Chris's Corner - Heading into Fall

[jmg378s]

The always conservative Joint Typhoon Warning Center set the initial intensity of Halong as 140kts (barely Cat 5) this morning.  What?  The raw & adjusted Advanced Dvorak Technique T-numbers from the Himawari satellite prior to that advisory were T7.9.  Remember Haiyan was a T8.2 at it's peak.

2019NOV05 114000 7.6 896.1 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.81 -81.56 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.90 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[Snowman99]

Halong is a mighty stahm.

[modracer]

Sorry to hear that, did they play for Marrisa?

Reminds me of the movie Animal House. I know, showing my age. One of John “Bluto” Belushi's many infamous quote's from that movie, “Christ, Seven years of college down the drain"

It's sad, because you know it's a chapter in their life that is coming to a close, and slowly moving them into adulthood. Cherish these times while you can.

Nov 1, 2019 8:22:07 GMT -6 dschreib said:

We lost in the regional finals (volleyball) last night, so tears were the only things passed out at our house.  Eight straight years of HS volleyball comes to an end.  Next up--basketball.

[Frivolousz21]

Nov 5, 2019 12:57:05 GMT -6 jmg378s said:

The always conservative Joint Typhoon Warning Center set the initial intensity of Halong as 140kts (barely Cat 5) this morning.  What?  The raw & adjusted Advanced Dvorak Technique T-numbers from the Himawari satellite prior to that advisory were T7.9.  Remember Haiyan was a T8.2 at it's peak.

2019NOV05 114000 7.6 896.1 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.81 -81.56 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.90 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

That thing is unbelievable.

More like 185KTS

[bdgwx]

And in November? Is that normal for the West Pacific?

[Snowman99]

NWS has lows in the teens and highs around freezing next MOn and Tues.

[jmg378s]

Nov 5, 2019 13:55:20 GMT -6 Frivolousz21 said:

Nov 5, 2019 12:57:05 GMT -6 jmg378s said:

The always conservative Joint Typhoon Warning Center set the initial intensity of Halong as 140kts (barely Cat 5) this morning.  What?  The raw & adjusted Advanced Dvorak Technique T-numbers from the Himawari satellite prior to that advisory were T7.9.  Remember Haiyan was a T8.2 at it's peak.

That thing is unbelievable.

More like 185KTS

Wouldn't go that high.  But I tend to be more conservative, so 160kts would have been more reasonable.  I mean Patricia peaked at 185kts right?  And I think it's peak T number was 8.4.


But 140kts...c'mon.

[jmg378s]

It's a shame there is no recon in the Western Pacific. Potentially lots of valuable scientific data that could be added to data sets to help test and calibrate observation systems against the most intense storms on the planet.

[STGOutdoors]

Where can I go to find daily temp data (highs and lows) over the years?

[addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo]

Nov 5, 2019 16:26:22 GMT -6 STGOutdoors said:

Where can I go to find daily temp data (highs and lows) over the years?

This goes back to 2006 otherwise you hafta look at the good ol fashion pdfs in the climo section.
www.weather.gov/lsx/monthTab

[unclesam6]

Nov 5, 2019 16:26:22 GMT -6 STGOutdoors said:

Where can I go to find daily temp data (highs and lows) over the years?

scacis.rcc-acis.org/

It's a bit of a learning curve, but this will solve pretty much any temperature crunch you want to find.

[STGOutdoors]

How about that November Louisiana ice storm on the gfs for Monday/Tuesday...lol.

[unclesam6]

GEM is unreal cold, and the GFS has trended cooler 00z.

This will be an interesting outbreak to witness.

[Chris Higgins]

A couple of things right off the bat this morning...
1) slashing temps for today. The clouds and early arrival of a few showers will cut into our temp rise. I was bugged by that potential yesterday but sort of put it on the back burner.
2) The clipper system for Friday night no longer appears to be a concern.
3) The second cold front appears to be a little slower (although I remain somewhat skeptical considering how cold this air is). But...the ensembles have slowed it to the point that I need to adjust temps for Sunday upwards.
4) Speaking of ensembles... they continue to support the idea of some pretty intense cold for early/mid November for next week. I have taken another step down....not yet to record levels... but a little closer. Looking at the 2m temps vs. MOS temps shows the MOS may be biased high toward climo. If we had snow on the ground... I would be more aggressive. But time of year has me easing temps down vs aggressively knocking them down.

[dschreib]

Nov 5, 2019 16:26:22 GMT -6 STGOutdoors said:

Where can I go to find daily temp data (highs and lows) over the years?

Weather Underground.  It's rounded to the whole number, but it goes back to the 1950s or earlier.

[bellevillewxguy]

NAM as well as some of the other convective models i.e the WRF, NMM suggest a period of moderate snow tomorrow morning which could drop a dusting to a sloppy wet inch on grassy surfaces between 6-9AM. Won't last long but could be impressive for 1-3 hours.

[STGOutdoors]

Yea looks like the NAM is up to its old tricks again...we'll see.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Icon is pure winter on Monday with strong CAA dropping temps into the low 20s through the afternoon.

It shows some light snow for the area too.

[Snowstorm920]

Nov 6, 2019 9:10:38 GMT -6 bellevillewxguy said:

NAM as well as some of the other convective models i.e the WRF, NMM suggest a period of moderate snow tomorrow morning which could drop a dusting to a sloppy wet inch on grassy surfaces between 6-9AM. Won't last long but could be impressive for 1-3 hours.

SREFs have even started to print out some snow for parts of the area tomorrow morning 

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

12z gfs now bringing a thump of snow to the southern counties on Monday.

Good trends this morning

[STGOutdoors]

Well hello there GFS for Monday morning...

The high being slightly weaker along with a stronger push from the southern stream allows that to happen. Certainly plausible.

[bellevillewxguy]

Would be nice to get a good hit of snow on the day of my Dental Appointment Monday. Something fun to look forward to.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

12z ukmet looks interesting for Monday, ggem not so much.

[Snowman99]

Euro gives northern MO into Chi town a few inches Monday, here, maybe some flakes.Then maybe more south of here. Classic

[guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters]

Another one of those textbook “fall“ days. Only thing missing here is the rain (we haven't had any yet). But that may change.

[bellevillewxguy]

WRF ARWv2 equals lol. Shows narrow band of 5-8" for the southern half of the metro tomorrow.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Nov 6, 2019 12:32:54 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

Euro gives northern MO into Chi town a few inches Monday, here, maybe some flakes.Then maybe more south of here. Classic

Makes the Icon look credible

[Snowstorm920]

Nov 6, 2019 12:32:54 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

Euro gives northern MO into Chi town a few inches Monday, here, maybe some flakes.Then maybe more south of here. Classic

Quite the change from the 00z run. Northern stream is not nearly as suppressive and allows the southern stream to get involved. Hopefully we can keep that trend going  

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Nov 6, 2019 12:43:43 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

Nov 6, 2019 12:32:54 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

Euro gives northern MO into Chi town a few inches Monday, here, maybe some flakes.Then maybe more south of here. Classic

Quite the change from the 00z run. Northern stream is not nearly as suppressive and allows the southern stream to get involved. Hopefully we can keep that trend going  

How do we get it to look like the Halloween storm but with cold air?

[Snowstorm920]

Now we get to our main focus: the Arctic cold outbreak for early to middle next week. There is becoming strong confidence on this event per the gefs mean with relatively low spread among the individual members. A classic cold outbreak setup with the upper longwave trough axis retrograding westward into the plains late this weekend and then deepening into the MS and Ohio River valleys for early next week. This will be coincident with a 1050mb area of high pressure at the surface driving southeastward into our region beginning on Sunday night and lingering (albeit with some modification of the airmass) into Wednesday.

Monday through Wednesday look really cold--about 25 to 30 degrees below normal--where many areas may not get above freezing for all three of these days! Early morning min temperatures look to be in the teens, possibly single digits in spots. All of these values are supported well by gefs ensemble members with relatively low spread. When factoring in the winds, wind chills may dip below zero, particularly during the early morning hours. Quantifying all of this, if realized, it will be the first time since 1991 that we have seen an airmass this cold in the first half of November, nearly 30 years. (1991 was the last time stl and cou saw 3 consecutive days of below freezing Max temps in the first half of november)