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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 11:05:57 GMT -6
Never bet against the Ukmet. Was the most south/weakest the entire time. The snow band on the UK doesnt make sense to me. It is south of the 850 low track. A lot will hinge on how fast the upper low opens up and begins to shear out. To be clear, I am not expecting huge numbers Tuesday night/Wed. But a respectable system seems reasonable... a solid advisory type event at least. I’m not saying nothing, but the upside potential is disappearing quickly. With marginal temps, 2-4 will disappear by evening on Wednesday so just not as interesting from my perspective. Better than nothing though. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 11:07:43 GMT -6
Never bet against the Ukmet. Was the most south/weakest the entire time. Realistically, the heavy band needs to materialize or the 1-3 inch stuff will just melt as temps are somewhere between 33-36 as the precip shuts down before more cold air gets coaxed down. For sure... The thing that will help accumulation a bit is time of day...unless it slows down more and the snow doesnt get started until after sunrise. Then it may be tough. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 11:15:12 GMT -6
Meanwhile...
There is this thing coming our way tonight. It still looks super minor here. A light mix of rain and some wet snow. I just dont see anything more than a hint of a dusting on grass and elevated surfaces. I still think the potential is there for a little more than a dusting in that band southeast of metro STL. 2 inches may be too high... but some 1 inch totals are possible IMO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 11:34:53 GMT -6
12z GFS still has the h85 low track from Little Rock to Cave-in-Rock...no significant shift there. The GEM is a bit SE of that but tracks the remnant 500mb low overhead. We're still solidly in the game.
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Post by NewTownWeather on Jan 21, 2023 12:06:20 GMT -6
GEFS about the same. Locked in for several runs now. The ensemble mean looks great, but breaking it down by members shows the swing and miss potential still
My personal favorite of those is E29 and since it represents the Union and Saint Louis snow hole so well… lock it in haha |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 12:11:51 GMT -6
Only 4 or 5 members that don't have impactful amounts in the Metro...not bad
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 12:15:00 GMT -6
Only 4 or 5 members that don't have impactful amounts in the Metro...not bad That's from yesterday, you don't want to see what today's look like lol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 12:21:10 GMT -6
Euro sucks
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2023 12:21:54 GMT -6
Only 4 or 5 members that don't have impactful amounts in the Metro...not bad That's from yesterday, you don't want to see what today's look like lol Sure wouldn't think that looking at the operational. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 12:41:09 GMT -6
Yes trends definitely stink today, we went with what looked like a solid warning level 4-8” storm to a 1-3” maybe 4” type event. Pretty much on every model at this point. We should know better than to get excited so early, 75% of time it’s a let down with our weather.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 12:51:41 GMT -6
Only thing I can say is that many times models do weaken things too quickly. So theres that I guess. Pretty major changes on 24 hours. Hopefully it gets samples as much stronger. And also diving into Mexico can't happen
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 13:00:35 GMT -6
Energy making landfall currently  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 13:10:14 GMT -6
The high-end potential is getting slashed pretty hard on the ensembles. Chances of 4" or more have taken a nose dive, except in the SW counties  |
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Jan 21, 2023 13:56:59 GMT -6
I saw Chris's latest announcement on messageboard changes so thought I better log in and make sure everything still works.  I haven't been on here in awhile. Can I ask someone, on the Snowstorm920's post right above me, what do all the numbers on the map mean? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2023 14:13:51 GMT -6
I saw Chris's latest announcement on messageboard changes so thought I better log in and make sure everything still works. I haven't been on here in awhile. Can I ask someone, on the Snowstorm920's post right above me, what do all the numbers on the map mean? Those are the probabilities of more than 4 in of snow accumulating. The probabilities are taking a nosedive as the system being modeled is being modeled weaker and more sheared. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 21, 2023 14:41:20 GMT -6
Correct me if I am wrong, but we have also seen a thousand times models to trend weaker only to regain what was previously modeled later on. Maybe that’ll happen with this one…
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 15:19:35 GMT -6
Pretty good write up this afternoon:
“The system is still expected to track northeast generally along the Mississippi River/Ohio River Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the 12z suite of ensemble guidance and most deterministic models are a bit further southeast with the track than this time yesterday. With this shift in the track, the axis of higher QPF is further southeast as a result. Regardless, this general pattern is climatologically favorable for our region seeing accumulating snow as it places us within the deformation zone of a mature cyclone. The question of amounts and location of greatest impact remains a bit unclear, mainly because near-surface temperatures are forecast to be near-freezing. However, with the higher potential for frontogenesis and mesoscale banding to enhance snowfall rates for parts of the region (predominantly along and south of I-70), temperatures will likely cool lower than currently forecast. Looking at model soundings, though taking them with a grain of salt at this lead time, the column appears sufficiently cool to preclude much mixed precipitation that would impact snowfall totals.
Ensemble mean QPF accordingly shunted to the southeast given the new ensemble consensus of the low`s track, but anywhere from 0.25" to 0.50" is modeled along and south of I-70 in Missouri and Illinois. Even with a conservative 10:1 snow-liquid ratio, these values are cause for some concern. Within that QPF maximum, mesoscale processes will likely locally-enhance snowfall efficiency, driving up totals. There also will likely be some minor difference in final snowfall totals in the Ozarks as compared to surrounding low-lying areas given such marginal surface temperatures at first. While details are yet to be resolved, a winter storm appears more likely than not late Tuesday into Wednesday, affecting travel in some way for a large swath of the region. While the potential certainly exists for more moderate impacts from the storm, confidence is no higher than it was 12 hours ago regarding that aspect.”
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 15:45:08 GMT -6
18z Icon has the primary band in southeastern Missouri and is quite warm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 16:02:14 GMT -6
18z gfs is good for the southern counties.
Not good for STL on north.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2023 16:03:17 GMT -6
me, gfs gives stl 6 inches
I wouldn't call that bad
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 16:06:13 GMT -6
me, gfs gives stl 6 inches I wouldn't call that bad Kuchera is 2-3 inches for STL. Ratios will be bad outside the main band. And melting will begin as soon as moderate precipitation is lost. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 21, 2023 16:13:28 GMT -6
Im sure trends will come back northwest tomorrow back to yesterdays models, although im thinking more of 2 to 4 inch type verses 4 to 8. And with warm ground may be gone quick.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 16:13:51 GMT -6
GFS not bad , unfortunately non of them are “really good” at this point
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2023 16:19:48 GMT -6
Folks... we need to try hard to put blinders on when it comes to the location of the QPF field... and look at the track of the key features. The GFS forecast features are perfect.... the 500 vort max, 850mb/700mb/500mb lows all support a heavy snow band further north. The only center that is out of phase seems to be the surface low. So I think there is a strong possibility the QPF will end up further northwest by a county or two. GYB rarely lets me down and I think we are "steady as she goes" I'm not saying its a huge storm... but it's not going to be a swing and miss in my opinion.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 16:22:52 GMT -6
With what I’m currently seeing on the models, 1-4” is a good early first call 1” northern areas 4” southern areas with STL immediate metro 2-3” range. This takes into account melting/compaction/low ratios/borderline temps etc. This could easily change tomorrow, unfortunately it’s like the low digs to deep into Texas, it’s ejection angle is to slow and to far south. The weaker model trends aren’t deeping the storm quick enough to pull it north into the sweet spot for us. We actually need a little stronger storm the continues to deepen not , close off to our south then open up over top of us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2023 16:24:26 GMT -6
The 500mb vort getting shredded is the problem. Not sure why we have had such trouble over the years keep things closed off.
Everything ends up sheared these days.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 16:25:00 GMT -6
Chris’s explanation is better than mine, he knows how to “dig into the details “
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 21, 2023 16:42:14 GMT -6
We are here:
8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)
9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2023 16:44:04 GMT -6
I was going to say something similar...qpf fields aren't too reliable, just fun to look at when they are high. if we stay under or to the left of the mid or upper level systems, I think cold air will be sufficient to cool the lower atmosphere. I think we are looking at the potential of an impactful storm.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2023 16:46:47 GMT -6
I will say this, surprisingly , if you look at the Mo Dot cams in northwest Missouri it’s 32 and the heavy wet snow is sticking just fine even to pavement during daylight hours. The camera in Mayesville Mo it’s pouring snow and looks like several inches already along with mostly covered road
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