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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 21:19:01 GMT -6
And the beat goes on…
00z rgem still is further south with lots of ice for the metro and lots of snow for the northern counties.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 21:19:48 GMT -6
it sure would be nice if the rgem was right.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2022 21:36:35 GMT -6
The rgem ptype map is totally bogus and doesn't mesh with the soundings.
I guess maybe it finds the dgz to small or to high.
But the rgem has as lot of sleet up 44/64 while the column is completely below freezing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2022 21:40:00 GMT -6
The rgem has about 1.0" QPF for 44/64 while temps are in the low to upper 20s.
Probably a lot of sleet, graupel, snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 22:12:30 GMT -6
00z gfs holds steady tracking the low directly over STL
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 22:15:57 GMT -6
Gem still way south and way colder, hammers the whole metro area with ice and snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 22:17:17 GMT -6
00z gfs ensembles strongly support the operational.
On to the Ukmet to see if either camp breaks tonight.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 22:33:49 GMT -6
Looks like the ukmet is a bit north, but still well south of the gfs.
Kind of riding the middle ground with the euro.
Would be really nice from St. Charles on north.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2022 22:37:49 GMT -6
Looks like decent hit for norther 2/3 of metro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 22:43:20 GMT -6
The crazy thing is not a single GEFS member gives support to the further south camp. They are all almost mirror images of each other. That’s some consistency.  |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 232 
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Post by steve on Feb 14, 2022 22:49:55 GMT -6
Looks like the ukmet is a bit north, but still well south of the gfs. Kind of riding the middle ground with the euro. Would be really nice from St. Charles on north. I’m not seeing any shift north. Looks great for the metro. Not a fun forecast! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2022 23:08:35 GMT -6
Looks like the ukmet is a bit north, but still well south of the gfs. Kind of riding the middle ground with the euro. Would be really nice from St. Charles on north. I’m not seeing any shift north. Looks great for the metro. Not a fun forecast! I said a bit, meaning slight. You can see it at hour 60 where the low is a touch stronger and at the Arkansas/Missouri border whereas on the 12z run the low was south of the border. It could be noise or it could be the start of a trend north. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2022 23:28:13 GMT -6
Canadian ensembles continue to creep north with each run. Heaviest snowfall on this run is roughly central Mo to the south side of Chicago
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2022 23:57:15 GMT -6
With the way the GFS sand GEFS look I would be shocked if they go way back south at this point, you’ve basically seen the other models slowly trend towards the GFS. I still think it’s probably two amped up but that might just be me wish casting it down 50-75 miles.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 0:13:37 GMT -6
Euro is about the same maybe a little more north but it doesn’t really produce much snow or ice. Maybe 1-2” for northern metro at best . Definitely looks like the GFS may win the war .
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 15, 2022 0:17:50 GMT -6
I'm glad I didn't get too invested in the system this week. I've checked in a couple of times the last few days but just been out of touch really. Not even sure why I'm telling you all this, lol.
Looks like it's still nothing super major. Rain with a bit of sleet/freezing rain and/or snow at the tail.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 0:22:28 GMT -6
That’s probably about right
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2022 4:43:49 GMT -6
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
Several key messages with the storm Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead
of the front there will be to potential for locally heavy rainfall
during the period as widespread 1-2+ inches of rain is likely with
the heaviest amounts along I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois.
Then a front will move from northwest to southeast across the area
late Wednesday night causing the rain to change to freezing
rain/sleet and then to accumulating snow. There remains a great
deal of uncertainty in the exact track of the storm, but the most
likely location to see accumulating wintry precipitation continues
to be central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois.
Latest runs of the GFS, ECWMF, and the NAM as well as the GEFS and
EPS all are showing that an upper low will drop into the southwest
CONUS by Wednesday morning at the same time that a northern stream
shortwave trough will drop into the northern High Plains. The NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF are all are showing a lead shortwave ejecting out of
the southwestern low and phasing with the northern stream trough
which ultimately causes the surface low to deepen as it moves
through the Midwest on Thursday. The main difference is the ECMWF
and NAM have a slightly farther south track than the GFS. The
latest WPC Cluster Analysis is showing more of the ensemble members
favoring the southern track.
Still expect the precipitation to start off as all rain over the
northwestern half of the CWA on Wednesday morning as increased mid
level ascent and low level moisture transport increases across the
area. The rain will spread southeast through the day and there may
be some locally heavy rainfall ahead of the front on Wednesday night
as PWATS increase over 1". In addition, there will be a chance of
thunderstorms over much of the southern half of the area as MUCAPES
will be up to 500 J/kg.
Then the focus switches to winter weather part of the system.
A combination of strong mid level frontogenesis and a coupled jet
will set up continued sustained lift Wednesday night into Thursday.
Forecast soundings and plumes still favor rain changed to narrow
band of mixed precipitation before changing to snow ahead of the low
that will quickly move through the area on Thursday. The latest
model runs are now showing a deformation zone on Thursday which will
keep snow going into the afternoon. The greatest uncertainty will
continue to be with the snow amounts as ice/sleet amounts will take
away from the snow on Wednesday night and the track of the system is
still not clear. This is causing the wide range in the possible
snow over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
It still looks like Friday into Monday will be dry as a low amplitude
ridge and large surface high moves across the area. Temperatures on
Thursday will be much colder behind the front, but will moderate
over the weekend depending initially on how much snow cover there is.
Britt
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2022 4:57:01 GMT -6
Starting to think this will be more of a chemical application(s) type system for myself. Especially clients that have a 2” trigger before putting a plow down on the ground.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2022 6:10:29 GMT -6
Bailing on my earlier thoughts of a southward placement of track of surface low. Attm, i see potential for advisory level event in warren and lincoln counties and points nw of that. Only light wintry potential for metro proper and it will be confined as tail end stuff. Lots of unhappiness on this board as we experience the st louis classic.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2022 6:35:10 GMT -6
I don't think too many people will be unhappy after getting 6+" a week ago.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2022 7:06:26 GMT -6
No my hopes for the southern solution are pretty much over. 6 z RGEM shifted north quite a bit , takes the majority of the accumulation snow out of the metro.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2022 7:16:06 GMT -6
I think we may see a flood watch personally in the metro. That is a boatload pf rain coming. Definately signs of the beginning of the spring rainy season.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2022 7:58:12 GMT -6
Bring on the heavy rain - let's get all this crap washed off of the cars and roads.
There are some pretty strong signals starting to build for a potentially major overunning event mid to late next week. Taking into consideration the models' bias of not pushing the shallow arctic air south fast enough makes this a potentially interesting setup that bears watching.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2022 8:23:59 GMT -6
It was small, but there was a shift south in the 06z GEFS A few members bring the heavy snow into the metro that run  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 8:32:47 GMT -6
Yeah. Euro has a pretty wicked ice storm here later next week
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 15, 2022 8:39:44 GMT -6
So we are around 48 hours out and really still don't have a completely unified consensus from the models on what to expect except the heaviest snow band should be north and west of the metro. But the questions are by how much and where is that messy transition zone going to be located. Always fascinating to me how one storm can be modeled so well like the groundhog day storm was yet, others can be a complete mess like this one. I see why meteorologists age so rapidly  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2022 8:42:35 GMT -6
12z nam and FV3 are both amped and north.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2022 8:52:25 GMT -6
No matter what happens the rest of the winter, and no it hasn't been great, but at least the words "groundhog day storm" will no longer live in infamy. And will be something we can remember fondly. Lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2022 9:10:19 GMT -6
RGEM will not budge lol
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