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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 19:14:45 GMT -6
lightningmaps.org is starting to pick up lightning strikes in the area.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 19:27:36 GMT -6
some of the higher rainfall totals shown by the hrrr are a click or two further south than recent storms - thinking areas between 44 and the MO river. But I'd go with along and south of 70 for sure with this one. Plus, it really looks like this is an overnighter, not limited to just the evening. I have to wonder if the flash flood watch may ultimately be extended to noon tomorrow.
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Post by scmhack on Aug 8, 2022 19:31:39 GMT -6
some of the higher rainfall totals shown by the hrrr are a click or two further south than recent storms - thinking areas between 44 and the MO river. But I'd go with along and south of 70 for sure with this one. Plus, it really looks like this is an overnighter, not limited to just the evening. I have to wonder if the flash flood watch may ultimately be extended to noon tomorrow. I am so tired of driving through this on my way to work. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 8, 2022 19:51:28 GMT -6
Complex situation over eastern missouri this evening and tonight. We have residual outflows draped across the metro...the arrival of the cold front should lead to boundary interaction with weak LLJ adding the cherry on top to ramp up storms rapidly as they reach the metro.
The watch may need to be expanded south a bit too. The MD issued by WPC earlier was very ominous about the setup tonight.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 19:55:42 GMT -6
Those storms around New Florence, MO...they are just going to sit there.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 8, 2022 20:01:09 GMT -6
Man if this front gets past me and blows up with rain and storms I'm going to be so disappointed. Hearing the past couple of weeks about non stop intense lightning made me so jealous. I mean we could definitely see it from afar. And sometimes could hear thunder. But for the most part it wasn't here. I know I know, I'm not begging for flooding rains. Just some good lightning is all.  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 20:09:16 GMT -6
I don't think you want a part of this storm. But to me it looks like the meramec basin is in line to get the heaviest and in that I'm including areas like Ballwin and Manchester. But really all areas along and south of 70 could see some intense and extreme rainfall, imo. Won't be long now before things get rocking.
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Post by dmbstl on Aug 8, 2022 20:26:41 GMT -6
Man if this front gets past me and blows up with rain and storms I'm going to be so disappointed. Hearing the past couple of weeks about non stop intense lightning made me so jealous. I mean we could definitely see it from afar. And sometimes could hear thunder. But for the most part it wasn't here. I know I know, I'm not begging for flooding rains. Just some good lightning is all. My basement is still wet and the damage is in the thousands so I’d prefer nothing. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 8, 2022 20:32:39 GMT -6
Again, I'm not asking for flooding rain. Just a good lightning storm.
Severe weather around these parts were pathetic again this yr. 😟
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Post by scmhack on Aug 8, 2022 20:45:59 GMT -6
I am not going to bed until the boundary passes south of me
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 8, 2022 20:46:58 GMT -6
Radar is quiet. That line an hour ago is all but gone.
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 8, 2022 20:48:57 GMT -6
That’s like 2-3” per hour rates just sitting over Osage beach. Absolutely insane.
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Post by scmhack on Aug 8, 2022 20:51:19 GMT -6
That’s like 2-3” per hour rates just sitting over Osage beach. Absolutely insane. Looks like the building is towards the boundry that the pop offs went on |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 20:54:27 GMT -6
I get that, but the last 3 or 4 events have brought flooding rains to parts of the area each time costing homeowners thousands of dollars. I still see social media posts to the effect of "i'll take this over snow". Seriously, how selfish that statement is, when people are still trying to dry out from last week, and even dealing with mold. We don't get snow of this magnitude, and repeat rainstorms that cost home owners thousands of dollars makes me grumpy about the people that hate snow. I, just like you, long for the days of just nocturnal rolling thunder and a good soaking rain through the night where I don't have to worry about foundations, flooded basements, water getting into places where it doesn't belong. But with the ring of fire pattern that we are immersed in, that's not for us this year. just seems that nature is especially volatile in recent times.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 8, 2022 20:57:20 GMT -6
That’s like 2-3” per hour rates just sitting over Osage beach. Absolutely insane. Looks like the building is towards the boundry that the pop offs went on The hrrrr had indicated that was the storm with our name on it here in the metro. But that isn't expected to arrive until overnight early morning hours. I was never too concerned about the line to the northwest. I don't even know if that line was the cold front. Still once that cold front comes through, and intersects with that storm from the ozarks, I think that's the main show, especially right through metro proper, if the timing is right. who knows. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Aug 8, 2022 21:06:23 GMT -6
Looks like NWS is backing off the flash flood threat a bit.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 23:55:36 GMT -6
The 00Z models have come in way drier and unorganized now with barely getting anyone near the metro.
Which is great news
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 9, 2022 0:25:54 GMT -6
I have some rain moving in soon. But not sure if it will last long or not.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 9, 2022 1:22:07 GMT -6
Heavy rain here now! Some thunder and lightning too.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 405 
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Post by lunchladyd on Aug 9, 2022 6:15:09 GMT -6
Heavy rain here now! Some thunder and lightning too. My rain gauge says 3 1/2 inches. |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 9, 2022 6:17:37 GMT -6
2.02 in st.peters. now I am ready for a long dry spell as every time it rains now the basement seeps from being over saturated. Id say 20.2 inches over 2 weeks.is enough for a while
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Post by REB on Aug 9, 2022 7:01:42 GMT -6
.45" total. .12" since midnight
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Aug 9, 2022 9:02:02 GMT -6
According to THE Davis on the roof in North St. Pete, 1.3" of rain fell last night.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 9, 2022 9:11:17 GMT -6
The radar is a bit deceptive with this rain in northern Ste. Gen county. It is absolutely dumping.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 9, 2022 10:17:19 GMT -6
.45" total. .12" since midnight East side wins! Over here on the west end, .003 storm total. |
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Post by mchafin on Aug 9, 2022 11:51:28 GMT -6
Just seen an article that the Farmer's Almanac is colder and snowier here. It didn't have a map but it sounded like this area was involved.🤔🤔🤞🤞🤞 I saw a map on a page discussing this upcoming winter and how it will impact the Minnesota area -- we are smack dab in the middle of a "Cold, Snowy" area vs. being on the dividing line. If the map is legit, which it appears to be...we MAY be in for a fun winter, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. Link for reference |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 9, 2022 11:55:27 GMT -6
Well, this event did not play out like it could have... and was...in general...not as bad as the potential would have supported. All good things.
So, was the build-up before the event warranted? I think so. Considering the saturated soil, the extreme vulnerability of the areas at risk and what we have all been through the past couple of weeks... I have no trouble with how this forecast was handled. Unlike previous events, the large scale features were a little out of alignment and the forcing was weaker. That is what ended up having the biggest impact on how the event played out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 9, 2022 12:07:11 GMT -6
The watch was warranted, IMO...given the extremely moist airmass and potential for slow/stationary storm motions. The outflow/gravity wave produced by the storm cluster near LOTO gave the storms a nudge eastward and kept them progressive vs. stalling out. That's not something you can really predict until it's occurring.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 9, 2022 16:44:52 GMT -6
agree. the watch was warranted.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 9, 2022 19:40:08 GMT -6
Yes- it was a watch
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