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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 9:30:53 GMT -6
Icon looks meh for tomorrow, but quite interesting for the storm next week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2019 9:44:45 GMT -6
GFS is steady with tomorrow. A hair dryer but colder so even I would be looking at mostly snow.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 9:45:04 GMT -6
Gfs looks great bery realistic 2 to 4 inch. Also i am betting on a 12 to 15 to 1 ratio with the fluffy cold nature of the snow
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 9:54:42 GMT -6
Also gfs is very concerning for freezing rain on top of the snow saturday night
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 10:01:46 GMT -6
The gfs has a pretty good vorticity.
I was thinking when I first looked at the vorticity that it would be a little more wet
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 10:05:14 GMT -6
The fv3 has 3-4" South of 64/40.
About 1.1.5"along and North of 70.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 10:07:39 GMT -6
Im going to call the average of 3 at lambert. Thats final
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 10:10:07 GMT -6
Looking at this winter. This may be the bussiest season this thread has ever had starting in November
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2019 10:22:40 GMT -6
NOAA and NWS have "declared" that El Nino has finally arrived?! I thought it was already here! The definition of El Nino is a bit variable depending on who you ask. If using the ONI as a metric NOAA defines an El Nino as a 5 month period in which the 3 month running average is >= +0.5. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 10:23:40 GMT -6
Really, all they are doing is confirming that we have been in an El nino for the past several months albeit weak
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2019 10:23:43 GMT -6
9Z SREF is at 2" for the airport.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 10:31:26 GMT -6
If thats the case is it sort of suprising how aresome our winter jas been with a week elnino. I know winter is bout done but still. I mean in my opinion any snow after march 1st is bonus i always use feb 28th as my cut off. March is just bonus
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2019 10:35:12 GMT -6
I've always thought our best winters were during weak el nino years...especially ones featuring blocking.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 10:37:42 GMT -6
Did we ever have blocking this winTer. Just seems like said earlier a extreme rapid firing of storms at us. Almost to where im tired lol.ive probably slept less this winter than ever model worshiping all night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 10:41:46 GMT -6
FV3 looks pretty good with the system early next week
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 10:50:05 GMT -6
Snow what is it showing?
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 10:55:43 GMT -6
Has anyone seen the UKMET?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 10:57:29 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see the euro today. Has it eased southwest a bit like others... Is it less juicy than before???
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2019 10:59:55 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see the euro today. Has it eased southwest a bit like others... Is it less juicy than before??? Dum dum dum dummmm...the suspense! I'm starting to think most of us will see at least 2 inches. Several spots could hit 4 but too early to say who/where yet. It took a day of positive model trends to change my perspective  . |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2019 11:17:20 GMT -6
Gotta dig the RAP  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2019 11:20:58 GMT -6
Yea RAP is awesome. Always good to have it on your side.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2019 11:36:21 GMT -6
Gotta dig the RAP Meh. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 14, 2019 11:39:27 GMT -6
Remember the clippers earlier this year? All ended up further north than modeled.
This storm is a bit different, but still coming from Albertaish region.
I’m wishcasting a 50-75 mile north jog of the main precip band, mainly based on seasonal trends.
Let’s see how this rides.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2019 11:42:12 GMT -6
Remember the clippers earlier this year? All ended up further north than modeled. This storm is a bit different, but still coming from Albertaish region. I’m wishcasting a 50-75 mile north jog of the main precip band, mainly based on seasonal trends. Let’s see how this rides. It's not really a true clipper though...it's coming ashore in CA and ejecting from CO. I'm not going to be surprised if the main band ends up to my SW...I've missed quite a few snowfalls to the S this season already. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 14, 2019 11:46:57 GMT -6
Remember the clippers earlier this year? All ended up further north than modeled. This storm is a bit different, but still coming from Albertaish region. I’m wishcasting a 50-75 mile north jog of the main precip band, mainly based on seasonal trends. Let’s see how this rides. It's not really a true clipper though...it's coming ashore in CA and ejecting from CO. I'm not going to be surprised if the main band ends up to my SW...I've missed quite a few snowfalls to the S this season already. Really, I’m just wanting it north, and slower arrival so we don’t have to play basketball on Saturday morning. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 12:05:48 GMT -6
Euro is coming out really slow on WxBell
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2019 12:09:22 GMT -6
This winter won't be epic for me unless I get a good snowpacked road in front of my house which will be hard to get now unless the snow arrives at night. Despite seeing 18" so far I've still not had a snowpacked road. It has either been wet or at best partially packed. Ideally I wanted a 6+" snowfall with snowpacked roads followed by subzero temps but it's too late in the season to realistically expect that to happen. So far I give this winter a B+.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2019 12:16:56 GMT -6
12Z Euro is 0.3" QPF at the airport. With a 12:1 ratio that would be 3.5". There is slightly higher totals in a line from Columbia to Arnold.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 12:22:38 GMT -6
12z euro is still not coming in on WxBell
Good to hear it still looks good
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 14, 2019 12:25:33 GMT -6
62 Degrees already today....another snow falling on warm ground tomorrow.
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