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Post by RyanD on Dec 13, 2019 13:27:17 GMT -6
Really hoping the Euro is right. If so I think Chris may need to extend the accumulation line southward a county but right now that's splitting hairs and it's too early to make any tweaks. Maybe if the Euro holds strong at 00z we can feel better down here just south of the metro. It is good to have the work on our side.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2019 13:30:16 GMT -6
I do believe that in this set up, a south shift would be more convincing.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 13, 2019 13:32:04 GMT -6
Ran across a weather forecast on YouTube put out by “Direct Weather>“ Anyone know anything about who puts this out? What sort of track record they have?
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 14:33:13 GMT -6
Nam is still junk.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 14:35:06 GMT -6
I bet the euro will win
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Post by stlfisherman on Dec 13, 2019 14:42:24 GMT -6
This doesn't look like a big winter storm to me for St. Louis at this time. Rather, it looks like a quick hit of accumulating snow/sleet/freezing rain Sunday afternoon/evening followed by a period of freezing drizzle Sunday night and ending as some light snow/flurries on Monday. Total accumulation will depend on how long any location can remain snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain in the strong warm advection aloft. Still have time to watch this one, but like what Chris has out there.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2019 14:50:12 GMT -6
This doesn't look like a big winter storm to me for St. Louis at this time. Rather, it looks like a quick hit of accumulating snow/sleet/freezing rain Sunday afternoon/evening followed by a period of freezing drizzle Sunday night and ending as some light snow/flurries on Monday. Total accumulation will depend on how long any location can remain snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain in the strong warm advection aloft. Still have time to watch this one, but like what Chris has out there. Thanks for the info and dropping in! I’d be happy with a 1-3 or 2-4 inch storm ❄️ |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Dec 13, 2019 14:57:34 GMT -6
Fish - Thanks for stopping by with your input on the coming storm. It's appreciated!
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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2019 15:01:28 GMT -6
The million dollar question: I have a flight Monday late morning, thougths on impacts to roads?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 15:02:49 GMT -6
The million dollar question: I have a flight Monday late morning, thougths on impacts to roads? That timing may end up being very good. |
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hoffdar
Weather Weenie
Wentzville, MO
Posts: 6
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Post by hoffdar on Dec 13, 2019 15:03:51 GMT -6
Ice, Snow, Rain, etc have been mentioned + St. Louis = 2+ hours to your commute to the airport.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Dec 13, 2019 15:06:49 GMT -6
My wife works Sunday, it’s going to be a mess on the roads...always is when she works  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 15:20:17 GMT -6
ICON looks much improved from it's 12Z run fwiw.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 15:50:00 GMT -6
18Z RGEM is a beast along and north of I-70.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 15:50:21 GMT -6
Gfs slightly better. Starting a slight shift south i like where 70 lays when all is said and done
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 15:53:55 GMT -6
St.chuck looks good on gfs with mondays round 3 to 6 across the area total
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2019 15:57:17 GMT -6
And the southern shift begins lol.... I hope the whole area gets a nice blanket of snow ❄️
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 15:58:15 GMT -6
I suspect tonight's runs will come a tad farther south still, but probably cut amounts in half.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 16:01:50 GMT -6
Also lolz for the models waffling with tonight's disturbance... First north, then south, now coming back north again at the last minute. This could be a clue for the upcoming event. The model's performance as of late hasn't been all that great.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 13, 2019 16:02:44 GMT -6
I don’t know, I’m just not that excited about this one. I hope I’m wrong but I just get this sleet to rain feeling. Been hurt too much in the past I guess lol.
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Post by TK on Dec 13, 2019 16:03:05 GMT -6
The million dollar question: I have a flight Monday late morning, thougths on impacts to roads? That timing may end up being very good. Tks Chris - I also fly out late Monday morning.... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 16:03:45 GMT -6
So nws has maybe 1 to 2 for me. With 4 in warren county. Lame
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 16:23:30 GMT -6
So nws has maybe 1 to 2 for me. With 4 in warren county. Lame It is because they know you from in here and just want to mess with you  Just kidding of course...mostly...maybe. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 13, 2019 16:46:04 GMT -6
Hope I'm not late to the game... but I think we have a storm of interest Sunday and Monday.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2019 17:08:43 GMT -6
Hope I'm not late to the game... but I think we have a storm of interest Sunday and Monday. Now where did you hear that news? I heard sunny and 75. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2019 17:28:42 GMT -6
Hope I'm not late to the game... but I think we have a storm of interest Sunday and Monday. Go on... |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 13, 2019 17:35:11 GMT -6
Angela posted 2-4 for the Metro...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 18:16:26 GMT -6
18z euro came in further north but beefier  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2019 18:17:29 GMT -6
The 18z GFS soundings show some dry air in the dendrite growth zone (DGZ). I know it's still far out...tomorrow's 12z runs will be more telling as the system will be in N CA and further west on land. It looks like this event will have most of its ice nucleation formation just below the DGZ at around 600mb. Using the top down approach, there looks to be a moderate warm wedge from 700mb down to 850mb. Then, refreezing taking place (3* C colder) from 850m down to 950mb. Then some warming near the surface. Overall at 00z Sun, the column looks fully below 0* C so most likely snow. Though, I have my doubts...bc that sounding to me says sleet. It's possible that we may not get good dendrite growth. As well, we are going to have some trouble with freezing rain IMO after midnight into very early. Mon once the warm wedge from 700mb to 850mb gets more intense and ice crystals melt more (column gets above 0* C). And the cold air from the surface isn't at least 3* C colder so freezing rain forms instead of sleet/snow at the surface. Overall, I think at least a 3 hr window of potentially intense WAA snow is becoming likely to start at 2-3pm on Sun. Most of all WAA events start a couple hours earlier. I think Chris's forecast looks good. Although once again, I am wondering if sleet will cut into our totals.
Moving on deformation snows look possible later Mon which would easily get us into the 1-3" range. But we know that isn't a given until are 24 hrs out up to the time it's snowing (when wave 2 rolls through).
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 18:21:13 GMT -6
When all is said and done. I believe thr highest snow will be from columbia to st.charles to litchfield with 3 to 6 then 2 to 5 as far south as northen jefco to.jeff city then 1 to 3 south to about farmington. Then little to no snow south of farmington to lebanon with beginning ice to rain.
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