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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Sept 7, 2018 11:14:11 GMT -6
I'm thinkin an inch at best out here in central MO, good thing they dumped water out of LOTO.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 7, 2018 11:27:54 GMT -6
I'm thinkin an inch at best out here in central MO, good thing they dumped water out of LOTO. I've had almost 3/4 at the house already. Snow will travel to the ends of the earth to avoid my house. Rain...no such luck. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Sept 7, 2018 12:11:55 GMT -6
I'm thinkin an inch at best out here in central MO, good thing they dumped water out of LOTO. I've had almost 3/4 at the house already. Snow will travel to the ends of the earth to avoid my house. Rain...no such luck. We have yet to see a drop of rain, it's all been North. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 7, 2018 12:15:03 GMT -6
I know it's computer generated, but the river forecast for the Meramec at Pacific has gone from 8.5 feet down to about a 2 foot rise now.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Sept 7, 2018 12:40:36 GMT -6
I know it's computer generated, but the river forecast for the Meramec at Pacific has gone from 8.5 feet down to about a 2 foot rise now. They actually are not automated or they would be issued year round. So guessing they are expecting significantly less than before. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Sept 7, 2018 12:56:20 GMT -6
HRRR says midnight before St Louis sees any real rain. Also seems to be over cooking compared to current radar, which I think it's known for.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 13:03:42 GMT -6
This will probably end up being one of those systems like we see in the winter that doesn't pan out to earlier forecasts, and makes the ill-informed public distrust the weather forecasters, without trying to listen and understand how things change as we approach events. Makes me crazy when people act that way.
It appears Florence will be a huge story next week. Its looking like a matter of intensity at landfall now as opposed to whether or not a landfall will occur.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 7, 2018 13:07:44 GMT -6
This will probably end up being one of those systems like we see in the winter that doesn't pan out to earlier forecasts, and makes the ill-informed public distrust the weather forecasters, without trying to listen and understand how things change as we approach events. Makes me crazy when people act that way. It appears Florence will be a huge story next week. Its looking like a matter of intensity at landfall now as opposed to whether or not a landfall will occur. Most of my co-workers got a rain day today. It's days like this that will cause us to work in the rain next time. |
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Post by mchafin on Sept 7, 2018 13:09:19 GMT -6
STG - I wouldn't say that about Flo. Just the other day, GFS had her spinning around before heading out to sea. Given our 4-6" is now a 1-2" (as indicated on current models, I wouldn't put much stock into anything right now.
Too soon to throw that out there? The "don't trust the models" post?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 13:16:20 GMT -6
STG - I wouldn't say that about Flo. Just the other day, GFS had her spinning around before heading out to sea. Given our 4-6" is now a 1-2" (as indicated on current models, I wouldn't put much stock into anything right now. Too soon to throw that out there? The "don't trust the models" post? Never too soon lol. I'm just saying the EURO has been showing this trend and it seems like one of those situations where the GFS is playing catch up. Having those two show it is concerning. |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 7, 2018 13:20:20 GMT -6
Haven't gotten a drop yet.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 7, 2018 14:01:42 GMT -6
Dynamics are impressive as this approaches later tonight/Saturday morning... Models still shows ~100m falls at 850 & 925.
There will be some impressive rains around the area. Still think from Rolla and points east along 44.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 7, 2018 14:20:54 GMT -6
As others have said the majority of this rain is going to come tonight into tomorrow. Just a quick glance of the 18z NAM confirms the going forecast.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 7, 2018 14:24:18 GMT -6
Frost advisories for parts of Northern New England. Sign of the changing seasons
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 7, 2018 15:02:34 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Sept 7, 2018 15:17:36 GMT -6
Storms popping around Belleville incredibly efficient rainmakers.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Sept 7, 2018 15:31:34 GMT -6
Chris showed the NAM on his Facebook video and basically said this is stupid.
Man am I glad I trust Chris or I would be freaking out.
Good job Chris(as always) acknowledging the model(the one model some people on internet will focus on) and explaining the why it’s wrong.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 7, 2018 15:37:00 GMT -6
Fire up grill, it pours.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 7, 2018 15:38:57 GMT -6
Storms popping around Belleville incredibly efficient rainmakers. Wont take many of these to pile the inches up |
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Post by dschreib on Sept 7, 2018 15:54:49 GMT -6
Storms popping around Belleville incredibly efficient rainmakers. Wont take many of these to pile the inches up It was a speck of a storm on the west end, but it was dumping water out of the sky. East end of town was sunny and dry. Dry at home, for the time being. I might try to mow for the 6,000th time this year before it hits. Doesn't look like it'll be too long. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 7, 2018 16:01:49 GMT -6
I've seen a lot of cumulus blow-ups last few days. I'm looking at one back towards St Louis area and it's got an anvil on it. That thing is way tall
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 7, 2018 16:10:34 GMT -6
Can still see stuff developing. Things are getting really active
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 7, 2018 16:25:29 GMT -6
It's showtime folks. Watching all this stuff develop as I come in from the East it's pretty incredible. I saw what appeared to be a gust front moving through St Clair County on radar. I think that's starting to kick up more development
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 7, 2018 16:55:46 GMT -6
Had to post this.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 7, 2018 17:24:08 GMT -6
It has arrived in Festus! Coming down hard! Go Cards!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2018 17:25:36 GMT -6
System is really starting to get its act together now...right on que!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 7, 2018 17:25:58 GMT -6
I think we are hard up for some weather. I'm checking in the forum with roughly the same frequency as when we are on a winter storm system.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 7, 2018 17:34:22 GMT -6
Wind has picked up considerably out of the NE...a sure sign of a deepening system.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Sept 7, 2018 17:56:51 GMT -6
Man, 3 inches already by roll per nws. May be interesting night after all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 7, 2018 18:00:15 GMT -6
I think we are hard up for some weather. I'm checking in the forum with roughly the same frequency as when we are on a winter storm system. I started looking at TropicalTidbits again this week. I stare at Lake Michigan longing for snow lol It's almost time. |
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