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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 6, 2018 6:01:43 GMT -6
After this it looks like at least a 2 week snoozefest with the Weather with Ridging aloft overhead or just to the west as Florence and the storm after it graze the east coast keep temps here toasty though not ridiculously hot but it will be drier then a bone, not a bad thing necessarily especially if we do get a major flood event from this, but sill boring from a weather fan boy perspective.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 6, 2018 6:11:46 GMT -6
Perhaps the other thing of note over the weekend besides the rain/flood threat is how cool it will be this weekend with most models showing areas that fall under the axis of heaviest rain and thickest cloud cover not even making out of the mid 60s for 2 days straight Saturday and Sunday before bouncing back to the low mid 80s Monday. Temps at night won't fall much if at all but still 60s for highs in early September is a bit impressive and more closer to Halloween (or at least Columbus Day) then just coming out of Labor Day.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 6, 2018 7:07:22 GMT -6
Looks like the heaviest axis of rainfall is shifting farther south and is largely charted to be just south of the immediate metro with southern Illinois being favored and points east as this thing really comes together. Still looks like most will see at least a couple inches, but the 5 to 8" band is now mainly for the southeastern third of the viewing area including the southern Metro but just south of the city i.e a Salem, IL to Festus, MO line and points south. Beat me by a few seconds... And there it is.... lol This is signs for the upcoming Winter. |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 6, 2018 7:32:22 GMT -6
It’s is pouring in Bonne Terre! Here we go!
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 6, 2018 7:33:11 GMT -6
NWS hasn't posted any river level forecasts yet for the Meramec river. If we get the amounts in the forecast, I am thinking we will see some big flooding again this year! This is getting to be a trend, and and it's getting old.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 6, 2018 7:52:18 GMT -6
I really wouldn't expect big flooding on the smaller rivers. The area is still mostly abnormally dry. Heaviest should fall over and north..unless it continues to trend south, keeping most of the watersheds out of the heaviest. This (probably) wont be a scenario where large areas get 8-12 inches. I would think maybe minor flooding at worst.
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40 
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Post by kkwhit on Sept 6, 2018 7:58:23 GMT -6
Anyone have thoughts on what I can expect in Columbia MO Saturday throughout the day and into the evening for the Mizzou game?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 6, 2018 8:05:19 GMT -6
I think there will be a few folks who have some big totals...that begins with this afternoon and tonight's activity. Those who get under some heavier storms before the "main show" could really rack up some impressive totals.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 6, 2018 9:35:10 GMT -6
EURO is substantially further N than the GFS with the axis of heavy rainfall...if you split the middle the 44/70 corridor is still favored for that axis with up to 6" of rainfall possible in spots.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 6, 2018 9:53:00 GMT -6
Anyone have thoughts on what I can expect in Columbia MO Saturday throughout the day and into the evening for the Mizzou game? Tailgating through the day say noon to whenever the game starts will likely be pretty rainy-- Things look to start drying up following kickoff. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 6, 2018 10:20:14 GMT -6
I'm about to see how efficient these showers will be. Do you all ever notice that not all radar returns are created equal? By that I mean that sometimes certain intensities on radar seem to in reality be much heavier than at other times and vise versa. Maybe the radar indirectly defines by relativity and that overall scale varies given the environmental factors (pwats for example).
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 6, 2018 10:45:44 GMT -6
GFS has FLORENCE approaching at NIGHT IN Long Island next Thursday and Friday with strong GALEs
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 6, 2018 11:05:59 GMT -6
Ok... NWS has posted the river forecast for the Meramec river. Doesn't look as bad as I expected really. About 9 feet at Pacific, which isnt even flood stage. How accurate are those forecasts at this point? I only run into issues if the river rises to 20 feet and have to move beehives out then. Any thought that the river will get to 20 feet from this storm??
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 11:11:49 GMT -6
GFS has FLORENCE approaching at NIGHT IN Long Island next Thursday and Friday with strong GALEs lol |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 6, 2018 11:24:47 GMT -6
I'm about to see how efficient these showers will be. Do you all ever notice that not all radar returns are created equal? By that I mean that sometimes certain intensities on radar seem to in reality be much heavier than at other times and vise versa. Maybe the radar indirectly defines by relativity and that overall scale varies given the environmental factors (pwats for example).
So good question. And you're on the right track. What's going on here is that power returned to the radar is dominated more by the size of the hydrometers rather than the number. I have to double check my weather radar book at home which has the equation in it, but if I recall correctly Z (reflectivity) has a linear relationship with the number of hydrometers; however it is related to the diameter of the hydrometers to the 6th power. In high PW environments with lower lapse rates (tall thin CAPE profiles and deep warm cloud depth) there tends to be A LOT small and medium sized drops and less hail - very typical of tropical systems. Whereas in high CAPE thunderstorms with hail and melted hail there tends to be more large hydrometers and therefore higher reflectivity. So in these tropical origin systems rain still adds up quickly because of the high number of drops even though it may not look as impressive on radar compared to our high instability thunderstorms.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 6, 2018 11:32:57 GMT -6
Ok yeah, I'm slow, but I see what you did there Snowman.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 12:13:13 GMT -6
The stuff coming up from Southern Illinois looks like it's going to least hit the east side of the Metro. Tropical downpours I've been in a couple of times. Very heavy rain, but no lightning
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 6, 2018 12:50:42 GMT -6
Is that a bow echo I see moving from southeast to northwest?
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Sept 6, 2018 12:55:37 GMT -6
So Gordon is not bringing much of it's own moisture, it's relying on the front to reactivate? Radar not impressive with the remaining low.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 6, 2018 13:06:04 GMT -6
EURO is substantially further N than the GFS with the axis of heavy rainfall...if you split the middle the 44/70 corridor is still favored for that axis with up to 6" of rainfall possible in spots. Can you say this again in 3 month but switch rainfall with snowfall |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 6, 2018 13:06:24 GMT -6
So Gordon is not bringing much of it's own moisture, it's relying on the front to reactivate? Radar not impressive with the remaining low. The phasing with the stalled frontal boundary and shortwave moving out of the plains will provide a running board for heavy rainfall...there is an extremely moist airmass streaming in ahead of the remnant low and the dynamics in play will wring that out very efficiently. |
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 6, 2018 14:41:23 GMT -6
So Gordon is not bringing much of it's own moisture, it's relying on the front to reactivate? Radar not impressive with the remaining low. The phasing with the stalled frontal boundary and shortwave moving out of the plains will provide a running board for heavy rainfall...there is an extremely moist airmass streaming in ahead of the remnant low and the dynamics in play will wring that out very efficiently. Low is deepening nicely too as it moves by... heights @ 925 drop nearly 100m. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 6, 2018 14:43:52 GMT -6
The phasing with the stalled frontal boundary and shortwave moving out of the plains will provide a running board for heavy rainfall...there is an extremely moist airmass streaming in ahead of the remnant low and the dynamics in play will wring that out very efficiently. Low is deepening nicely too as it moves by... 925 drops nearly 100m. I noticed that, the 850 low really tightens up once it starts to recurve along the baroclinic zone. Definitely a ripe setup for excessive rainfall. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 6, 2018 15:00:18 GMT -6
So yeah I was looking at this last night and the remnant low was getting tucked under the RER of an upper jet streak aiding lift and deepening.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 6, 2018 15:20:47 GMT -6
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 15:31:43 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 6, 2018 15:32:14 GMT -6
Who is building an Ark?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 15:39:19 GMT -6
Forecast for the Kaskaskia at Vandalia is near record crest Monday. Hmmm
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 6, 2018 16:02:31 GMT -6
Seeing lots of cumulus buildup Southeast of me. These hold together this evening some people are going to get dumped on pretty good. They seem to be increasing in coverage and intensity
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 6, 2018 16:26:32 GMT -6
I really think the NWS is poopooing the Meramec River too much at this time. I know it has been somewhat dry... but in my experience... rainfall totals like the ones they are forecasting...over the entire basin will have a much greater impact on river levels than those being posted. That said... if the basin ends up on the low end of the range...say 2" to 3"... then I think all will be fine. However, if we end up pushing 6" down there...that river is going to flood.
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