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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 20:05:47 GMT -6
It’s not so much that it’s further west- it’s more amplified... give a little more nudge and it may be enough something like this? i.imgur.com/YJySnQs.png |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 24, 2020 20:35:16 GMT -6
Something like that
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 24, 2020 21:08:12 GMT -6
Confirmed tornado with debris sig headed into dallas...
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 21:59:13 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:01:52 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is about to make the big shift north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 22:03:20 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is about to make the big shift north. Here she comes |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 24, 2020 22:07:42 GMT -6
That weird, sheared out ripple of vorticity that the GFS has finally resolved in a somewhat normal manner was obviously an error... for you model-heads, any idea what caused that? I see what you're talking about. I wonder if that is a post-processing artifact unique to COD? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:07:57 GMT -6
unfortunately its phase is a bit messy and the main circulation takes a while to get going.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:09:32 GMT -6
That weird, sheared out ripple of vorticity that the GFS has finally resolved in a somewhat normal manner was obviously an error... for you model-heads, any idea what caused that? I see what you're talking about. I wonder if that is a post-processing artifact unique to COD? It kind of shows up on Pivotal too... Just looks like those earlier GFS refused to snap off that vort max, and instead sheared it out over about 1200 miles. Good ol gfs. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 24, 2020 22:11:10 GMT -6
Fairly strong rotation just SE of Ft. Smith AR
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:17:21 GMT -6
god that is one UGLY surface reflection. I think I'm counting... 3 centers?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 22:33:05 GMT -6
GEM still east.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 24, 2020 22:44:25 GMT -6
One thing is certain regarding snow next week, but not certain for us of course lol. Lake Effect snow is really going to kick into gear next week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 23:08:59 GMT -6
00z ukmet has a nice track.
Need it to strengthen a bit more to really pull the cold air in, but a solid run.
Nice
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 24, 2020 23:33:11 GMT -6
I see what you're talking about. I wonder if that is a post-processing artifact unique to COD? It kind of shows up on Pivotal too... Just looks like those earlier GFS refused to snap off that vort max, and instead sheared it out over about 1200 miles. Good ol gfs. I don't really have a good explanation, but the vorticity is generated from a ridiculously tight deformation zone in the 500mb flow. The model is calculating (unrealistically as you point out) some really sharp direction changes in the wind over very short distances. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2020 0:26:16 GMT -6
big ol' whiff from the Euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2020 0:35:47 GMT -6
gonna be a nice storm in the Ohio valley and Great Lakes. Might be chilly here for a couple days though.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 25, 2020 0:38:50 GMT -6
send us some nice pics, WSC
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 25, 2020 1:54:49 GMT -6
My son is safely home from school... and he brought me the best beer ever!  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2020 2:56:47 GMT -6
Oh man, I'd love to try that. Looks really good.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 25, 2020 3:10:36 GMT -6
I'm sticking with the forecast for periods of rain for Sunday.
I have my doubts about how fast the cold (snow producing cold) air will wrap into the core of the weekend system...so I think the bulk of the precipitation in these parts will fall as light rain.
That said, with the upper low forecast by various models to cut-off near or just south of STL... that puts us in a favorable position for some light snow and/or flurries Monday.
I'm not going to get all wrapped around the axel for how to flush out the details or the timing of any transition...just saying light rain Sunday... and colder Monday with light snow or flurries. We can sort the rest out later.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 25, 2020 7:20:20 GMT -6
That beer can was great! Glad he’s home and hope you plan some time off to enjoy him! Happy Thanksgiving to you!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 25, 2020 7:20:39 GMT -6
My son is safely home from school... and he brought me the best beer ever! Great marketing.... Id try it on the name alone |
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Post by birddog on Nov 25, 2020 9:06:31 GMT -6
3 tenths yesterday and 1.21" overnight.
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Post by REB on Nov 25, 2020 9:48:33 GMT -6
1.21" for this last round.
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Post by REB on Nov 25, 2020 10:02:38 GMT -6
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. Please stay safe and let the preparations begin!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 25, 2020 10:07:45 GMT -6
12z gfs is trash for late weekend and early next week.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 25, 2020 10:16:56 GMT -6
Honestly Im not expecting any appreciable snow this entire winter season. To me I strongly believe warm over all. I am thinking a 3 to 5 inch season total tops for snowfall. I just dont see how a la nina this strong will allow us to see anything appreciable. I for one with the virus the way it is would rather have a non winter in a way.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 25, 2020 10:19:44 GMT -6
According to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete we received .95" last night. He still wants more knowing that winters here have been mild and dry. Maybe he is hoarding?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 25, 2020 10:21:01 GMT -6
Well that was a fun idea to entertain for a couple days I suppose.
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