely hamper this system in the metro and IL side
The NBM shows decent totals across SW MO that trail off to almost nothing up this way
Tracking these systems with no cold is getting really old really fast
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 11, 2024 6:53:22 GMT -6
NWS now calling for a narrow band of 4" in the area where no one lives.
If locally higher amounts happen in that circle, I won’t be mad. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2024 7:35:17 GMT -6
Looks like our northward shift have stopped, now trending south again. Steady as she goes like chris says.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2024 7:43:32 GMT -6
New runs won't give St. Louis much if anything. Pretty much just the southern most quarter of the area now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 8:00:18 GMT -6
Bluebirds are singing this morning...I've never been more ready for spring in my life!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2024 8:17:55 GMT -6
New runs won't give St. Louis much if anything. Pretty much just the southern most quarter of the area now. check your fractions, southern quarter, lol |
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 11, 2024 8:45:24 GMT -6
Bluebirds are singing this morning...I've never been more ready for spring in my life! Beautiful sunshine too, as I sip my coffee. I agree 100%. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 8:49:18 GMT -6
So much for the N shift...NAM barely gets precip into the Metro now.
I'm loosing track of how many times SEMO/SOIL has been jackpotted while we're high and dry up this way.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 11, 2024 10:34:27 GMT -6
So much for the N shift...NAM barely gets precip into the Metro now. I'm loosing track of how many times SEMO/SOIL has been jackpotted while we're high and dry up this way. Someday we need to compile the data. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2024 10:40:32 GMT -6
GFS looks nice and toasty next week after a quick cold shot this weekend
Bring on spring
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 11:11:28 GMT -6
I have looked at the new observational and forecast data and I just don’t see anything that makes me want to deviate significantly from the placement of the heavier snow band I’ve had forecast for the past several days. The only tweak I’ve made, geographically, was to expand the more significant accumulations a little more to the southeast… taking in Perry and all of Madison County in Missouri. While the placement has changed very little, I now have enough confidence in the location of that heavier band to boost numbers a little bit. I’m going with a 2-5 inch, wet sloppy snow… an increase from the 1-3 inches I was showing with that band earlier. The potential limiting factors have been well documented over the past few days… marginal air and ground temps and time of day. Originally, this looked like a pre-dawn event, but over the past several days the system has slowed and the vast majority of it will fall during the day. It will take some pretty exceptionally heavy snow to get it to accumulate.. which is possible over the eastern Ozarks given the very favorable dynamics that are in place for a strong, narrow band of snowfall…. To say nothing of the potential for upright convection as well! Yes, thunder snow is a very real possibility between Salem MO and Farmington tomorrow. It’s possible some could see more than 5 inches…but given the strong mitigating factors, I think it is wise to not get too aggressive with forecast totals. The other factor that may help with snowfall efficiency is the elevation of the eastern Ozarks. Now, with a 2-5 inch band… I need a buffer zone and the one I have painted on there is likely too generous in some places. The actual drop from 2 inches to nothing is probably going to be over single miles… not tens of miles. But I wanted to leave some wiggle room there…especially up into metro St. Louis. That being said. I think the UHI is likely to curtail and snow accumulation of consequence in metro STL… assuming we are able to get any snow up that way at all. Obviously the metro is on the northern fringe of the precipitation field. As for the Illinois side of the river… the drop in elevation, time of day and model trends to weaken the mesoscale banding in Illinois for a time have me keeping much of southern Illinois in the trace to 2 inch range.     |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2024 11:45:11 GMT -6
Most of the 12Z models today bring nothing into the entire metro area at large.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2024 11:47:27 GMT -6
Just blah.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2024 11:49:27 GMT -6
This year we aren't even getting our typical Feb 2nd to 15th major snow.
The last two Sundays winters have been nothing..
And my back yard was lucky enough to get a 6-8" November 2022 snow storm..
And this year that surprise 3-5" compacting wey snow
Both storms vanished quickly tho.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 12:05:38 GMT -6
Models may have shifted south a bit, but the theme is the same. Mostly noise now as the output floats on either side of the mean track that has been pretty solid actually for the past couple of days. I'm holding steady for the most part.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 12:06:52 GMT -6
There's nothing typical about a major snowstorm in St. Louis...lol
We can barely break an inch the past 2 years.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 12:08:48 GMT -6
The simulated radar products I posted are from the in-house IBM model... but shifted north a few miles to better match the ensemble 850mb low tracks.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 11, 2024 13:35:58 GMT -6
WWA for 2-4 inches is out by National Weather Service STL. Came across as a text to me in Festus!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2024 14:08:48 GMT -6
Well the 18z NAM is a complete swing and miss for the entire area lol
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