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Post by jmg378s on Sept 8, 2018 21:02:58 GMT -6
Looks like potentially 6+ feet of rain over the outer banks and costal NC from Florence that would make Harvey look like childs play. A bit premature to say that...the gfs which shows it stalling and spinning would produce this, but a system hanging off the east coast for days on end is extraordinarily unlikely. Much easier for a storm to park along the dead zones near the gulf. Yeah I agree with you it'd be unusual for a storm to stall out here and probably won't happen (at least not to that extent), but look at all the high pressure almost surrounding the storm...it has no where to go...at least temporarily. And that weak trough over the CONUS I pointed out earlier this morning is so pathetic it isn't playing much of a role at all.  |
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jeeper
Wishcaster
Rosewood Heights, IL
Posts: 183 
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Post by jeeper on Sept 8, 2018 21:06:52 GMT -6
2" 7/10ths in the accurite on the deck...glad I cleaned out the gutters!
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Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 8, 2018 22:07:23 GMT -6
A bit premature to say that...the gfs which shows it stalling and spinning would produce this, but a system hanging off the east coast for days on end is extraordinarily unlikely. Much easier for a storm to park along the dead zones near the gulf. Yeah I agree with you it'd be unusual for a storm to stall out here and probably won't happen (at least not to that extent), but look at all the high pressure almost surrounding the storm...it has no where to go...at least temporarily. And that weak trough over the CONUS I pointed out earlier this morning is so pathetic it isn't playing much of a role at all. I'm no expert, but the one part of the GFS and similar runs that I do not get/believe is that it would stall right on/near the coast like that and not significantly weaken. Now, even a weaker storm could still produce historic rains if it sits there for a couple days, but I just can't buy into it sitting there as a major hurricane for days and don't know if it does weaken does that change any of the surrounding steering patterns. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 8, 2018 22:17:14 GMT -6
Lol, 00z gfs has a Cat 5 hurricane stationary from hours 138-162 off the coast of North Carolina before a slight wobble towards the coast at hour 168.
I don't buy it, but interesting to look at.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 8, 2018 22:25:02 GMT -6
The storm also like doubles in size over that time...
Probably just look at the euro for now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 8, 2018 22:28:22 GMT -6
Lol, 00z gfs has a Cat 5 hurricane stationary from hours 138-162 off the coast of North Carolina before a slight wobble towards the coast at hour 168. I don't buy it, but interesting to look at. Haha I was about to post the same thing. Of all the crazy things the gfs has EVER shown in the medium range, this has to take the cake. How is that even a mathematical solution!? |
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 8, 2018 23:21:50 GMT -6
What a beautiful night... nice breeze, mist- fall.
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johnboman
Weather Weenie
South St. Louis City ( Near The Hill )
Posts: 11
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Post by johnboman on Sept 9, 2018 1:16:56 GMT -6
Had 3.98" in South st. Louis City near Kingshighway & Arsenal
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 9, 2018 5:27:10 GMT -6
Yeah I agree with you it'd be unusual for a storm to stall out here and probably won't happen (at least not to that extent), but look at all the high pressure almost surrounding the storm...it has no where to go...at least temporarily. And that weak trough over the CONUS I pointed out earlier this morning is so pathetic it isn't playing much of a role at all. I'm no expert, but the one part of the GFS and similar runs that I do not get/believe is that it would stall right on/near the coast like that and not significantly weaken. Now, even a weaker storm could still produce historic rains if it sits there for a couple days, but I just can't buy into it sitting there as a major hurricane for days and don't know if it does weaken does that change any of the surrounding steering patterns. Oh absolutely, that part of the GFS is unrealistic for sure. It doesn't update the ocean state based on what's going on above...for example it doesn't account for upwelling. And the GFS is notorious for over deepending cyclones and/or maintaining intensity unrealistically because of this. |
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Post by birddog on Sept 9, 2018 8:24:12 GMT -6
I was glad to see the swing and miss on the rainfall totals they had painted over my area. My total was .86, a little short of the 6-8 forecasted. Kinda reminds me of the last few winters! My thoughts are with those that did get those totals.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 9, 2018 11:40:20 GMT -6
on friday, when i was driving during the evening rush, i went from torrential rain to dry in under a quarter mile. so i expect there will be alot of variation in rainfall totals. the forecast did well and verified as far as im concerned. as far as flood warning vs flash flood warning...2 different perils in my mind.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 9, 2018 11:40:23 GMT -6
I'm not really sure when this was added but apparently the weather.us site now has the UKMET in 6 hour intervals out to 144 hours. That'll be nice for tracking all the winter storms that will pop up on models and then self destruct this year.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 9, 2018 11:52:46 GMT -6
I'm not really sure when this was added but apparently the weather.us site now has the UKMET in 6 hour intervals out to 144 hours. That'll be nice for tracking all the winter storms that will pop up on models and then self destruct this year. Is that the one listed as "Global Britain Standard?" |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 9, 2018 12:20:52 GMT -6
Nice. Yeah that's the Britain option for sure. Now I can scrap that crappy HFIP TCGEN site which has been very spotty with the UKMET lately.
By the way, has Florence landfalling in NC as an intense hurricane, stalling, dumping like 30+" of rain, and it's not even done before the model ends.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 9, 2018 13:01:45 GMT -6
If I was anywhere between Charleston and Virginia Beach I would be very on edge. Center of cone would be direct hit on Wilmington as of right now. Seems we are in an active cycle of the tropics after a very slow (for the most part) 2007-2016.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 9, 2018 13:06:07 GMT -6
I have many family members in South Carolina and own a time share in Myrtle Beach..... I'm not liking this storm one bit
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Post by jeepers on Sept 9, 2018 13:14:01 GMT -6
Just got back from a family funeral in Newport, NC a week ago. Sister, niece and grand niece live there. Another niece and her family live in Va Beach. No one there is thrilled about this.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 9, 2018 14:35:06 GMT -6
EURO shows landfall in NC as a CAT3 hurricane and then stalling inland as it gets caught under the ridge dumping catestrophic rainfall amounts across the mountain range. Don't have a good feeling about this one...
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 9, 2018 14:39:25 GMT -6
It's pretty obvious Florence will stall as steering currents collapse. Question is when does that happen. Does it happen before landfall therefore saving the coast a landfall and huge rains further inland? Or does it stall inland after a landfall and cause freakish amounts of rain and flooding?
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 9, 2018 14:47:45 GMT -6
Yeah- flooding offshore is better than flooding onshore
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 9, 2018 16:15:59 GMT -6
18z gfs finally catches up with euro...
Would be unreal flooding if it stalls over North Carolina.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 9, 2018 16:35:29 GMT -6
18z gfs finally catches up with euro... Would be unreal flooding if it stalls over North Carolina. GFS has been playing catchup with the EURO for days...and some of the runs have been flat out laughable! There's no reason for the ridge to weaken like it was showing...actually the opposite with it strengthening as a deep trof develops across the NW US. The EURO has been all over this. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 9, 2018 17:33:49 GMT -6
If you have 15 minutes to kill here’s a really good video about Florence and the other tropical systems
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 9, 2018 17:58:58 GMT -6
Looks like a little eye is developing in Florence. We may see some extreme intensification over the next 24 hours.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 9, 2018 19:09:36 GMT -6
If you have 15 minutes to kill here’s a really good video about Florence and the other tropical systems Man the tropics are ALIVE!!! |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 9, 2018 20:19:28 GMT -6
Well if that is an eye popping out then one thing is certain...Florence is STILL not gaining any latitude.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 9, 2018 20:38:49 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 9, 2018 20:46:35 GMT -6
Looks like we have an eye.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 9, 2018 20:51:45 GMT -6
Still an open eyewall but trying to close off and the outflow looks well developed. Should steadily deepen now...
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 9, 2018 21:02:21 GMT -6
Still an open eyewall but trying to close off and the outflow looks well developed. Should steadily deepen now... With that outflow- the wind field may get very large |
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