Chris's Corner - Happy Veterans Day 2019

[Frivolousz21]

The short term models continue to press the idea of a large enhanced area of precipitation coming up i44 late morning.

Starting as rain but quickly changing to snow.

Eventually giving way to banded light snow by late afternoon.

Where this overlaps with wind aided(jet aided) lift will probably have the best chance at heavy enough snow to really overcome the warm roads.


That area is also the most likely to potentially reach 3"+.


But this is not universally agreed on considering the name which has the heaviest snow along 44 through the metro doesn't really show consolidated vorticity energy.

Who knows.

[unclesam6]

hats off to the canadian for holding its guns. That model has been about as consistent as can be all weekend long.

[addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo]

I’m lost for words as to what the Hi-Res models have done tonight. That is a beauty of a meso they are picking up on. Now if only we could just get half that to verify!!!

[cozpregon]

Nice RER jet structure for us

[cardsnweather]

HRRR dominates

[Snowstorm920]

The normally conservative RAP is putting out some beef in the 03z run

[Frivolousz21]

Nov 10, 2019 22:37:13 GMT -6 cardsnweather said:

HRRR dominates

That outcome would certainly change the forecast a bit.

[Snowstorm920]

From the 9:30pm AFD update

The remainder of the forecast with precipitation becoming more
widespread on Monday morning and continuing into the afternoon in
response to increasing mid level frontogenetic forcing and large
scale forcing still looks on target. While road surface temperatures
are currently in the 40s, falling surface temperatures into the
mid-upper 20s and snowfall rates at times near a half-inch an hour
should result in accumulating snowfall centered during the later
part of the morning and into the afternoon. While I think the
greatest accumulation will be on the grass and elevated surfaces,
the aforementioned rates and temperature trends support snow
accumulating on untreated roads. The winter weather advisory and
current forecast amounts of 1-2 inches look solid, and infact we
could see some local amounts of 2+ inches.

[Frivolousz21]

Nov 10, 2019 22:56:57 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

From the 9:30pm AFD update

The remainder of the forecast with precipitation becoming more
widespread on Monday morning and continuing into the afternoon in
response to increasing mid level frontogenetic forcing and large
scale forcing still looks on target. While road surface temperatures
are currently in the 40s, falling surface temperatures into the
mid-upper 20s and snowfall rates at times near a half-inch an hour
should result in accumulating snowfall centered during the later
part of the morning and into the afternoon. While I think the
greatest accumulation will be on the grass and elevated surfaces,
the aforementioned rates and temperature trends support snow
accumulating on untreated roads. The winter weather advisory and
current forecast amounts of 1-2 inches look solid, and infact we
could see some local amounts of 2+ inches.

The 00z models definitely influenced those thoughts.

[Frivolousz21]

There is some emerging guidance that's targeting along and South of 44 seeing the most snow.

This is predicated on precipitation coverage not temperatures.

[Snowstorm920]

Euro still showing 2-3" for the area

The biggest winners are southern IL with near 4" using Kuchera derived maps

[Frivolousz21]

Nov 11, 2019 0:02:38 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

Euro still showing 2-3" for the area

The biggest winners are southern IL with near 4" using Kuchera derived maps

The ukmet has 2-3" centered on STL and just South.

[Chris Higgins]

Good morning all...

Looking at all the available data so far this morning and it's obvious as you all have noted that there is a trend towards more QPF. It appears there are going to be a number of fairly narrow and transient bands of locally enhanced snow within a larger region of light snow. The transient nature of these more intense bands and their very narrow structure will make for a very challenging snow fall total forecast. Additional factors continue to weigh heavily in my thought process… the warm ground conditions following the antecedent warm weekend… as well as the time of day and time of year. Also factoring in will be the rapid temperature drop that should occur midway through the snow fall. My concern in a nutshell is that outside of the transient narrow bands of more enhanced snow, snowfall rates may be insufficient to overcome the warm ground conditions until late in the event. However, as a nod toward the slightly heavier QPF I feel it is prudent to nudge my 1" total max up to 2" but continue the dusting on the low end. Therefore my initial plan as I start building out my shows is to forecast a general "dusting to 2" for the entire area to cover the spread. Road conditions will become slushy underneath the smaller more enhanced bands and on rural less traveled roadways by mid day. I would not be surprised if some of the outlying school districts decide to cancel because of the potential of having school busses out this afternoon as the cold air arrives and the snow diminishes.

[Frivolousz21]

The short term models are really buying into along and SE of I44 being the focal point.

The euro and ukmet both agree with this.

[Tilawn]

Well crap I guess I better go get at least the salt spreader on the truck now so I’m not doing is it’s coming down.

[Tilawn]

Chris, is the start and end time factors still about the same as it was yesterday in your update at the top of this thread?
TIA

[Frivolousz21]

Updated NWS forecast:


Veterans Day
Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 24 by 4pm. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[Frivolousz21]

The 06Z rgem has 3"+ for the immediate metro.

[Frivolousz21]

Short range models now showing the famous snow hole over the immediate metro.

[House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~]

Started as rain here in Excello Missouri around 530 starting to have sleet n snow mix in now

I'll be here till the 19th I'll let y'all know how it is up here

[Frivolousz21]

It's nowcast time.

Can only hope for some excitement.

[Chris Higgins]

Radar trends seem to leaning towards band of more significant snow setting up near/along I-70...and maybe 20 miles either side...into at least the northwest half of the metro.
I want to firm that up a bit...before adding the band of "spot 3" numbers.

[Steven Penrod- HLEW]

Happy Veterans Day to all Active and Retired members. Also thank you Chris for your service.

[lunchladyd]

Happy Veterens Day to all of you in the corner who have served or is serving. Thank you for your service!

[Chris Higgins]

Thanks MTW gang! It is an real honor and privilege to serve! I must say I am looking forward to retirement in three years

[unclesam6]

Moderate snow. Fat flakes.

[STGOutdoors]

I used this a good bit last year:

journalism.missouri.edu/our-stories/j-school-live-webcam/

[STGOutdoors]

Someone is going to end up in somewhat no-man's land between the northern and southern bands I think. Unless we can get it to consolidate more to make us all happy.

[snowday_lover]

Our school, Arcadia Valley, called off for today since we have a policy of not letting out early. Better to be safe than sorry. Chris, and anyone else on here that serves or has served-Thank you! Your sacrifices for all of us do not go unappreciated.

[Chris Higgins]

Nov 11, 2019 7:22:47 GMT -6 STGOutdoors said:

Someone is going to end up in somewhat no-man's land between the northern and southern bands I think. Unless we can get it to consolidate more to make us all happy.

To be expected. But up to this point there was no way to say for sure where that would be. It is starting to look like just southeast of the metro MAY get the low end...with higher amounts northwest of I-44.
This is why I broad brushed with "dusting to 2" to cover that spread since there is next to no skill in finding these narrow bands until after the develop.