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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 7:00:05 GMT -6
What's the timing on these storms today? I have to pick up the wife at 830 this evening at Lambert. Looking like 3-5pm near the river. Unless the front slows up, you should be in the clear after 7pm. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 28, 2020 7:00:39 GMT -6
Enhanced risk for metro
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 7:05:01 GMT -6
What's the timing on these storms today? I have to pick up the wife at 830 this evening at Lambert. Looking like 3-5pm near the river. Unless the front slows up, you should be in the clear after 7pm. Thank you. If you chase today, chase the warm front in central IL. The stuff in IA may get washed out by the stuff in southwestern MO. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 7:08:36 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 7:18:33 GMT -6
Looking like 3-5pm near the river. Unless the front slows up, you should be in the clear after 7pm. Thank you. If you chase today, chase the warm front in central IL. The stuff in IA may get washed out by the stuff in southwestern MO. Yeah, it seems like overnight models have backed off the juice a bit in IA and don't lift the warm front as quickly north due to morning clouds and precip. It looks like there could be a window early this afternoon where surface heating boosts instability across the region. If I decide fo chase, I'll probably set up near 3LF or SPI. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 28, 2020 7:28:00 GMT -6
The showers and storms currently out west could certainly hinder instability and prevent widespread severe. I think that’s how it will play out.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 28, 2020 8:07:25 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Mar 28, 2020 8:44:46 GMT -6
The hail pics from last night around mid mo are crazy. Between golf ball and baseball size hail. Lots of damage. That cell went just north west of me.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 9:14:08 GMT -6
The showers and storms currently out west could certainly hinder instability and prevent widespread severe. I think that’s how it will play out. Something to keep in mind is that a strong EML(elevated mixed layer) will overspread the region later today during peak heating with rapidly steepening lapse rates...a system as dynamic as this one won't rely as much on surface heating. But the debris clouds and precip could have an impact for sure...especially with the ability for the warm front to surge northward. Definitely not a clear cut outbreak...they rarely are around here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 9:44:21 GMT -6
Thinking the SPC may pull the MOD risk further south towards the metro with the next update...severe parameters aren't as impressive with the latest model runs across E IA and NW IL and seem to be focused on W/central IL closer to the warm front. I don't expect an upgrade to a HIGH risk at this point.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 9:56:14 GMT -6
These storms to my SW gonna hold together?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 9:59:51 GMT -6
Thinking the SPC may pull the MOD risk further south towards the metro with the next update...severe parameters aren't as impressive with the latest model runs across E IA and NW IL and seem to be focused on W/central IL closer to the warm front. I don't expect an upgrade to a HIGH risk at this point. The warm front... I told ya! |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 10:27:50 GMT -6
Looks like they are weakening. Just more rain.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 10:45:13 GMT -6
Based on the new Day 1 graphics, the enhanced risk was expanded westward toward Columbia. Moderate risk area didnt change.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 28, 2020 10:49:02 GMT -6
🎵 Thunder to the north of me, lightning to the south, here I am stuck in the middle with you!🎵
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 10:52:15 GMT -6
The LSX office hasn't changed their graphics in a while. Do they not think this is going to be severe here? Just curious.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 10:55:32 GMT -6
The LSX office hasn't changed their graphics in a while. Do they not think this is going to be severe here? Just curious. I found it interesting that my point forecast made no mention of strong/severe storms. SPC pretty well stuck to their guns with the latest update but still mentions a possible upgrade to HIGH risk. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 10:56:30 GMT -6
RT is targeting Eastern IA, Western IL.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 11:04:32 GMT -6
Tornado warning Viburnum Mo.
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 28, 2020 11:09:14 GMT -6
Wish I wasn't stuck at work til 6...looks to get nasty up here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 11:23:13 GMT -6
RT is targeting Eastern IA, Western IL. Satellite shows clearing working into SE IA and W IL with the EML moving in...morning runs look to have underestimated destabilization up that way. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 11:26:52 GMT -6
RT is targeting Eastern IA, Western IL. Satellite shows clearing working into SE IA and W IL with the EML moving in...morning runs look to have underestimated destabilization up that way. Yes indeed! I am not sold on the enhanced risk in the metro. Seems excessive. I (Mascoutah) has been in the clouds since yesterday afternoon. Not that the dynamics arent there but I dont see the need for the enhanced risk here. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 28, 2020 11:45:10 GMT -6
I dont think we will see any severe in st.louis. airmass wont have time to recover
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 12:03:31 GMT -6
Supercells firing out to the west of LotO along the eastern edge of the EML...we're a long way from being out of the woods.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 12:12:22 GMT -6
LSX finally updated their graphics and point forecasts.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 12:13:29 GMT -6
Hrrr has some beefy sig tors still  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 12:15:11 GMT -6
The cell trucking NE that passed through Bonne Terre has lost potency as its crossed the river. More stable atmosphere over this way?
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Post by REB on Mar 28, 2020 12:18:46 GMT -6
Finished mowing just on time for the rain to start.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 12:20:56 GMT -6
The cell trucking NE that passed through Bonne Terre has lost potency as its crossed the river. More stable atmosphere over this way? More stable and weaker lift. The main event is just starting to unfold. I would expect at least a couple waves of supercells to develop and race NE across the region later today. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 12:22:51 GMT -6
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