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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2019 21:02:10 GMT -6
I really do think you stl folks are in good shape.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 21:03:58 GMT -6
ICON remains north for wave 1, similar wave 2 from it's past couple runs.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 21:05:41 GMT -6
Here comes the RGEM with a load of awesomeness.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 492 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 14, 2019 21:07:26 GMT -6
We know models don’t handle well inside 24 hours. Off the ledge everyone!
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Dec 14, 2019 21:08:22 GMT -6
What’s good shape?!?! We are at crunch time and I am trying to figure out if my wife should just plan to be stuck at work tomorrow or not.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 14, 2019 21:16:20 GMT -6
Turn on Angela now! She’ll be back on after the commercials!
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 21:16:52 GMT -6
RGEM is going to give us a foot lol
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Post by MakeitRain on Dec 14, 2019 21:24:25 GMT -6
Looks like an ice storm to me.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 14, 2019 21:26:51 GMT -6
Turn on Angela now! She’ll be back on after the commercials! Sticking with the 1-3 |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 21:38:25 GMT -6
The R-GEM goes tub thumping.
Wave #1:
6"+ right along 44 through the metro
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 21:39:57 GMT -6
Gfs touch north. BUT im really more interested in short range models now
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Post by TK on Dec 14, 2019 21:40:22 GMT -6
How bout them Blues! 4 unanswered goals in third to beat Hawks!
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 21:44:12 GMT -6
Gfs awesome on monday. I still feel 70 is the best spot
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 21:46:42 GMT -6
Gfs awesome on monday. I still feel 70 is the best spot Of course you do. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 21:47:26 GMT -6
I love it for our house yes but in general 70 is honed in pretty good
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 14, 2019 21:49:30 GMT -6
The 00z gfs sucks
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 21:49:31 GMT -6
Where's BRTWXMAN at?
Anyone remember if the storm Nov 11/12ish this year had any last minute N/S adjustments which weren't modeled?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 14, 2019 21:50:26 GMT -6
Bottom line. Let’s stay chill. Everyone along the Missouri River and one county south is sitting pretty right now. Time to eat yo steak, drink yo Jack, and face plant in some double chocolate!!!
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 21:52:36 GMT -6
Even nws discussion says warning and advisories will be issued tonight and they are moving toward the 70 scenario. And gfs is still 4 to 8 for.mo river north. Just slight adjustments
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 21:52:39 GMT -6
Stronger LLJ like the 00z NAM which you mentioned earlier? Either way it's time to start looking at the satellite imagery and radar soon IMO. As well, focus on the HRRR/RAP, etc. Though, still today models only do so much, we know that well. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 21:56:44 GMT -6
Hrrr is looking really good though. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2019 21:58:45 GMT -6
My hope lies with wave 2.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 21:59:48 GMT -6
Not that it's a big deal, but the WRF model is much further SE away from the metro with wave 2.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 14, 2019 22:06:55 GMT -6
It is amazing how much model inconsistency we still have this close to the event. As usual I feel I'm likely on the southern fringe of the meaningful accumulating snow.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 14, 2019 22:10:27 GMT -6
How bout them Blues! 4 unanswered goals in third to beat Hawks! I missed the first 53 minutes, then watched the last 7 minutes of the Robert Thomas show on my phone. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 14, 2019 22:17:42 GMT -6
Then there is this, from the 9:19PM update:
“These deterministic model runs have also shifted the axis of heaviest snow a bit further south centered along the I-70 corridor. Impressive isentropic lift and frontogenetic forcing is expected to support a rather wide snow band with rates at times from 0.5 to 1 inch per hour. If these solutions are in fact correct with the intensity and location then are current snowfall amounts during the afternoon would need to be doubled, and closer to 4-5 inches along this axis. I hesitate making alot of changes to the forecast at this time based on 2 deterministic models when a closer
evaluation of the full model suite and ensembles may not fully support this decided south shift.”
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 22:19:00 GMT -6
GEM had yielded to the model consensus and shifted a bit farther south and brings the heaviest snow through the heart of the metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 22:27:26 GMT -6
Looking like there could be some mesoscale banding and/or some slantwise convective enhancement in the first wave on Sunday. SPC SREF ensemble charts are showing 70% probability of low MPV(EPV) numbers combined with strong frontogenesis in the key 700-600mb layer. Time/height diagrams are showing a period of vertically oriented theta-e contours and soundings show 100kts of nearly unidirectional shear above the low level boundary up to 200mb. All this is occurring in the right entrance region of a 160kt upper level jet streak across the Lakes region. So some of the indicators are there. You can sorta see this in the long range HRRR/HRRRv4 sim reflectivity as well. If this does occur it can be great (if it's snow) for those under one of these county-wide bands and suck for those that aren't.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 22:29:39 GMT -6
The GEM has been king thus far this season...let's see if it can keep up its streak.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 22:36:07 GMT -6
As for the second phase it seemed to me the 12z Euro was a bit too robust with the low level cyclone given the sorta strung out nature of the 500mb vorticity. I think the messier/weaker solution with the second phase like the GFS is showing seems more reasonable. Will be interesting to see what tonight's Euro does though...I guess I'll probably stay up for that  . |
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