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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 1:32:35 GMT -6
That's a thing of beauty, 920...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2022 2:10:30 GMT -6
I thought we had that last year?? I think we had close to 10" KSTL only got 5.7" Yeah ridiculous  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 2:32:05 GMT -6
SLRs were definitely trash during that snowfall last February...that was a very fine, grainy snow that just didn't pile up. It had a density that I've never experienced...it was like the heavy cement without the moisture...and squeeky as all get out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 2:36:00 GMT -6
Have to say the setup next week is looking more impressive all the time. Models are showing a 40-50kt LLJ slamming into a brick wall of arctic airmass with a strong frontogenetic response.
This may be one for the record books.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 29, 2022 3:00:53 GMT -6
I somehow managed 9 inches of snow from that February of '21 storm over here. I'm guessing I was in more of a prime position given the SLP track etc.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 29, 2022 3:41:17 GMT -6
I really need to retire from snow removal.....the anxiety on these type systems is a real thing. I had already planned to cut way back next season by at least 2/3rds but I’m just about ready to sell the snow equipment altogether. Can’t find shovelers anymore even paying $25-$30/hr cash money. Have to worry about the home front and losing electricity with my wife and one daughter that still lives at home and at the same time as my clients and servicing them in a proper timeframe which is hard to do on long duration storms like these. The money is great at the end of the day but I’m not so sure it’s worth what it does to me on the approach to these things anymore. I guess 30+ years of this is taking its toll on me.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 29, 2022 5:37:31 GMT -6
Omg!!! The 06z Gfs! Another great run!
Edit- there is a snow minimum over STL METRO. Right up 44. But not going to worry about that. Just yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 6:24:45 GMT -6
I really need to retire from snow removal.....the anxiety on these type systems is a real thing. I had already planned to cut way back next season by at least 2/3rds but I’m just about ready to sell the snow equipment altogether. Can’t find shovelers anymore even paying $25-$30/hr cash money. Have to worry about the home front and losing electricity with my wife and one daughter that still lives at home and at the same time as my clients and servicing them in a proper timeframe which is hard to do on long duration storms like these. The money is great at the end of the day but I’m not so sure it’s worth what it does to me on the approach to these things anymore. I guess 30+ years of this is taking its toll on me. Like Kenny Rodgers said...know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. I definitely feel for the contractors like you. Some people just don't understand the toll that kind of stress has on one's self and others around them. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 6:28:49 GMT -6
Cape Cod is about to get CRUSHED!!!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 7:30:54 GMT -6
Cape Cod is about to get CRUSHED!!! Yes. Some serious banding taking place. |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 29, 2022 7:32:51 GMT -6
I really need to retire from snow removal.....the anxiety on these type systems is a real thing. I had already planned to cut way back next season by at least 2/3rds but I’m just about ready to sell the snow equipment altogether. Can’t find shovelers anymore even paying $25-$30/hr cash money. Have to worry about the home front and losing electricity with my wife and one daughter that still lives at home and at the same time as my clients and servicing them in a proper timeframe which is hard to do on long duration storms like these. The money is great at the end of the day but I’m not so sure it’s worth what it does to me on the approach to these things anymore. I guess 30+ years of this is taking its toll on me. I'm with you on that. I don't own a company but drive a plow truck and after 22 years I'm thinking this will be my last year. Need a career change. I never sleep before a storm and it's getting stressful for me. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 29, 2022 7:33:38 GMT -6
Omg!!! The 06z Gfs! Another great run! Edit- there is a snow minimum over STL METRO. Right up 44. But not going to worry about that. Just yet. It struggles to get completely organized. Lot of ice and less snow. Give me a mix of the 00z runs and lock em in! |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 29, 2022 7:52:30 GMT -6
Just checking in this morning sounds like going to be more a ice storm than snow storm. Was hoping big snow to take grand kids sledding
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 29, 2022 8:09:18 GMT -6
Well you can sled lol, just might be like chevy chase, later dudes lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 8:15:10 GMT -6
The GFS is trying to hang up the low-level boundary across the region and looks awfully icy to me...either ZR or PL. The other globals are substantially colder. The GEFS is pumping out 0.75"+ frozen QPF and 8"+ snowfall totals across much of the region...but it looks like sleet contamination would eat into that. The EPS supports the colder solutions, with mostly snow for the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 29, 2022 8:16:18 GMT -6
Yeah, this could end up being one of those epic sledding storms with ice and then snow on top. This is looking like a flatter, less amplified version of 2006, IMO.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 29, 2022 8:18:05 GMT -6
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 29, 2022 8:18:46 GMT -6
Thanks BRTN for updating what you are seeing. Hope we get the big snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2022 8:36:41 GMT -6
6z euro ensembles generally look very favorable for STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 9:08:31 GMT -6
We are continuing to closely monitor the potential for a significant
winter storm impacting a broad region centered through the middle MS
Valley. While there are differences in some important details, the
deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good agreement conceptually
with the overall synoptic pattern. Rain is expected to develop
along and ahead of the advancing cold front on Tuesday. The
northeast-southwest oriented front will then settle south of the
CWA on Tuesday night stretching from the Ohio Valley into the
lower MS Valley. A series of weak short waves within the
southwest flow aloft, pronounced isentropic lift, strong low-mid
level frontogenesis, and ULJ dynamics will contribute to a broad
and extended period of "overrunning" precipitation back within the
post-frontal cold air across the region. It is likely that the
lift and intensity of the precipitation will be modulated at times
in response to passing disturbances aloft. A this time it appears
that both significant accumulating snow and significant
accumulating mixed wintry precipitation (sleet and freezing rain)
are likely beginning late Tuesday. The NBM exceedance guidance has
rather high probabilities for impactful accumulations of both.
However where these snow and mixed wintry precipitation zones
set-up and the transition of ptypes with time is probably the
biggest uncertainty. In all the latest guidance, the progged
location of the baroclinic zone is further north that forecast 24
hours ago, and there are important differences in the position and
intensity of the cold air with each new model cycle. Currently
the greatest variability is in roughly a 100 mile wide corridor
centered near I-44. Predictability of resolving this kind of
detail in the thermal structure, depth and intensity of cold air
is low at these time ranges.
Key Points and Takeaways:
1) Event Occurrence - We have relatively high confidence that a
winter storm will impact a large portion of the middle MS Valley in
the Tuesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
2) Impacts - Barring no significant changes to the large scale
pattern, significant impacts, especially travel, appear
increasingly likely.
3) Ptype - Confidence is low on details in ptype and the transition
at any given location. That said we have higher confidence that
northeast MO and west central IL should be predominately snow.
4) Longevity/Timing - Moderately high confidence the bulk of the
storm will be in the Wednesday-Wednesday night time frame, and less
confidence how long it will last into Thursday. The longevity into
Thursday will depend on the speed and strength of the eastward
migrating upper trof.
5) Resolving the details - We will continue to see inherent
variability in some important details with each new model cycle. It
probably won`t be until we get to T-48h or less than we will be able
to truly refine ptypes in some areas and the transition, especially
the southern 2/3rds of the CWA.
Glass
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:15:18 GMT -6
My early impacts map for this Winter Storm. Pretty broad ideas, and generic amounts due to time from storm, but a nice early assessment.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:24:56 GMT -6
NAM's colder February 2nd. This great news for Winter Weather Fans, also the 1st is looking less torchy then yesterday as well. Ground won't warm as much as expected if the trends hold.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:26:34 GMT -6
ICON looks like a crusher on the 3rd, and ICY on the 2nd.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 29, 2022 9:28:15 GMT -6
Icon is trending much colder. This is starting to look like the real deal. Major ice for someone in the area.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2022 9:29:09 GMT -6
Yes I noticed this weekend was originally forecast to be warmer than it is going to be . Early next week is a little cooler as well. If it’s raining Tuesday that will keep temps down . But yes your correct on the NAM being one of the coldest. It’s always good when we get into 84 hours or less, then you pick up the NAM and RGEM for model watching.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:29:19 GMT -6
I'd say a Bread, Milk, Eggs, and Bacon Watch will be needed Sunday into Thursday of next week along with a go to Schnucks Watch in general as well.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:32:37 GMT -6
I've already been letting my regular checkout customers know since yesterday as well about the potential. The message gets a bit stronger for today's shift, but not doom and gloom. The risk is there though and growing by the run as mentioned previously.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 29, 2022 9:35:35 GMT -6
lol we all gonna die
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 29, 2022 9:38:51 GMT -6
Looks like an arctic frontal boundary passage on the evening of the 1st by the looks of things, look for rapidly fall temps Tuesday evening.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 29, 2022 9:40:14 GMT -6
If we are going to get major ice, then it may as well be plain old rain. Freezing rain is dangerous. I'm probably going to jinx it though because I'm getting new tires on the truck, and going out to cut firewood today.
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