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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 22:47:34 GMT -6
The fact that it closes off in OK/KS doesn't equate to much when it opens up and shears out by the time it gets here. But that's not necessarily a bad thing as a less amplified system will have weaker WAA. We really need the upper system to dig further S before ejecting E/NE so the wave digging towards the lakes in the N branch gets out ahead and builds the ridge over the top vs. behind it. Still a formidable winter storm for parts of the region on the GFS... If it didn't close off before and now it is closing off for a period of time, I would think it might have a chance to remain closed longer? Also, normally you would want the high pressure sitting over the great lakes, not as far west as modeled now. I would think it has a little room to pull north because of the position of the high pressure? Seasonal trend certainly argues for a closed low vs. open but I can see how it gets sheared with the trof axis getting strung out. But yes, if there's not a decent extension of the ridge across the lakes, the storm will pull further north easier. But with the arctic airmass pressing down on the storm it can only lift so far. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 22:49:12 GMT -6
Yea I wouldn't put much stock in that Gfs solution. It'll catch on to reality eventually, whatever that is. Icon has done well and looks great. Good to see our neighbor to the north look better too. LOL, Not trying to bust your balls but that's some serious cherry picking If I'm being completely honest with you and myself I realized that as I was typing it but went ahead and posted anyway lol. Been a long day. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jan 14, 2019 23:05:38 GMT -6
Chris, I read your Facebook post until the end and “There is no reason to get all wrapped around the axle 5 days out...” is the best phrase I’ve heard in awhile. Even if you are trying to reach deeper into a wheel well? |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 14, 2019 23:29:49 GMT -6
Chris, I read your Facebook post until the end and “There is no reason to get all wrapped around the axle 5 days out...” is the best phrase I’ve heard in awhile. Even if you are trying to reach deeper into a wheel well? No because that would only be Kooler if he was able to. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 14, 2019 23:31:53 GMT -6
Yea I wouldn't put much stock in that Gfs solution. It'll catch on to reality eventually, whatever that is. Icon has done well and looks great. Good to see our neighbor to the north look better too. LOL, Not trying to bust your balls but that's some serious cherry picking Maybe a little but the GFS was most definitely the last model to ever so slowly catch up to the rest. I didn’t trust it with the last storm and I’m not trusting it now. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 23:46:02 GMT -6
FV3 has a backside warning level snowfall for the entire area
I did great with the last system and has had a pretty stable solution the last several runs
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 23:51:24 GMT -6
That looks like a legit backside blizzard on the FV3 to
30mb pressure gradient across Mo with heavy snow falling
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 15, 2019 0:20:08 GMT -6
come on euro!!!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:25:49 GMT -6
euro is rain to brief mix to very windy snow..several inches worth
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2019 0:27:01 GMT -6
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't WSC call this weekend's storm last weekend based on ICON data?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:28:29 GMT -6
Euro is a much stronger wrapped up system it looks like
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 0:29:07 GMT -6
Euro is a backside blizzard to
Showing warning level snowfall with sustained winds of 20mph...gusting to 50mph
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:31:05 GMT -6
euro would be FUN
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 0:31:27 GMT -6
Euro is a much stronger wrapped up system it looks like Very much so. It gets a nice wrapped up low going. It does eventually get sheared but not until east of here |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 0:34:55 GMT -6
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't WSC call this weekend's storm last weekend based on ICON data? ICON seems like a sneaky good model. Those Germans might of figured something out |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:35:40 GMT -6
The wind at hour 120 is crazy, like a 34 mb difference across the state.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:36:09 GMT -6
Germans are sneaky alright..
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 0:37:36 GMT -6
So the only model not showing a rather impactful/major winter system is the GFS
That sounds familiar
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2019 0:39:13 GMT -6
It's a nice setup
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 0:43:55 GMT -6
Euro has temps staying in the single numbers on Sunday..well below 0 Sunday night. Would be likely if we get the snow it shows,. Going to be a frigid game in KC. Yikes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 0:49:33 GMT -6
So the only model not showing a rather impactful/major winter system is the GFS That sounds familiar I should clarify this is from the metro point of view
GFS drops a foot of snow 50 miles north of downtown which would be pretty impactful for the northern counties
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 1:49:43 GMT -6
Euro mean is about 4 over the metro..up an inch or 2 from 12 z, and has expanded south as well.
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Jan 15, 2019 1:53:33 GMT -6
Euro has temps staying in the single numbers on Sunday..well below 0 Sunday night. Would be likely if we get the snow it shows,. Going to be a frigid game in KC. Yikes. I will be at the game Sunday,I believe the coldest temperature in arrowhead history is -6 |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 2:58:31 GMT -6
Germans are sneaky alright.. Especially when they bombed Pearl Harbor |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 15, 2019 3:38:41 GMT -6
Germans are sneaky alright.. Especially when they bombed Pearl Harbor Is[br It’s not over until we say it’s over 😀 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 5:06:11 GMT -6
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't WSC call this weekend's storm last weekend based on ICON data? I was quite excited about this one lol. Euro has upped the game quite a bit. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 5:17:41 GMT -6
I have drizzle here, though on my car it's just with no freezing at this time
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 5:18:51 GMT -6
Chris has a low of 5 Saturday night, 0 Snnday night and a high on Sunday of 13. Chilly.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2019 5:35:32 GMT -6
I would have gone colder...but I want to be more certain on fresh snowcover.
I did float the "near blizzard" wording at times in the 4am...for Saturday...
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 5:39:58 GMT -6
Still thinking 1-3, 2-4, or maybe more Saturday Chris? Leaning toward medium impact...or high? Just wondering what your thoughts are as of this morning.
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