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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2018 10:25:58 GMT -6
I think anytime after say 2pm you could expect a chance of showers or storms with a bit better chance late afternoon into the evening. NWS percents look reasonable...50-60%.
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Post by REB on Oct 6, 2018 10:35:15 GMT -6
Chris just updated on FB. It's moving quicker than expected.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 6, 2018 10:42:08 GMT -6
There's still time to wait and see how things evolve today, but I would not be surprised if the SPC extends the slight risk back to the southwest. Dewpoints are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s and with mostly clear to clears skies we should see plenty of destabilization as the front arrives around peak heating. With 30+kts of effective shear and perhaps 1500 j/kg MLCAPE that would be enough for organized severe storms. Last few runs of HRRR have been showing a lot of activity in and round the metro; the latest run showing some respectable UH tracks too. Should storms form and become severe wind appears to be the primary threat. Nailed it Slight Risk shifted into the metro with 16:30 update. Looks like a gusty/semi-severe wind threat. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 10:44:05 GMT -6
I'm seeing some pretty good cumulus with some darker scud clouds building off to my northwest. Haven't take the time to see which way they are moving yet.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2018 10:50:03 GMT -6
Yeah I'm seeing lots of cumulus congestus. Things may get going sooner rather than later.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 11:19:04 GMT -6
Now it's definitely getting much darker off to the northwest. Don't know whether it will get here or skip by just to the northwest and north
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 11:30:56 GMT -6
Starting to get a little light rain and just heard some distant thunder
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2018 11:40:17 GMT -6
the low level scud dis diving south just a click to my west.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2018 11:41:35 GMT -6
pretty impressive cloud show for october
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 6, 2018 11:47:24 GMT -6
and now thunder coming from the south.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 13:27:05 GMT -6
Had about 20 minutes of rain with some thunder. Now the sun is back out
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 6, 2018 13:50:15 GMT -6
Pouring in Festus! Just rain and slight wind, no noise!
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 6, 2018 13:57:41 GMT -6
Now there was thunder and lightning and that noise! Still pouring rain!
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 6, 2018 14:10:04 GMT -6
Line seems to be intensifying.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2018 14:35:08 GMT -6
UKMET and HWRF are aggressive with the disturbance in the Caribbean; both deepening MSLP down into the 940s. ECMWF on the other hand is much less intense in the 990s. Most of the guidance clustered around a Florida panhandle landfall.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 6, 2018 15:05:25 GMT -6
Finally quit raining after a hour! Still hear thunder and sun is out!
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 6, 2018 15:31:25 GMT -6
record high tied at lambert this afternoon @ 90*
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 6, 2018 15:40:40 GMT -6
Had about a 5 minute light shower. Nothing else. Sunny now.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 6, 2018 16:13:33 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 6, 2018 16:44:08 GMT -6
That tropical disturbance is now PTC #14.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 16:58:29 GMT -6
NHC has getting in to the western Carolinas by mid to late week. They don't really need more water refilling those rivers.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 6, 2018 17:26:22 GMT -6
More storms coming I guess from the sw! Broke the record high today I guess too! Ready for midweek cool down!
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 6, 2018 17:40:03 GMT -6
Today’s rain potential has been pretty uneventful and disappointing
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 6, 2018 17:41:48 GMT -6
The Temperatures on the Fox2 Weather app for midweek forward has got even cooler. Anyone want to comment?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2018 17:52:07 GMT -6
The Temperatures on the Fox2 Weather app for midweek forward has got even cooler. Anyone want to comment? Looks like some ideal fall weather starting Wednesday night and onward. Highs around 60 and lows around 40 |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 6, 2018 20:58:34 GMT -6
Looks like more development to our west and southwest. Is this suppose to continue through the night.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 6, 2018 21:18:20 GMT -6
Downpour with thunder and lightning as I type
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 6, 2018 23:43:00 GMT -6
Missed to the south all day... Now missing to the north. Hopes for tomorrow to get in on some storms.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 7, 2018 0:33:31 GMT -6
Here she is... my first demo reel.
I realize that some of the explanations I make are a little rough... sometimes it's more difficult to think on your feet than I originally plan for...
Constructive criticism is appreciated!
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 7, 2018 7:51:17 GMT -6
I am about to fire up the smoker to throw some smoke on some pork bellies... am I looking at rain anytime between noon and 5?
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