Chris's Corner - Ground Hog's Day Storm 2.0 - Winter Reboot?

[Frivolousz21]

Where is ADJ?

[landscaper]

That is crazy! That hasn’t happened very often over the last 15 plus years I’ve been model worshiping

[grizzlebeard]

Help an old man out here:

1. Is there a concern that convection south of us will rob us of energy and qpf?

2. When will this hit the coast or get fully sampled?

3. What is the reliability window for the major models?

Thanks

[Chris Higgins]

I thought the fantasy GFS run earlier was something to behold... but now the Canadian has generated a similar and yet more extreme solution. To see two solutions like this has me picking my jaw up off the floor. I need to collect my thoughts to make a sound forecast that is not swayed by the extreme.

[cardsnweather]

Jan 29, 2022 23:08:20 GMT -6 Frivolousz21 said:

Through hour 84.

The gem already has a1.4" QPF almost all rain.

By end still 20" of snow at 10/1 ratios

I had it closer to .75-.9 rain. 

[cardsnweather]

Jan 29, 2022 23:14:35 GMT -6 Chris Higgins said:

I thought the fantasy GFS run earlier was something to behold... but now the Canadian has generated a similar and yet more extreme solution. To see two solutions like this has me picking my jaw up off the floor. I need to collect my thoughts to make a sound forecast that is not swayed by the extreme.

The UK should bring everyone back from DEFCON 1 to about DEFCON 3. 

[landscaper]

I agree Chris to have the GEFS mean nearly bullseye 12” and operational GFS and Gem all well over that , you have think there is definitely a chance of something really big. The Euro and EPS look very solid as well along with a nearly identical NAM and RGEM at 84 thumping snow with a perfect set to remain.

[landscaper]

If the Euro goes suppression city than we need to really consider that but right now it looks like it’s way on its own.

[cardsnweather]

Jan 29, 2022 23:23:57 GMT -6 landscaper said:

If the Euro goes suppression city than we need to really consider that but right now it looks like it’s way on its own.

Oh, I agree. But for our own sanity, it’s nice to remember that this isn’t a done deal by any means. 

[landscaper]

Yes I agree as well I just went back and looked at the euro at 12z and it was substantially more suppressed and less qpf than the GFS /GEM/Icon . Still lots of potential outcomes I guess maybe by tomorrow night things will be more clear. I would love to see the euro jump back on the secondary low juiced up train.

[Snowstorm920]

Canadian ensembles have a MEAN of almost a foot of snow in the metro using 10:1

[Snowman99]

Here we go. All downhill from here. Euro south with main wave. Unreal.

[Snowstorm920]

Ya, ugh

Let’s see what the ensembles have to say

[BRTNWXMAN]

Man, oh man...some of these model runs are absolutely stunning to look at. This has huge potential written all over it...long duration event extraordinaire.

[BRTNWXMAN]

LOL

[Chris Higgins]

Jan 30, 2022 0:26:18 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

Here we go. All downhill from here. Euro south with main wave. Unreal.

Enough to slow the march to heralding a repeat of 1982 lol.

But operational Euro is well within the margins of the ensembles.

No changes needed to any messenging right now. Decisions on fine tuning of types and initial forecast amounts will need to be made tomorrow.

I do have real fears about freezing rain and sleet vs snow. But the combined effects of all will make for a major impact event... no matter what the breakdown of each.

[Frivolousz21]

So rain to

Light wintry

To light snow.


Maybe a couple dusting?

[giarC71]

Jan 30, 2022 1:07:57 GMT -6 Frivolousz21 said:

So rain to

Light wintry

To light snow.


Maybe a couple dusting?

Basically Armageddon... From all of the posts today. If I see a 1-3 or 2-4 I want my money back. I think someone will come out with a 3-6 first forecast with rain to mix an depending on change to snow could see higher amounts. Still have 3 days plus to adjust. Winter storm Watch probably goes into effect on Monday if things continue course.

[RyanD]

QPF wise the EURO looks great in my area south of STL but not sure how much of that is frozen.

[BRTNWXMAN]

From what I'm seeing, this is consistently being modeled as a 3 wave system. The first wave will feature a lot of liquid rain or ZR and some sleet changing to snow by Wednesday morning as the deeper cold moves in behind the first wave. This is mostly driven by WAA as well as RER jet dynamics and increasing low/mid-level Fgen towards the tail end. The next wave quickly approaches during the day Wednesday which should be snow/sleet and again driven by WAA and Fgen. Between these first two waves, areas along and N of 44/70 could pick up the bulk of the snowfall here. The last piece of energy comes through as the primary shortwave ejects out and rides the strong baroclinic zone now in place. There is some disagreement here with how much suppression takes place, but looking at the upper levels, the jet dynamics are HUGE and look to be nearly ideal in placement. It's hard to see that missing much of the region. This is the wave that will jackpot the southern sections from the looks of it. IF these waves all line up across the same region, there could be huge totals of 15"+ like some of the models are showing. But that may not happen...the boundary should slowly sag S with each wave. Either way, this is looking like a very significant and highly impactful storm for the entire region...and that's really the message that needs to be made right now. Is a 1982 redeux possible? Maybe. But remember, that event was due to a persistent region of thundersnow/CSI and that's not something that can be modeled well at this range. But there's definitely potential for mesobanding with such strong jet dynamics and Fgen response through much of this event.

This is overall probably the most impressive looking storm I've seen since following these model outputs. It's up there with the big boys like 2006, 2011 and possibly even 1982 if we're lucky. But remember, snowfall and ice like what is being modeled is dangerous in those amounts...especially with deep cold moving in. People tell stories of having to use lifted 4x4s and snowmobiles to transport sick or dying people to the hospital iin 1982. Crippling storms are no joke!

[BRTNWXMAN]

Some of you guys crack me up...

[Snowstorm920]

00z EPS mean snowfall looks the best it has for the area

Just glancing at the individual members, there's a mix match of huge runs and more subdued runs like the operational

Not called model surfing for nothing!

[weatherj]

It seems to me that it's logical to assume a narrow strip will probably get in on all 3 waves in some form or fashion. Hopefully the metro can get in on the northern edge of decent snowfall/rates with wave 3 since it looks to be the most S of all.

[Snowstorm920]

EPS chance of 6" or more of snow using 10:1

[BRTNWXMAN]

The EC seems awfully aggressive with crashing the surface ridge in and pushing the boundary way south behind the wave that comes through Wednesday. With the mid-level flow remaining out of the SW ahead of the primary wave, it's hard to think it could crash S like that. It also strongly shears the primary bundle of energy as it ejects, which looks a bit questionable as well.

Still some details to sort out for sure.

[Frivolousz21]

The 4 globals in just 4.5 days.


Crazy variances


Clifk to animate.  Super bogus

[BRTNWXMAN]

Friv, if you take the UKMET out of the picture those all look very supportive for a big event here. You can't expect them to all look the same 3-4 days out. The combination of strong baroclinity, deep moisture supply, and steady stream of energy and jet dynamics on top is a ripe combo.

[Chris Higgins]

Jan 30, 2022 2:29:08 GMT -6 BRTNWXMAN said:

Friv, if you take the UKMET out of the picture those all look very supportive for a big event here. You can't expect them to all look the same 3-4 days out. The combination of strong baroclinity, deep moisture supply, and steady stream of energy and jet dynamics on top is a ripe combo.

It's actually amazing they all are so close with their outcomes when you consider the variations.

I mean look at these three ensemble snowfall outputs from 00z....
There is very little variation here in the axis of max snowfall. The real question will become how much of this falls as sleet (a big concern). I agree with BRTN, the HP seems to overwhelm the final wave too quickly in the UK and Euro. I've been concerned all along that the final wave would have a much more profound and classic look to it... including a healthy deformation zone.






I think there is a better than 50/50 shot that most of the regions sees 4"+ of snow with a nasty mix of sleet and freezing rain on the front end. Are the bigger totals (10+) possible.... absolutely. Fortunately, we don't need to make that call yet. Instead, advertise a high impact winter storm with rain, significant icing and topped by moderate to heavy snow...followed by bitter cold. Although the models have backed off the extremeness of the cold... in part to potential low clouds I think.

[BRTNWXMAN]

These models have come a long way...there's no doubt. Sure, they wobble around and drive us nuts at times. But it is absolutely incredible that we can see these things coming a week or more out...sometimes two. I started sounding the alarm on this one days ago because of pattern recognition. Sometimes you have to just put the fine details in the back pocket and utilize some good old fashioned meteorology to figure this stuff out. It's what makes this fascinating and challenging to me. Allowing your emotions to sway with every swing and twist and turn in the modeling will literally drive you crazy...ask me how I know!

[Frivolousz21]

I'm not a big freezing rain guy.


But one noticable thing about the surface cold front that pushes well South of us as wave #1 moves through.


As cyclogenesis takes place to our SW.
Winds behind the front get really organized and stronger.


Blowing out of a NEARLY DUE NORTH POSITION.

THIS HELPS CRANK THE COLD DIRECTLY DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.