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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 12:27:06 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 12:28:50 GMT -6
Holds on to the def zone into Sunday evening. That's wild. I really thought the deformation zone was will OVERDONE. man, if the models stay with this solution 24 hours from now. It will be time to get really excited. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 12:30:20 GMT -6
I think this is an assumption. I'd like to see an official from the nws confirm this. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 12:32:55 GMT -6
How does the Euro look with just the WAA front side.
I don't mean just the first few hours.
All the way through the entire first phase.
There will likely be a second WAA/Ascent band behind the first associated with the second piece of energy phasing with the original snowmaker.
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Post by birddog on Jan 9, 2019 12:34:10 GMT -6
I asked earlier, is the wind going to be an issue with this storm? 8-12, 3-5 any of these numbers are not bad unless there is drifting. Out here in this neck of the woods, drifting is serious. It can be days before we could get out.
I remember the late 70's, the only way out for several days was via snowmobile. I no longer have a snowmobile!
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 9, 2019 12:34:15 GMT -6
So pretty much it’s acting like it’s normal self. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 12:34:52 GMT -6
I think this is an assumption. I'd like to see an official from the nws confirm this. Definitely. I did check the data assimilation status page and it is showing missed data points that are normally there. I also checked the skill scores and they are terrible right now. Even the CMC is beating it in almost all categories right now. That almost never happens so there could be truth to this. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:36:04 GMT -6
I asked earlier, is the wind going to be an issue with this storm? 8-12, 3-5 any of these numbers are not bad unless there is drifting. Out here in this neck of the woods, drifting is serious. It can be days before we could get out. I remember the late 70's, the only way out for several days was via snowmobile. I no longer have a snowmobile! Sunday we may see some winds pick up and gust near 20mph as the system pulls away, but other than that winds wont be a concern |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 12:37:09 GMT -6
The Euro shows 1.1" of QPF.
It has the 850mb low tracking right over St. Louis. It would be nice if that came south a hair so that we can better cash in on the deformation band.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 12:37:58 GMT -6
I asked earlier, is the wind going to be an issue with this storm? 8-12, 3-5 any of these numbers are not bad unless there is drifting. Out here in this neck of the woods, drifting is serious. It can be days before we could get out. I remember the late 70's, the only way out for several days was via snowmobile. I no longer have a snowmobile! 10-15 mph for most of the event and just after it. If the system winds up like the EURO or Canadian maybe up to 20 mph at the most. But no this will not be a January 4-5th, 2014 repeat in terms of blowing and drifting, plus the ratios are a bit lower than that storm which should allow it to settle quite well. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2019 12:38:25 GMT -6
How does the Euro look with just the WAA front side. I don't mean just the first few hours. All the way through the entire first phase. There will likely be a second WAA/Ascent band behind the first associated with the second piece of energy phasing with the original snowmaker. Has it beginning between 300-600pm Fri Less than 1" at 00Z 2-4" at 6Z 5-7" at 12Z 7-8" at 18Z 9-10" at 00z Generally adds another inch or two after that into Sunday evening
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 12:39:19 GMT -6
Indeed. It’s a beautiful picture. Solidly most everyone in metro especially south/southwest 6”+. Lollipops of 8-12” within the entire region. QPF output still 1” or more. This is unreal this close to the event. Really feeling good about my 5-8” thinking.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:40:22 GMT -6
How does the Euro look with just the WAA front side. I don't mean just the first few hours. All the way through the entire first phase. There will likely be a second WAA/Ascent band behind the first associated with the second piece of energy phasing with the original snowmaker. With just the initial push of WAA snow through Saturday morning the euro drops 6-10" across the area. Then drops a few more inches through Sunday night |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 12:42:48 GMT -6
At hour 72 the GFS has the inner most closed surface isobar over Houston. The Euro has it in Oklahoma. A little bit of a difference there...
I'm hoping the Euro ends up more like Nolan Ryan and the GFS more like Rick Ankiel. Yes, I just went there!
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Post by weatherj on Jan 9, 2019 12:45:00 GMT -6
It seems as though on most models that qpf dries up just a pinch on the IL side, except the far south.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 12:48:08 GMT -6
It seems as though on most models that qpf dries up just a pinch on the IL side, except the far south. Yes I agree. Many models are “crushing” metro stl to the Southwest as the Bullseye zone and have been now for quite some time. |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 9, 2019 12:49:42 GMT -6
It's still a solid storm across the board though, even for the IL side. Of course, we've always been told not to focus totally on qpf.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:51:49 GMT -6
It seems as though on most models that qpf dries up just a pinch on the IL side, except the far south. The euro actually has the QPF bullseye over southern IL this run, but some of that falls as rain/mix
The euro does have a mix making it as far north as the southern metro Saturday between the WAA and deformation snow
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 12:54:16 GMT -6
The Euro shows 1.1" of QPF. It has the 850mb low tracking right over St. Louis. It would be nice if that came south a hair so that we can better cash in on the deformation band. I was under the impression that the backed snow was from ascent associated with the vorticity lobe lunching through Arkansas. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 13:05:06 GMT -6
It is interesting to note, that despite the numbers… this may still only qualify as an advisory level events because of the duration of the event.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 13:08:45 GMT -6
The Euro shows 1.1" of QPF. It has the 850mb low tracking right over St. Louis. It would be nice if that came south a hair so that we can better cash in on the deformation band. I was under the impression that the backed snow was from ascent associated with the vorticity lobe lunching through Arkansas. Hmm...yeah. There's enough of a hybridization with this system that we don't want the 850mb to track too far south. It would likely take the higher PWs with it. Some of the lift may be getting initiated from vorticity advection from the north. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 13:23:59 GMT -6
It is interesting to note, that despite the numbers… this may still only qualify as an advisory level events because of the duration of the event.
I was actually thinking the same thing. Isn't it 6+" in 12 hours or 8+" in 24 hours for a warning or something like that?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 13:28:05 GMT -6
The EPS has a MEAN of 9” for the metro with a mean of nearly a dang foot centered in extreme southern Jeffco
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 13:32:34 GMT -6
Here’s some fun probabilities from the EPS:
Chance of more than 3” is 99.9%
Chance of more than 6” is 90%......99% just south of the metro
Chance of more than 12” is about 10%
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 13:34:40 GMT -6
Lol...a 99% chance of 6" of snow near the metro. Lock that in!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 13:37:30 GMT -6
That is crazy , I don’t think I can ever remember such s strong and widespread storm with such good model consistency
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 13:38:24 GMT -6
Lol...a 99% chance of 6" of snow near the metro. Lock that in! For the first time ever I think I can say “Lock it in” without being sarcastic lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 13:39:26 GMT -6
Model performance does tend to improve as the winter season progresses...like they start "figuring out" the pattern. With that being said I agree the consensus and consistency is remarkable.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 13:40:19 GMT -6
The EPS QPF mean at the airport is 0.9". The GFS deterministic is only has 0.4". The GFS is poised to either pull off a coup or bite the dust.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 9, 2019 13:47:40 GMT -6
The Springfield MO NWS is very conservative with their snow amounts, saying only 2-4". Really?
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