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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 20:47:31 GMT -6
Lol, the 00z nam is just a hair amped/northwest
At least it is consistent with being awful at this range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 20:49:06 GMT -6
Pretty crazy sounding across the southern counties on that NAM run Literally an off the charts hodograph  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 20:53:12 GMT -6
00z nam has 70mph gusts in northern Missouri with a rapidly deepening low over KC.
One way or another, this Friday system will deliver something interesting.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 27, 2023 20:58:13 GMT -6
not here probably lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 21:13:55 GMT -6
Just a few hundred mile difference between the 00z nam and rgem 😂
Pathetic
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 27, 2023 21:59:55 GMT -6
0Z GFS drops 10mb in 6 hours.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 22:02:43 GMT -6
Im really starting to question if anybody is going to see appreciable accumulating snow from this system
It's just pulling up so much warm air and wrapping it in on itself that even strong dynamic cooling cant overcome it
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 22:04:30 GMT -6
Im really starting to question if anybody is going to see appreciable accumulating snow from this system It's just pulling up so much warm air and wrapping it in on itself that even strong dynamic cooling cant overcome it Eh, that’s just the gfs. Euro and Ukmet have been showing an extensive snowfield north of the low. I think somebody will get 12–18 inches in about 6 hours with blizzard conditions. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 22:06:51 GMT -6
0Z GFS drops 10mb in 6 hours. It shows 974mb over STL. Is that the record? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 27, 2023 22:09:34 GMT -6
Im really starting to question if anybody is going to see appreciable accumulating snow from this system It's just pulling up so much warm air and wrapping it in on itself that even strong dynamic cooling cant overcome it Eh, that’s just the gfs. Euro and Ukmet have been showing an extensive snowfield north of the low. I think somebody will get 12–18 inches in about 6 hours with blizzard conditions. Call me skeptical
I think the max will be a small strip of 6-8"
That's what the NBM is suggesting
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 22:15:39 GMT -6
Eh, that’s just the gfs. Euro and Ukmet have been showing an extensive snowfield north of the low. I think somebody will get 12–18 inches in about 6 hours with blizzard conditions. Call me skeptical
I think the max will be a small strip of 6-8"
That's what the NBM is suggesting
Seems conservative. It hasn’t been that warm up here and temps are in the 30-32 range when the death band moves through. Somebody from Iowa to Indiana will get buried. If it trends south/weaker where temps are more marginal (I.e STL) then I agree the max band will struggle. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 27, 2023 22:18:17 GMT -6
00z ggem remains the southern outlier and hammers the central/northeastern Illinois counties in the metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 27, 2023 22:33:38 GMT -6
That's actually a really nice track of the 850mb low and 500mb vorticity max on the GEM. The problem is that pesky lack of cold air. Well that and it's also a significant southern outlier at this point.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 27, 2023 22:47:08 GMT -6
Ukmet is decent track better than 12z shows a little snow in the metro. I think you will see all the hyped model’s tone it down over the next few days, the slightly weaker southern solution may win out, I’m just not sure if there will be enough cold air to produce any snow for us. Time of day and sun angle will really hurts things unless the snow rates are really heavy.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 28, 2023 8:17:52 GMT -6
System is dead.
9 hours since last post is all you need to know to make such a declaration!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 8:33:07 GMT -6
I see NYC got a couple inches...they lucked out.
GEM and UKIE still keep us in the game. Let's see if the amped models start to come back to reality today.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 28, 2023 8:59:16 GMT -6
12Z NAM brings wrap around snow showers and or flizzard in Friday evening night as the low pulls out. Also getting pretty close to that Severe Storm Risk zone. This looks to be a major textbook outbreak from the MO bootheel south throughout Dixie Alley.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 9:01:04 GMT -6
06z GFS came a bit S with the 500mb track closer to the GEM/UKIE but still has a stacked cyclone with the 850/SLP tracking too far N for snowfall in the Metro. It's close though...looks like the W and N counties get some snow on that run.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 9:43:15 GMT -6
The 12z NAM would certainly support a severe threat even up into the metro Friday morning as the low bombs out and occludes just to our west
A dynamic system for sure
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 9:56:26 GMT -6
12z gfs is a 976 bomb over Union.
Drops incredibly heavy snow across the northern counties.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 28, 2023 9:59:28 GMT -6
Sounds like a winner to me, ear popping pressure and rain here while 3 inches and hr of snow is falling 50 miles west. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 28, 2023 10:03:13 GMT -6
Meh. The positive snow depth on the GFS is pretty unremarkable for the area Maybe a couple inches of slop It won’t take much heavy wet snow to cause power outages with the kind of winds being modeled  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 10:03:22 GMT -6
Sounds like a winner to me, ear popping pressure and rain here while 3 inches and hr of snow is falling 50 miles west. Lol Close enough to drive to if you have the time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 10:12:04 GMT -6
We need to see a 6-12hr delay with the negative tilt/rapid deepening to occur for any snow chances in the Metro. The amped models like the NAM are going KABOOM too early and pull the storm almost due N or NNE into MO with a ~113dm h85 low cutting to our west. It looks a bit questionable with the handling of the mid-level low after it passes south of the 4 Corners with the center trying to jump way N into SE CO while the primary vort/speed max is down near the TX/MX border.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 28, 2023 10:12:32 GMT -6
Unfortunately, I would not call Hanibal the northern metro nor would I consider Springfield Illinois the north eastern metro. The metro is pretty much any county touching St. Louis County give or take. Nothing really modeled within an hour of St Louis .
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 10:17:49 GMT -6
Unfortunately, I would not call Hanibal the northern metro nor would I consider Springfield Illinois the north eastern metro. The metro is pretty much any county touching St. Louis County give or take. Nothing really modeled within an hour of St Louis . Warren and Lincoln county show up when I Google STL metro. They receive very heavy snow according to the gfs Now, does it melt quickly? Yes. Would it be a hell of a sight for 3-6 hours? Also, yes. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 10:24:47 GMT -6
Both the GFS and NAM show a "curl" of the low center wrapping in and nearly stalling overhead or just to the W with a deep occlusion. If that happens just a bit later, the Metro would be in business. The snow line should nearly hug the SLP with a cyclone that deep...standard GYB rules won't apply with a nearly vertically stacked intense low of that magnitude. But that's assuming it will be that strong...I still don't buy the sub-980mb depictions.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 28, 2023 10:25:25 GMT -6
From a synoptic point of view... it really hasn't changed that much. In the end though... it wants to make sure it misses the metro.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 28, 2023 10:28:29 GMT -6
12z GEFS looks good for the the northern metro/viewing area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2023 10:35:22 GMT -6
The GFS is very close to getting snow into the Metro...the h85 low nearly stalls overhead with the zero line crashing in. But that pivot/stall happens just a bit too quickly.
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