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Post by jmg378s on Sept 28, 2018 9:43:16 GMT -6
Did I also see that the ECMWF would produce hourly forecasts for the first 90 hours.
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 28, 2018 10:07:17 GMT -6
Anything Interesting coming up weather wise for the St. Louis Area?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 28, 2018 11:06:45 GMT -6
And here is an even more rare phenomenon taking shape. Watch the Arctic region over the next week or two. Models have been forecasting an incredibly rare warming event that will take place. The Euro has this as +4 SD event and I've even seen some model runs approaching +4.5 SD. For those that don't know SD is standard deviation. A +4 event is said to have a 1-in-10,000 chance of happening. +4.5 is 1-in-100,000 odds. So this is a very unusual once in 100yr (or higher) event.  Sure hope that pattern re-emerges during the winter season...could be a good sign. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 28, 2018 11:48:36 GMT -6
With the addition of the "off hour" runs of the EURO, things should be that much more furious around here. Are the off hour runs of the GFS still wrought with errors? IS the data used to initiate them any different than what they used to be? I only ask because I havent model surfed in quite some time. I havent had the time. I hope that the EURO "off hour" runs are as good as the regular runs. Friday is my second favorite F word! Have a great day everyone! Each "off hour" run is better than the preceding "on hour" run. For instance, the 6z gfs grades out better than the preceding 00z run. I hope this is the year we can finally put this to rest. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 28, 2018 12:14:47 GMT -6
Until RAOBs are done 4x a day, I won't buy the claims that "off hour" runs are as reliable as "on hour" runs.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 28, 2018 13:19:24 GMT -6
Any thoughts on where the moisture from Rosa will go after it gets into the Four Corners area?
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 28, 2018 17:26:35 GMT -6
I'm certainly not an expert, but keep in mind there are a lot of very reliable direct observations being assimilated from aircraft now which provide vertical soundings on takeoff/landing as well as several point observations at cruise altitude all over the globe for all model cycle times and these are filling the timing gap of RAOB. This wasn't always the case. But RAOB is still quite important, especially for medium and long range forecasting perhaps at least in part because they are the only direct observation of the stratosphere I can think of.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 28, 2018 17:48:11 GMT -6
I'm certainly not an expert, but keep in mind there are a lot of very reliable direct observations being assimilated from aircraft now which provide vertical soundings on takeoff/landing as well as several point observations at cruise altitude all over the globe for all model cycle times and these are filling the timing gap of RAOB. This wasn't always the case. But RAOB is still quite important, especially for medium and long range forecasting perhaps at least in part because they are the only direct observation of the stratosphere I can think of. True...good point. The quality of assimilation data has come a long way with these hi-res satellites and such but you can't beat real world, observed data. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 28, 2018 19:06:00 GMT -6
Any thoughts on where the moisture from Rosa will go after it gets into the Four Corners area? There probably won't be much left of Rosa after making it through the Four Corners region. But the residual vorticity and some interaction with a shortwave moving along the USA/Can border may produce some wet weather in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 29, 2018 12:54:17 GMT -6
66 degrees at 2pm can’t wait for this weather to stick around.
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Post by REB on Sept 29, 2018 13:17:38 GMT -6
66 degrees at 2pm can’t wait for this weather to stick around. I worked the Belleville Marathon from 5-9 this morning. It was nippy but I’ll take it. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 29, 2018 18:14:44 GMT -6
66 degrees at 2pm can’t wait for this weather to stick around. I worked the Belleville Marathon from 5-9 this morning. It was nippy but I’ll take it. I volunteered down on West main. Beautiful morning for it. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 29, 2018 20:34:06 GMT -6
Dear Summer,
CAN U PPPLLLLEEEAAASSEEEE GO AWAY!!!!!!
Not ready for mid to upper 80s again!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 29, 2018 21:31:05 GMT -6
Dear Summer, CAN U PPPLLLLEEEAAASSEEEE GO AWAY!!!!!! Not ready for mid to upper 80s again! Man I agree 100 percent. These last few days have been amazing and I don't want to go backwards. A hot May is one thing...a hot October is just absurd. Hopefully the big front around the 10th stays on the models. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 29, 2018 22:01:21 GMT -6
I mean, a transient upper level jet isn't all too uncommon this time of year... but I agree, I'm ready to see more days like to today into early November... then, bring on the snow and cold  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 30, 2018 3:23:06 GMT -6
Stays hot all week, through next weekend. EPS has the SE ridge in control basically the next 12-15 days. This is very annoying. Love how summer always hangs on for 8 months, and winter lasts 6 weeks.
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Post by REB on Sept 30, 2018 14:18:18 GMT -6
I guess everyone’s enjoying the outdoors before the heat sets back in.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 30, 2018 14:48:06 GMT -6
Do you all think we'll get a actual snowstorm this winter? Did we ever have a winter storm warning last year?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 30, 2018 15:26:25 GMT -6
Stays hot all week, through next weekend. EPS has the SE ridge in control basically the next 12-15 days. This is very annoying. Love how summer always hangs on for 8 months, and winter lasts 6 weeks. Massive ridge in Alaska/NW Canada, massive trough in the Western CONUS, and a big old ridge in the eastern CONUS. Ya its going to be warm awhile unless something changes. That huge ridge around Alaska could be a good sign for winter though...
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 30, 2018 19:52:02 GMT -6
Pretty amplified 5 wave pattern- should be slow moving. Don’t usually see patterns this amplified this early. May bode well this winter if it sets up favorably
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 30, 2018 20:59:47 GMT -6
Do you all think we'll get a actual snowstorm this winter? Did we ever have a winter storm warning last year? If we consider a "actual snowstorm" to be a snowfall of 6+" from a single storm (practically, though not exactly, the criteria for a winter storm warning) then historically St. Louis gets one about every two years. Some years have multiple snowstorms then there are multi year spans without any (the longest being 8 years by the way), but it averages out to once every other year. Now I know there is some skill with long range temperature and precipitation forecasts, but I doubt there is much if any skill with preseason "snowstorm" forecasting around here - though I admit I've never looked into it and I could be wrong. So, based solely on climatology I'd say our chances are 50/50. How's that for a non-committal answer? As for the second question...no, I don't recall a winter storm warning last year for anybody in the St. Louis region. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 1, 2018 8:57:38 GMT -6
Well it’s finally October, Marry Christmas everyone one lol
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 1, 2018 9:12:07 GMT -6
Jeffmw I went to the Commissary and BX yesterday. There was Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas stuff all out. That is way too many holidays out at one time.
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 1, 2018 9:33:44 GMT -6
Jeffmw I went to the Commissary and BX yesterday. There was Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas stuff all out. That is way too many holidays out at one time. Just trying to be funny. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 1, 2018 10:09:22 GMT -6
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Oct 1, 2018 10:16:16 GMT -6
I did find that funny Jeffmw.  And it's sad/funny how Hawaii has had a more recent WSW that STL. Gotta love mountains. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 1, 2018 10:44:41 GMT -6
And the warning on Feb. 24th, 2015 ended up being a bust...sort of anyway. The airport only got 3.6" of snow. You actually have to go back to Jan. 5th, 2014 to find a anything 6" or more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 1, 2018 11:13:54 GMT -6
Ok...who turned summer back on?!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 1, 2018 11:45:15 GMT -6
Could be some severe weather in the middle of the country early next week. Really stout front looks to finally push the SE ridge away.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 1, 2018 11:55:29 GMT -6
Could be some severe weather in the middle of the country early next week. Really stout front looks to finally push the SE ridge away. Yeah, I was going to post something about that. I was waiting for the 12Z Euro to come in. It actually looks like a lot of interesting whether may happen in the next 10 days...maybe even a big snowstorm for the northern states. |
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