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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2018 10:13:01 GMT -6
About 1.9" here in U town. Meh.
Definitely looks like Florence is an increasing risk for the east coast late next week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2018 10:20:04 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS just misses NC this run, has pressure down under 910.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 8, 2018 10:29:44 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS just misses NC this run, has pressure down under 910. It does a fun loop...would be one hell of a track to watch. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2018 10:39:37 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS just misses NC this run, has pressure down under 910. It does a fun loop...would be one hell of a track to watch. Yeah that would be interesting. Also has it growing in size significantly and staying intense. East coasters would be very nervous. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 8, 2018 10:45:00 GMT -6
It does a fun loop...would be one hell of a track to watch. Yeah that would be interesting. Also has it growing in size significantly and staying intense. East coasters would be very nervous. Canadian is very compact and drives it right into South Carolina. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 8, 2018 10:45:53 GMT -6
One trend I have noticed over the past several months is that models have consistently underestimated the strength of ridges...that would explain why many models were too far north with the QPF maxima with Gordon and why the recurve idea with Florence has pretty well gone out the window. Might be something to keep in mind as we head into the cool season...
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 10:47:00 GMT -6
There is a fairly absurd gradient in St Clair County work goes from 3 in to over 9 in from east to west across the Belleville area. That could account for why we're not seeing an actual ground report over 7 in there
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 8, 2018 10:47:31 GMT -6
Belleville really cashed out on this one. Radar estimates that around 10" has fallen on the west end with a general 4 to 8 for much of the remainder of the county of St. Clair. If only it was 3 months later it would almost be 1982 all over again.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2018 10:48:07 GMT -6
ICON recurves
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 8, 2018 10:49:50 GMT -6
Yeah that would be interesting. Also has it growing in size significantly and staying intense. East coasters would be very nervous. Canadian is very compact and drives it right into South Carolina. GEM is a Hugo for sure with only a different approach vector farther north, but same result. |
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Post by rb1108 on Sept 8, 2018 10:53:34 GMT -6
Is it true that the mountains in the Western US are getting snow already much earlier than usual? There was some talk about this on a video, which they said further supported their prediction that the coming winter is going to be very cold and snowy for North America as a whole.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 8, 2018 10:56:39 GMT -6
Canadian is very compact and drives it right into South Carolina. GEM is a Hugo for sure with only a different approach vector farther north, but same result. UKMET looks like landfall somewhere around NC/SC. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 8, 2018 11:01:19 GMT -6
One trend I have noticed over the past several months is that models have consistently underestimated the strength of ridges...that would explain why many models were too far north with the QPF maxima with Gordon and why the recurve idea with Florence has pretty well gone out the window. Might be something to keep in mind as we head into the cool season... Yeah, that was a big problem with Irma last year. Ridging was under-modeled for almost the entire track. |
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Post by REB on Sept 8, 2018 11:02:33 GMT -6
4.5" and for now it is NOT raining.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 8, 2018 11:05:11 GMT -6
GEM is a Hugo for sure with only a different approach vector farther north, but same result. UKMET looks like landfall somewhere around NC/SC. Yeah looks right on the border at hr 144. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:06:52 GMT -6
4.5" and for now it is NOT raining. Out of curiosity exactly where in Belleville |
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Post by REB on Sept 8, 2018 11:08:11 GMT -6
4.5" and for now it is NOT raining. Out of curiosity exactly where in Belleville 1 mile from SWIC |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Sept 8, 2018 11:10:09 GMT -6
out running some errands, and it feels like mid-October. In other words, awesome.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:12:46 GMT -6
The difference in Belleville for under 7 to over 9 in is probably under a mile in some spots
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Post by REB on Sept 8, 2018 11:13:43 GMT -6
The difference in Belleville for under 7 to over 9 in is probably under a mile in some spots my sister said she had 7" last night. West end. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:14:22 GMT -6
Out of curiosity exactly where in Belleville 1 mile from SWIC I hate to laugh but I must. Which direction? With the extreme variations I'm seeing over Belleville I'm trying to get a good idea if these are true |
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Post by REB on Sept 8, 2018 11:18:13 GMT -6
I have a Davis Vantage Vue in an open area in my back yard. I am one mile west from the driveway of SWIC. Sister is off of 74th street.She said 7 inches at 2 a.m. She has a regular in the yard rain gauge.
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Post by RyanD on Sept 8, 2018 11:21:37 GMT -6
Looks like around 6" fell here overnight which is insane! Had to pump the pool forever. I wish I had closed it now because I won't be swimming anymore this season. I've never seen this much rain overnight.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 8, 2018 11:21:59 GMT -6
I'll praise the NWS when they deserve it, but not having a FF warning for St. Clair County was a swing and a miss. Not just a "swing under a fastball down the middle" swing and a miss, but a "Tyler O'Neill fastball swing at a curveball 18 inches outside" swing and a miss.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:25:20 GMT -6
I'll praise the NWS when they deserve it, but not having a FF warning for St. Clair County was a swing and a miss. Not just a "swing under a fastball down the middle" swing and a miss, but a "Tyler O'Neill fastball swing at a curveball 18 inches outside" swing and a miss. No kidding |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:26:19 GMT -6
I have a Davis Vantage Vue in an open area in my back yard. I am one mile west from the driveway of SWIC. Sister is off of 74th street.She said 7 inches at 2 a.m. She has a regular in the yard rain gauge. WOW, 7 in at 2 a.m.? Can't wait to hear an update. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 8, 2018 11:28:30 GMT -6
1.83" KFAM
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 8, 2018 11:28:44 GMT -6
I have a Davis Vantage Vue in an open area in my back yard. I am one mile west from the driveway of SWIC. Sister is off of 74th street.She said 7 inches at 2 a.m. She has a regular in the yard rain gauge. Your total matches up with the National Weather Service Doppler well |
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woogie
Weather Weenie
west end of Belleville
Posts: 40 
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Post by woogie on Sept 8, 2018 11:29:43 GMT -6
ok, had time to check the rain gauge between rounds of shop vaccing. Ours only goes to 7 and it was filled to the brim. basement is flooding and the neighbor lost his retaing wall and is about to lose part of his driveway into our yard. We have never had this musch water in the basement or standing in the yard. The pool was overflowing and 2 of our fish ponds were also.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 8, 2018 11:30:42 GMT -6
From St. Clair County EMA: Below is a list of roads we are aware are closed at this time due to flooding -US 50 at Belleville St in Lebanon -Columbia Quarry at Bluff -State art 13 In Marissa -State Rt 158 between Millstadt and Belleville -State Rt 13 at Sherwood Farm (edit...Shirwin) -4300blk Knab Rd -US 50 at Silver Creek -State Rt 157 at Foley -State St at I 255 -State Rt 161 at Old State Rt 158 -6800blk Old Collinsville Rd -State Rt 159 at Lakeview Memorial -Central Park at Hartmann -Baldwin at Schaller -400 blk Weatherstone -Concordia at State Rt 163 -6800 Old St Louis Rd. -S 11th St.
NOTE: some of those are now open
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