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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2023 17:18:14 GMT -6
This system looked scary similar to the winter systems we follow (at least with the end result). Dry donut hole ish shape over the immediate STL metro. Thoughts go to all the southern counties, plus west, and out near and around Jefferson City, and lastly areas just east of Salem, IL where a dangerous amount of rain fell. According to this estimated map at least (from the NWS), looks like just ESE of Salem got the most rain (near a foot)! It will be interesting to see what rain gauges in the hardest hit areas record and how that compares to this map.  Have to say the HRRR did very well sniffing out the two distinct zones of heavy rainfall. |
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sgdragons
Wishcaster
Posts: 146
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Post by sgdragons on Aug 3, 2023 17:37:57 GMT -6
1.25” Last Night/Today, on top of the .5” we received yesterday morning. NW SG County
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 3, 2023 18:16:55 GMT -6
When it rains it pours for some
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2023 18:17:31 GMT -6
Looks like another deluge on the way for Central/SE MO...wash, rinse, repeat!
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 3, 2023 18:35:12 GMT -6
Our drought is over, right?
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Post by amstilost on Aug 3, 2023 19:05:38 GMT -6
What are the chances that any winter Alberta Clippers have this same look or path to them?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2023 20:06:25 GMT -6
What are the chances that any winter Alberta Clippers have this same look or path to them? Slim to none, lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2023 20:07:48 GMT -6
Our drought is over, right? Not around here it isn't...still running a large deficit IMBY |
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 3, 2023 20:13:50 GMT -6
Had right at 2” here near grants farm. Like the 4th or 5th 2-3” rain event since the drought first started to break
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2023 20:36:00 GMT -6
Had right at 2” here near grants farm. Like the 4th or 5th 2-3” rain event since the drought first started to break I don't think I've recieved 3" from May to now...amazing the difference 30mi makes when it comes to weather. Even Godfrey/Alton has had significantly more rainfall than up here. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 4, 2023 1:38:26 GMT -6
Starting to get alittle overlapping light showers here. But nothing major. I'll take anything.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 4, 2023 2:42:08 GMT -6
Same areas getting hammered tonight. Maybe not quite as bad. But they don't need any more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 4:51:40 GMT -6
Reed is hyping up the severe potential around here on Sunday...that is a pretty deep and vigorous looking trof digging in. Should be some steep lapse rates and healthy shear with that setup.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 4, 2023 5:10:05 GMT -6
Got about a 1/3 of and inch last night in South St.peters.
Honestly for the metro this has been a great rain because it has been a soaking not run off completely type this week.
Looks like more coming this weekend, and yes I agree with you all Sunday afternoon. Looks potentially dangerous with initiation just west of the metro on the nam then racing through.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 4, 2023 7:52:48 GMT -6
1.18 overnight..4.62 this week..on the eastern edge of the heaviest.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 4, 2023 8:22:16 GMT -6
This system looked scary similar to the winter systems we follow (at least with the end result). Dry donut hole ish shape over the immediate STL metro. Thoughts go to all the southern counties, plus west, and out near and around Jefferson City, and lastly areas just east of Salem, IL where a dangerous amount of rain fell. According to this estimated map at least (from the NWS), looks like just ESE of Salem got the most rain (near a foot)! It will be interesting to see what rain gauges in the hardest hit areas record and how that compares to this map. Have to say the HRRR did very well sniffing out the two distinct zones of heavy rainfall. Yeah I agree. I like the HRRR. I hope you can manage to get more rain soon. |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 4, 2023 8:35:59 GMT -6
Another 1.5" 7 miles west of De Soto. 6.25" combined this week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 4, 2023 8:59:14 GMT -6
Small but potent shortwave across Eastern Kansas moving this way later today
Should be enough to kick off some storms
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 9:45:53 GMT -6
Have to say the HRRR did very well sniffing out the two distinct zones of heavy rainfall. Yeah I agree. I like the HRRR. I hope you can manage to get more rain soon. I'm not holding my breath... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 10:47:00 GMT -6
That persistent firing line out west looks to be budging a bit eastward ahead of the shortwave 920 mentioned as well as an outflow boundary/gravity wave from this morning' storms approaching the river. Looks like some development is likely near the Metro this afternoon.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 4, 2023 13:11:47 GMT -6
I might be in the minority but I’m ready for 2 weeks of peace and quiet weather wise.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 4, 2023 14:16:23 GMT -6
Another 80° dew point. Geez!!!!!
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Post by amstilost on Aug 4, 2023 14:34:30 GMT -6
Someone please explain why the NWS keeps changing their forecasts so much in such short time spans. Yesterday, noonish, the rain was supposed to taper off and they were going with a 20% chance of rain overnight. That changed rather drastically yesterday afternoon. Now today, my area had a forecast for 60% chance of heavy rain this afternoon and an 80% chance of heavy rain tonight. I just get on the STL site and see the Flood Watch northwest of me. I look on the point forecast and now I have a 20% chance of showers/storms this afternoon and a 30% chance showers/storms tonight. It just seems like a LOT of changes in a short amount of time.
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Post by yypc on Aug 4, 2023 14:48:41 GMT -6
Another 80° dew point. Geez!!!!! Was out there for a couple hours and got completely drenched. The skeeters are out with a vengance too. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 15:23:43 GMT -6
Storms are trying to develop out west but seems like they are struggling to establish updrafts...not sure if there's some capping or what
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 4, 2023 15:32:39 GMT -6
Well that's different. Radar is showing a north/south orientation to the showers and west to east movement.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 4, 2023 15:45:00 GMT -6
Storms are trying to develop out west but seems like they are struggling to establish updrafts...not sure if there's some capping or what Yep... lapse rates are pretty weak- less than 6*c/km where they are developing. Lapse rates are a bit better south & east. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 17:01:36 GMT -6
Buzzsaw of an MCV out in NW MO
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 4, 2023 17:31:48 GMT -6
Do we think that will ride down and nail us? I am starved for storms right now, and I will gladly take them away from our friends to the west.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 4, 2023 17:42:51 GMT -6
Looks like tonight could be rainy for the northern counties as that MCV slides ESE...mid-day NAM is bullish with QPF up this way.
Still not holding my breath, lol
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