|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 6:00:39 GMT -6
Hi Everyone, Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river. They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit. I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage. Just make sure you find a blue shed  Is this a reference to Piotrowski last year? On a serious note, will you be streaming live? |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 6:00:44 GMT -6
Wow, UKMET and ECMWF are both showing ~48" of rain in the NC coastal areas.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 6:01:51 GMT -6
Just make sure you find a blue shed Is this a reference to Piotrowski last year? Yeah, just being funny. In all seriousness addicted2wx stay safe. That area appears to be particularly prone to surge if landfall is just to the southwest. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 6:13:41 GMT -6
Recon reporting a new eye diameter of 34nmi. CDO is expanding and storm appears to be growing larger.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Sept 11, 2018 6:16:06 GMT -6
Hi Everyone, Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river. They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit. I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage. What’s your Facebook page? |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 6:18:19 GMT -6
This may just be a part of the system expanding in size. The strength increase will likely follow later today and into tonight. Concerning that Euro shows strengthening upon approach to the coast. Euro also has worst case scenario for Wilmington, NC with incredible storm surge in the right front quadrant. Other models are north of that.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 6:34:09 GMT -6
This may just be a part of the system expanding in size. The strength increase will likely follow later today and into tonight. Concerning that Euro shows strengthening upon approach to the coast. Euro also has worst case scenario for Wilmington, NC with incredible storm surge in the right front quadrant. Other models are north of that. Yep, I agree. Still a very favorable environment for at least the next day to day and half. In fact SHIPS diagnostic has 1kt of shear with 29.3C SST in about 24 hours. |
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Sept 11, 2018 7:23:35 GMT -6
Addicted, just got back from the area after spending a week with family. Flew in from Raleigh and then drove three hours to Morehead City. Family in Newport. New Bern is right next to the water, you might not be far enough inland with the surge. Also know that it can flood behind you, you might be there awhile. Good luck and be safe! Get a shrimp burger at El's Drive in in Moorehead before you go home. Place is quirky, only takes cash but it's the bomb.
Adding IF it's still there. Btw, family is on it's way to Tennessee. They've never left before but they're leaving for this one. And there isn't much life between New Bern and Raleigh.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 8:03:59 GMT -6
Looks like the "new" eyewall is much larger and has become much more well defined over the last hour.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 11, 2018 8:33:52 GMT -6
This may just be a part of the system expanding in size. The strength increase will likely follow later today and into tonight. Concerning that Euro shows strengthening upon approach to the coast. Euro also has worst case scenario for Wilmington, NC with incredible storm surge in the right front quadrant. Other models are north of that. Yep, I agree. Still a very favorable environment for at least the next day to day and half. In fact SHIPS diagnostic has 1kt of shear with 29.3C SST in about 24 hours. That's a recipe for CAT5... Looking at the latest microwave data, the ERC looks to be nearly complete with the outer eyewall collapsing and the inner core becoming well defined again. I would say rapid intensification is possible again later today and tonight. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 11, 2018 9:59:56 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS pulling more in line with the Euro now. I'm okay with that because that's the track FV3 has been advertising for awhile now too. I'd rather the GFS be wrong than the FV3. And as you'll remember FV3 did much better with the weekend flooding event. Maybe NOAA has finally hit the nail on the head this time? One can hope.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 10:07:59 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS pulling more in line with the Euro now. I'm okay with that because that's the track FV3 has been advertising for awhile now too. I'd rather the GFS be wrong than the FV3. And as you'll remember FV3 did much better with the weekend flooding event. Maybe NOAA has finally hit the nail on the head this time? One can hope. Is FV3 available anywhere? |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 11, 2018 10:19:57 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS pulling more in line with the Euro now. I'm okay with that because that's the track FV3 has been advertising for awhile now too. I'd rather the GFS be wrong than the FV3. And as you'll remember FV3 did much better with the weekend flooding event. Maybe NOAA has finally hit the nail on the head this time? One can hope. Is FV3 available anywhere? It updates later than the GFS |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 11, 2018 11:02:00 GMT -6
Latest WPC 7-day outlook has a 15+" contour for the mountains of Virginia. They could have more than that less than 5 full days from now. I did not mean this for Virginia. I think coastal NC could see over 1 Ft easily by Saturday 8am. Possibly 20 inches already. They will have been dealing with hurricane conditions for almost 24 hour by then |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:23:21 GMT -6
I've got a friend in Charleston, SC who is trying to figure out if they should leave their house or not. They are close to the coast, 12 feet above sea level. Given the potential wobbles, she wants to leave, and I told her I'd head south, not inland SC as the rains could be significant. Her husband wants to stay.
The track has been consistently north of Charleston....what would you all do?
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 11, 2018 12:27:45 GMT -6
As a fun game try to guess where the 12Z Euro makes landfall without looking at the run. Lol...you guys won't even come close!
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 12:33:11 GMT -6
As a fun game try to guess where the 12Z Euro makes landfall without looking at the run. Lol...you guys won't even come close! ...Immediately looks at the Euro... Wtf is it doing?? Talk about a shift...it stole whatever drugs the GFS was taking the last few days and OD'd. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 11, 2018 12:44:03 GMT -6
As a fun game try to guess where the 12Z Euro makes landfall without looking at the run. Lol...you guys won't even come close! ...Immediately looks at the Euro... Wtf is it doing?? Talk about a shift...it stole whatever drugs the GFS was taking the last few days and OD'd. It said to the GFS, "I see your loop-de-loop and so I'll do you one better!". So jealous these models are... |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:46:46 GMT -6
what does the Euro say?
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:47:09 GMT -6
Should I tell my friends to stay put in Charleston?
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 12:54:20 GMT -6
If the EURO was right the entire coast from mid NC down to damn near Savannah GA would have some inundation.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 12:55:32 GMT -6
That's one model though. The general consensus prior to this run (and perhaps ultimately excluding it) would suggest no more than 2-4 ft storm surge in Charleston. Strangely enough I am very familiar with that city. My wife and I have vacationed there the last 3 summers.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Sept 11, 2018 12:56:31 GMT -6
Should I tell my friends to stay put in Charleston? No, I wouldn't tell them that.  |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 13:05:37 GMT -6
Looking at the satellite trends I think the next advisory will show decent strengthening.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 13:17:16 GMT -6
I've got a friend in Charleston, SC who is trying to figure out if they should leave their house or not. They are close to the coast, 12 feet above sea level. Given the potential wobbles, she wants to leave, and I told her I'd head south, not inland SC as the rains could be significant. Her husband wants to stay. The track has been consistently north of Charleston....what would you all do?
Charleston is currently just outside the southern edge of the NHC cone. If landfall is north of there they'd...probably...be ok. Keeping in mind that the NHC cone represents a 2/3 chance the storm will remains in the cone for the forecast time. That means 1/3 of the time it may not. I'd be keeping a very close eye on the forecasts and if there's ANY chance the storm landfalls just south of their location they MUST evacuate for their own safety. Also note that Hugo produced a 20ft surge near Charleston. And how certain are they of the 12ft elevation? I ask because if I remember right there was one story of a school shelter that was incorrectly surveyed and the occupants found themselves in a dire situation during that storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 11, 2018 13:19:45 GMT -6
Considering both the GFS and Euro are hinting she might stall out at/near the shore and do some kind of drifting down the coastline, it might be a possibility. That would be wild and horrible for those living in the area
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 11, 2018 13:20:17 GMT -6
Looking at the trends I'm thinking that a Landfall between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is likely the best solution given that the ridge to the north is/will be strengthening as the system moves west and a trough entering the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies shifting east raises the ridge. Charleston should remain on the southern side of the eyewall but areas to the north including Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, NC are in for a tough time. So not quite a Hugo but rains could more then make up for it. South and west of Savannah, GA should be a safe bet to evacuate to.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 11, 2018 13:22:05 GMT -6
Should I tell my friends to stay put in Charleston? I wouldn't risk it, personally. There's a chance the ridge could be stronger than modeled and the storm could shift further S. Even a short-lived wobble or well timed ERC could make a difference in the eventual track. If I were in Charleston I would be planning on heading towards Jacksonville. |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 11, 2018 13:41:28 GMT -6
That's one model though. The general consensus prior to this run (and perhaps ultimately excluding it) would suggest no more than 2-4 ft storm surge in Charleston. Strangely enough I am very familiar with that city. My wife and I have vacationed there the last 3 summers. I sent you a private message |
|
davem
Weather Weenie
Posts: 9 
|
Post by davem on Sept 11, 2018 14:45:18 GMT -6
Given Dave's longevity, I doubt he would be displeased with this criticism. That said, since he missed this one, perhaps it's a prelude of things to come. Follow this thought: He said not to worry about the tropics. Wrong. He said that this winter won't be that great for the snowbunnies. Maybe Wrong, too? I'm just being sassy. I was leaning to a snowy forecast compared to recent years. Relative to solar cycle, we tend to have our greatest winters immediately after minima, and immediately after El Nino. We are not yet at minima, but this solar cycle was weak. There was also an uptick in volcanic activity and we rarely have 3 consecutive winters of well below 30 year average snow. I'm still graphing out trends in teleconnections, so I'm not quite ready to commit yet. I think October will be telling. The one thing I am concerned about - technically last winter was quite active with extensive snowcover across the conus. It really just missed St. Louis, but we were in a drought. I think the thing that helps us this year is that we are knocking down the plains drought. El Nino will take care of the Texas drought. If I had to bet right now, my money would be on the Farmers Almanac vs Old Farmers Almanac. Sure, we may see something in between, but if I had to choose between the two...
now that all said, I do believe we are within 2 years of seeing a blockbuster winter. Even if it doesn't happen this winter, I think we will see things more favorable for snow. What will make this winter hard to predict is that we won't see the cold that we saw last year. We will rely on bowling balls generating their own cold. I think El Nino may be displaced further west than your typical El Ninos and this will allow the Jetstream to dip into the lower Midwest, and if the dip is favorable, will allow for the flow to slow enough to allow healthy storms to develop. I would be even more confident if we were just a bit further south - I think southern areas of the stl forecast area and northern areas of the pah area may get several significant snowstorms, but again, let's see what October holds in store for us.
Climatologically speaking, it seems to me that we are on the cusp of a period of colder and snowier winters than we've become accustomed to. I was never excited about the last two winters - 2 years ago I predicted 6 inches of snow, and last year I predicted 9 inches of snow. We ended up well below my predictions both years, but a lot of people were excited about last winter. I've always been keeping this winter or next winter under my hat as something to watch in terms of a blockbuster winter. Solar cycles, also, seem to more readily impact the weather patterns in large land masses such as across the globe, and tend to lag another year behind for North America. That could temper my "outlook" for this winter, but I think right now, we should see at least normal snowfall.
|
|
