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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 14:48:50 GMT -6
I’ll take the Ukmet please. The euro would just give the same Wisconsin border counties all the snow similar to the entire winter. They’ve been struggling this year as well. Only recently have they cashed in. They got more snow in one storm than I have had all season back in February. Then, they had a big ice storm with some snow last week. They might get a foot out of this one. They are doing just fine. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 14:49:43 GMT -6
12z EPS is nice and cold from midweek next week onward.
Those warm March forecasts are going to bust hard.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2023 15:18:38 GMT -6
Man, those are some extra diabolic forecast soundings on the NAM in Arkansas Thursday night.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2023 15:24:19 GMT -6
12z euro has another monster brewing in the D9-10 range. Nice Let's go, I'm ready to track the next disappointment. Although, I'm not quite sure what to make of that Euro D10 monstrosity... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 15:41:06 GMT -6
Man, those are some extra diabolic forecast soundings on the NAM in Arkansas Thursday night. I’d love to chase down there Thursday since I have so much vacation time at work built up. But Dixie at night with fast storm motions is a hard pass for me. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 28, 2023 19:29:18 GMT -6
It’s a big storm , but the temperature is 32 at 6 am on day 10 doesn’t really scream cold air. EPS is definitely colder than normal, but GFS and GEFS are much less excited about colder than normal temperatures. Hopefully we catch a run of cold and snow, but I’m still not sold on it . SO many things have to line up for us to get snow in mid - late March.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 28, 2023 20:18:47 GMT -6
Ya I've pretty much lost interest over a month ago. When things wouldn't budge and it seemed like the Jan warmth wouldn't let go. I just hope for once our severe weather season is decent. It's been lackluster in our area too.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 28, 2023 20:46:41 GMT -6
Yeah, that "thing" at the end Euro run is something else. That has to be the biggest cutoff low I've ever seen.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 28, 2023 20:47:54 GMT -6
Man, those are some extra diabolic forecast soundings on the NAM in Arkansas Thursday night. I’d love to chase down there Thursday since I have so much vacation time at work built up. But Dixie at night with fast storm motions is a hard pass for me. The trees don't have leaves on them yet so it might not be that bad. I get it being dark and fast storm motions though. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 28, 2023 21:01:11 GMT -6
I would imagine it’s pretty hilly down there
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2023 21:04:01 GMT -6
Ya I've pretty much lost interest over a month ago. When things wouldn't budge and it seemed like the Jan warmth wouldn't let go. I just hope for once our severe weather season is decent. It's been lackluster in our area too. Severe weather has been very active in the south so far this year. But seasonal severe forecasting is a crapshoot. That being said I wouldn't hold your breath on an active season around here. Expect below average until proven wrong. My guesscast is 8 watch days all year (including the one we already had); twice as active as last year but still below the long term average (which is already skewed down a little due to a relatively tranquil last decade). As a point of reference in very active years we can get up to 15 or more days but I think around 10 or so is (or used to be) pretty typical. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 21:09:08 GMT -6
I would imagine it’s pretty hilly down there The terrain in Dixie is nightmarish overall for chasing.
Thick forest, windy roads, and LCLs are usually ground scrappingly low.
Chasing down there is on my bucket list, just have to find the right opportunity.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 28, 2023 21:13:26 GMT -6
Yeah wait for slower moving storms
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 21:14:20 GMT -6
Not to mention the high probability of tornadoes being rain wrapped. Dixie would be the last place I'd chase at...night or day.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 28, 2023 21:48:27 GMT -6
I know theres excitement with the teleconnection indices showing favorable for a colder weather pattern. Recent cpc outlooks and hazards outlooks even give cause for expectations of more winter. But the avg high from now on is 50 or above. We could be in the 30s and 40s and rainy while snowstorms ravage the upper midwest and still meet the criteria to verify the cpc outlooks. Tracking a winterstorm through our region this time of year takes a random set of circumstances. Not that its not going to happen, just that its unlikely.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 28, 2023 21:51:00 GMT -6
Yes - we know
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 21:58:12 GMT -6
Hey now, 00z gfs drops some hamsters right over Beaker’s house Friday.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 28, 2023 21:59:20 GMT -6
GFS trying to baby step this storm back south. Probably futile at this point with temps upper 30s to low 40s as the deformation swings through.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 22:07:24 GMT -6
00z ggem is way down south but too warm.
Pretty amazing model spread at this lead time.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 28, 2023 22:20:35 GMT -6
I’m guessing there will be several inches of quick wet snow within 50 miles of STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 28, 2023 22:23:43 GMT -6
I mean if the gem is too warm, you know it's a lost cause lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 22:30:31 GMT -6
Big shift south on the 00z GEFS.
Now, just need the deepening to happen at the right time to cool things sufficiently for snow.
The occluding low isn’t going to help, so just need good timing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 22:38:25 GMT -6
Big shift south on the 00z GEFS. Now, just need the deepening to happen at the right time to cool things sufficiently for snow. The occluding low isn’t going to help, so just need good timing. Not a single 00z GEFS member takes the low north of STL Compare that to the 12z GEFS where half the members took the low north of STL and oh yeah, the 00z NAM that just came out has the low almost in eastern Kansas lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 22:43:57 GMT -6
Big shift south on the 00z GEFS. Now, just need the deepening to happen at the right time to cool things sufficiently for snow. The occluding low isn’t going to help, so just need good timing. Not a single 00z GEFS member takes the low north of STL Compare that to the 12z GEFS where half the members took the low north of STL and oh yeah, the 00z NAM that just came out has the low almost in eastern Kansas lol 00z Ukmet is south too. Just the poor nam all by itself now lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 22:52:19 GMT -6
If only we had some cold air to work with
A further south track just means a colder and more miserable rain, lol
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 1, 2023 7:23:51 GMT -6
GFS doesn’t have any snow now until you get into Illinois lol Good news is there are a few more disappointments on this model run
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 1, 2023 7:42:24 GMT -6
Can't wait till everything comes together for several inches of snow Friday morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 9:33:55 GMT -6
Still some pretty big differences between models with the 00/06z runs with the EC substantially further NW than the GFS. The mid-level low track that the GFS shows is favorable for snow in the Metro but there's no cold air. The EC taps a bit more cold air but it sets up across Central MO.
Let's see what the 12z runs show I guess...full sampling should occur by tonight's runs.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 10:03:28 GMT -6
06z GEFS mean looks great, similar to the 00z GEM...but cold air is just lacking overall.
12z GFS shows the changeover occurring across central IL...so close yet so far away
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 1, 2023 10:15:58 GMT -6
Happy first day of Meteorological spring
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