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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:20:57 GMT -6
12z EURO still a good hit with a potent storm...looks like it has shifted the mass fields a bit further S closer to the typical GYB positions for heavy snowfall in STL. Still looks like ZR or PL is possible with the 2*F h85 isotherm lifting in the Metro area before shifting back south on the backside.
Starting to see some tighter clustering beginning with operational and ensemble forecasts.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 13:26:23 GMT -6
I agree brtn , the icon , gfs , Euro and GEFS are all very similar in there tracks . We’ll see what the eps shows soon.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:31:14 GMT -6
I agree brtn , the icon , gfs , Euro and GEFS are all very similar in there tracks . We’ll see what the eps shows soon. Add the 00z NAEFS to that list as well... |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 13:40:56 GMT -6
What model is that?
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 14, 2019 13:41:00 GMT -6
all of the sudden in 10 hours its going to be Tuesday, looking at a potential late Friday storm. This is about the time last week when you guys started getting more and more confident in your thoughts for this past weekend's storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:46:22 GMT -6
Have to agree with others who don't expect this snow cover to completely melt by this weekend...the density and water content and potential for cloudiness will make it a slow process. We might loose a lot...but I still expect some to be around by Friday.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 14, 2019 13:46:37 GMT -6
I wish it was more of a Thursday/Friday scenario. Id like to burn up a full snow day, especially Friday!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:47:56 GMT -6
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 14, 2019 13:48:39 GMT -6
WC what storm you talking about in the 8-10 day range? |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 14, 2019 13:48:41 GMT -6
I wish it was more of a Thursday/Friday scenario. Id like to burn up a full snow day, especially Friday! its definitely going to be very bizarre if we get a big Friday/early Saturday wallop, then have school off anyway until Tuesday morning, and have back-to-back major winter storms in 2 weeks with zero full days off of school. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:49:53 GMT -6
all of the sudden in 10 hours its going to be Tuesday, looking at a potential late Friday storm. This is about the time last week when you guys started getting more and more confident in your thoughts for this past weekend's storm. I typically use the 96hr mark as a breaking point for potential vs. likely occurence...if models are still in step by tomorrow evening that will be telling, IMO. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 13:56:50 GMT -6
WC what storm you talking about in the 8-10 day range? Just a strong signal on the models for another major winter storm in the Midwest next week. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 14:00:43 GMT -6
It definitely looks like good potential for another possibly significant to major storm coming out a few days after this next one. And there's lots of cold air sloshing around to go with it.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 14:01:38 GMT -6
"Sloshing" great description Brtn!
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 14, 2019 14:13:17 GMT -6
I wish it was more of a Thursday/Friday scenario. Id like to burn up a full snow day, especially Friday! its definitely going to be very bizarre if we get a big Friday/early Saturday wallop, then have school off anyway until Tuesday morning, and have back-to-back major winter storms in 2 weeks with zero full days off of school. Plenty of schools cancelled a full day, today. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2019 14:16:31 GMT -6
I don't see as much melting as compacting going on today.. There really isn't much water rolling down the street or the sidewalk. It would have to get really warm for a couple of days...and windy...and rain...to knock out all of this. It also will be slower because of the widespread coverage and density of the snow.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 14, 2019 14:18:26 GMT -6
It definitely looks like good potential for another possibly significant to major storm coming out a few days after this next one. And there's lots of cold air sloshing around to go with it. I wonder if this will be one of those cases where the 2nd system will be more interesting than the first. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 14, 2019 14:21:56 GMT -6
its definitely going to be very bizarre if we get a big Friday/early Saturday wallop, then have school off anyway until Tuesday morning, and have back-to-back major winter storms in 2 weeks with zero full days off of school. Plenty of schools cancelled a full day, today. this is true, I was just talking about my personal district (and most inside the immediate metro), compared to when there are area-wide call-offs. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 14, 2019 14:23:47 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 14:43:50 GMT -6
EPS has the best snow probs across the Mo-Ia border and on into northern Illinois
Mean snowfall in the metro in ~3" with the max of about 7" in the area I just highlighted
Mean QPF in rather high with 1" in the western counties and up to 1.5" in the eastern counties
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2019 14:49:33 GMT -6
It definitely looks like good potential for another possibly significant to major storm coming out a few days after this next one. And there's lots of cold air sloshing around to go with it. Uh, crap. Are you saying roughly midweek?I'm supposed to do the drive to Ohio on the 23rd (wed). |
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Post by packrat on Jan 14, 2019 14:53:00 GMT -6
Just had my checker at the grocery store tell me that a police officer told her we were getting 20” of snow this weekend. 🙄 I told her that she should just continue to pay attention. I swear, misinformation is almost as bad as no information.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 14, 2019 14:57:43 GMT -6
If no snow comes, no ice should either! Send it all north then! We can deal with cold. We had our storm! We'll wait on the next one in line!
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Post by bororug on Jan 14, 2019 14:59:50 GMT -6
The real question is: Just how cold is it going to be for that Chiefs-Pats game at Arrowhead, Sunday Night? Might be brutal!
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 14:59:52 GMT -6
What are the chances the cold air gets in here sooner and Friday isn't as warm (upper 30s) as its showing now?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 15:00:01 GMT -6
It definitely looks like good potential for another possibly significant to major storm coming out a few days after this next one. And there's lots of cold air sloshing around to go with it. Uh, crap. Are you saying roughly midweek?I'm supposed to do the drive to Ohio on the 23rd (wed). Yes, roughly. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 14, 2019 15:00:17 GMT -6
Ya pure fantasy, but the 12z h 240 GEM.....OUCH!!!! That looks bad!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 15:05:06 GMT -6
The real question is: Just how cold is it going to be for that Chiefs-Pats game at Arrowhead, Sunday Night? Might be brutal! Ya its going to be brutal
Euro has wind chills at a toasty -15F for the start of the game
By the end of the game windchills are down near -30F
Actual temps should be below zero the whole game
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 15:17:44 GMT -6
Cpc hazards is lit up.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2019 15:18:53 GMT -6
Uh, crap. Are you saying roughly midweek?I'm supposed to do the drive to Ohio on the 23rd (wed). Yes, roughly. Okay thanks. Have to figure out how to do a round trip to Ohio between the two events. |
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