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Post by maddogchief on Jan 10, 2021 9:35:57 GMT -6
February is looking rather unsettled
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2021 9:38:48 GMT -6
SW Dallas is getting absolutely pummelled.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 10:17:00 GMT -6
12z Icon looks decent for snow for southern Missouri in about a week.
12z gfs is suppressed, so would be waiting longer.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2021 10:22:18 GMT -6
12z Icon looks decent for snow for southern Missouri in about a week. 12z gfs is suppressed, so would be waiting longer. Looks perfect for now in my opinion. You gotta keep these south until about 4/5 days out most of the time. Something to at least watch for now. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 10:24:26 GMT -6
12z Icon looks decent for snow for southern Missouri in about a week. 12z gfs is suppressed, so would be waiting longer. Looks perfect for now in my opinion. You gotta keep these south until about 4/5 days out most of the time. Something to at least watch for now. It looks like an EC storm to me. Nothing to wrap it up for us, so I disagree pretty strongly. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2021 10:31:11 GMT -6
Arkansas to DC baby. Book it. High and dry here..95% chance.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 10:33:15 GMT -6
Now, the cold air will be around, so something spinning up in the 10 day period could happen.
But, I’m sick of doing the 10 day thing. It’s eating up a huge chunk of winter, and February is a hard time to keep snow on the ground.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 10, 2021 10:34:56 GMT -6
Arkansas to DC baby. Book it. High and dry here..95% chance. I'm willing to bet on Chicago and northwestward. I'm really pulling for wsc and N of St. Louis too. They've been hosed about as bad. |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 10, 2021 10:36:35 GMT -6
JB on weatherbell Saturday summary has some interesting comments. Thinks weather between 1/15/2021 and 2/15/2021 is going to be cold and snowy across the county
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2021 10:38:41 GMT -6
Looks perfect for now in my opinion. You gotta keep these south until about 4/5 days out most of the time. Something to at least watch for now. It looks like an EC storm to me. Nothing to wrap it up for us, so I disagree pretty strongly. I'm not sure about an EC storm. Energy looks to get sheared out as it goes negative and heads east. Of course at this range no possibility is off the table |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2021 10:54:11 GMT -6
JB..that dude has lost it, in more ways than one
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2021 11:00:04 GMT -6
There's really not much that would suppress the storm towards next weekend...no overwhelmingly strong surface ridge or crushing confluence over the top. And the airmass proceeding it is polar in nature...not arctic. I think that system may end up being a player for us. But there's likely to be some wild swings in the modeling with a major large-scale pattern change underway.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2021 11:16:12 GMT -6
The pattern the GFS shows towards D10 looks very supportive of a major overrunning event across the central US...way out there...but it's supported by ensemble forecasts that show the longwave pattern retrograding allowing energy to dig into the Great Basin with cold air drainage out ahead of it.
I think the 2nd half of this month into February holds strong potential.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2021 11:17:46 GMT -6
South side of Dallas-Fort Worth getting pounded right now. KFWS has been reporting heavy snow the past 2 hours. And we can't even get snow showers around here  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2021 11:30:10 GMT -6
It looks like after next weekend it will come down to the right timing. The right amount of cold and the southern track getting involved. There’s some decent modeling but also a ton of swing and misses in the long range. We’re definitely over due .
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2021 11:46:00 GMT -6
I know the snow maps in the long range are not likely to happen.....but, if you live near De Soto or east toward Marissa area, we have a new T-Shirt candidate. 1/10/21 12z snow map. Book it In the middle of re-doing our kitchen. Crown moulding is kicking my arse. I've cut and coped and mitered several times and it is still too short and doesn't fit. My hats off to trim technicians. I isn't one. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2021 11:52:13 GMT -6
After tonight, snow will have accumulated in every state except FL, as LA is expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow. That's pretty impressive actually; although I'd like to see an anomaly graph. I think it's a given that we would see a depiction of below normal snow in the mid ms valley, but elsewhere I'm not sure. I'm pretty impressed with the extent of accumulating snow across the conus. Wasn't 1993 the year where we had two major snowstorms in February? February snowstorms are pretty fickle if you ask me, but we had two 8+ inch events that month. Steady as she goes.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2021 11:59:44 GMT -6
I remember some really deep snow when I was very young. Had to be 93 as I would have been 4. It’s right there on the edge of my memory but I do remember it being deep and I saw pics when I was older which verified that.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2021 12:26:10 GMT -6
Haha, what the hell is the euro doing on Friday? That's a new twist.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2021 12:36:56 GMT -6
It’s on its own and conceptually doesn’t really make any sense
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 12:41:08 GMT -6
Haha, what the hell is the euro doing on Friday? That's a new twist. I think I’ll be done with weather for a bit if I get screwed that badly on my birthday lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2021 12:43:53 GMT -6
Haha, what the hell is the euro doing on Friday? That's a new twist. Who cares just lock it in lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2021 13:07:58 GMT -6
The euro has been off its rocker for a couple years now. It doesn’t even have a system the end of the weekend like every single other model does.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2021 13:11:09 GMT -6
I'm not sure I have any faith in that EC solution...but I'm fairly certain that we're not going to be anywhere near 40* on Friday or Saturday. Forecast temps are gonna have to be slashed for next weekend...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2021 13:12:10 GMT -6
Yeah, it's been pretty awful...I can remember several instances this season where it caved to the lowly GFS.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 10, 2021 13:25:01 GMT -6
What does EURO show?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 13:37:15 GMT -6
Brings the northern stream energy much further south than the other models Thursday/Friday even giving the metro some snow. It’s an outlier to say the least |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2021 15:00:55 GMT -6
12z euro control agrees with the operational run, so that’s interesting
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2021 15:34:00 GMT -6
At the very least Friday and Saturday are looking windy with scattered snow showers as a strong low bombs out near the Great Lakes.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2021 16:06:16 GMT -6
Might see a pop of 60s Thursday if ample sun is available. Nothing like a small taste Spring to get us in the mood.  |
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