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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 18, 2018 5:18:32 GMT -6
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Post by birddog on Jul 18, 2018 6:24:09 GMT -6
Leaving for Waterloo IA tomorrow (Thur) AM. Are we going to be heading straight into the belly of the beast?
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jul 18, 2018 8:55:45 GMT -6
Monday Morning River Fog Was Pretty Neat Heading Into Downtown Very Thick But Stuck Close To The River.   |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 18, 2018 10:32:37 GMT -6
i.imgur.com/7KqapVf.pngAbsolutely cherry picking this one... but interesting to see the wind shear/instability potential... MAYBE we'll get at least a marginal outlook at noon?...
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 10:34:18 GMT -6
The SPC continues to keep Thursday as a marginal risk. However, the 12Z GFS is suggesting that afternoon convection may have more coverage further south where instability is likely to be higher than originally thought. Last night's Euro (and the runs prior) was pretty bearish on convective activity in Missouri and southern Illinois so we'll have to see if it wants to change it's tune this morning. But, even if it doesn't I wouldn't immediately throw all of my eggs in the Euro basket (or any one particular model) and assume we're in the clear. The big picture is still the same. There is an impressive impulse of energy moving into the area so if storms do kick off south of the MO/IA border they could go severe quickly. And based on the depiction of the convection on both the Euro and GFS I'd say discrete/isolated supercells are a real possibility. That would also make sense from a kinematic perspective as well given the amount of wind shear that is predicted to overrun the airmass. Like jmg my gut also tells me that a vigorous July synoptic event like this doesn't just pass through as a marginal risk. I think someone in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois is going to see a round of severe thunderstorms. That's not to say I'm immediately dismissing the idea that this could end up being a null event.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 18, 2018 10:38:19 GMT -6
Amazing rainfall this morning, going to be some serious stream flooding in the ozarks. 6" amounts showing up around the lake already.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 10:45:26 GMT -6
Absolutely cherry picking this one... but interesting to see the wind shear/instability potential... MAYBE we'll get at least a marginal outlook at noon?... The 12Z GFS is considerably further south than the 0Z run in regards to the synoptic features. And like I said, given the kinetic energy associated with the system it seems unlikely that the entirety of the middle of the country can skirt by with nothing more than a marginal risk. Of course, if it's one thing we're all used to here in the midwest it is null events so who knows. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 10:48:21 GMT -6
By the way, if we witnessed a huge change in the positioning of the synoptic features like what we have right now with the 0Z vs 12Z GFS this close to an event during a winter storm heads would explode.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2018 10:58:30 GMT -6
Id be willing to bet some good money that we see some severe weather tomorrow evening/night in Missouri
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 18, 2018 11:29:29 GMT -6
Rather conditional setup for tomorrow. Neutral 500mb height tendencies through the day and evening tomorrow does imply a lack of robust large scale ascent this far removed from the upper low passage. So global models being stingy with convection in our area is not surprising. It's going to come down to how much lift can be generated in the synoptic cool front / warm front / wind shift zones. Or perhaps just as important the ability for outflow boundaries, if there are any, to act as trigger points (maybe even enhancing local helicity). If something does get going the CAPE/shear combo easily supports severe or even significant severe. I'd lean towards supercells being the primary storm mode given the weakish ascent and shear vector orientation. And, not to be taken verbatim, but the 3kNAM was simulating a couple south moving supercells in mid-MO tomorrow with some real nasty UH tracks. Storms probably won't be for everybody though...and may not happen anyway.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 11:31:46 GMT -6
I'm going to beat the dead horse here, but the more I think about it that 12Z GFS run is very anomalous. That low goes from moving northeast as it makes the transition from the LER of the southern flow (in the midwest) to the RER of the northern flow (in Canada) to now moving southeast and it stays fully locked onto the LER of the southern flow. That is a HUGE change and could have substantial impacts on the forecast for Thursday and Friday.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 11:40:24 GMT -6
The SPC did make rather large changes to the new D2 outlook. A slight risk has been added for areas around the MO/IA/IL border. They mention sparse coverage in northern MO due to lack of synoptic scale ascent, but if storms do initiate in this region they will be discrete and isolated supercells capable of wind, hail, and possible tornadoes.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2018 12:03:12 GMT -6
Ya that's a big change to the Day 2 outlook. Looks like once again overnight convection tonight will play a large role in what happens tomorrow
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 18, 2018 12:13:42 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 18, 2018 12:20:54 GMT -6
Ya that's a big change to the Day 2 outlook. Looks like once again overnight convection tonight will play a large role in what happens tomorrow Yeah, like having no SVR probs in Missouri to covering nearly the entire state. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2018 15:55:01 GMT -6
Interesting tidbit from the AFD
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2018 17:25:58 GMT -6
Often times you'll see the SPC carve out their risk outlooks such that they closely match the SREF. So naturally this must be making them want to pound their heads on their desks. This is for tomorrow afternoon and overnight.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 18, 2018 18:42:52 GMT -6
That is actually pretty close to what I drew up yesterday... and what I have in the works for this evening's 9, 10 and 11.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 18, 2018 21:49:36 GMT -6
Still looks interesting tomorrow and Friday.
I am hopefull for some isolated and photogenic storms tomorrow. Could be nothing...but may be something.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 18, 2018 23:10:49 GMT -6
Saw Dave put on fb...station has decided not to do long range forecasts anymore....but Dave will start a new facebook page and will post long range info there.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 19, 2018 6:10:26 GMT -6
Appears the Accu-weather forums will be shutting down within the week due to costs and 'declining' usage which many on there seem to suggest the opposite but are likely just using it as an excuse to shut it down for costs sake indicating that weather outlet might be in financial trouble even if only modest. This has been a sad month for me as a weather enthusiast with Dave retiring and now the loss of one of my main weather forums which I love to read especially in regards to the long range.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 6:38:27 GMT -6
Getting some light showers this morning...finally. A little lightning and thunder along with a few 15-20 mph wind gusts. Glad to see a few more showers lining up that may get us.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2018 6:48:07 GMT -6
The SPC went with an enhanced risk in the Ohio River valley for tomorrow. For today a blend of the global models (GFS and ECMWF) and storm scale models especially the HRRR and HRRRE suggest the area along the MO/IA border as having the highest odds of severe weather. Tornado probabilities look to be on the low side, but if we do see a report it is more likely to be somewhere in the MO/IA/IL border area where there is a better overlap of low level ingredients for tornadogenesis. I can envision these storms consolidating in the evening and overnight and sagging south and possibly affecting the metro area. It's always possible a lone cell makes it's way around here anytime after noon today as well.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 19, 2018 7:09:13 GMT -6
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Post by jeepers on Jul 19, 2018 7:11:54 GMT -6
Saw Dave put on fb...station has decided not to do long range forecasts anymore....but Dave will start a new facebook page and will post long range info there. For the women here, you know how you have this habit of buying the same classic lipstick color and that is the one that the powers that be decide to discontinue? It's been around forever, goes with almost everything, but instead, some erudite panel somewhere that doesn't use lipstick decides that the trendy new thing is the way to go? Thank you Dave, from those of us who really appreciate your efforts. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2018 7:13:34 GMT -6
That blob of precipitation in north central MO looks pretty healthy. That may help stabilize the atmosphere in central MO and maybe even closer to home if it makes it over here.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 19, 2018 8:11:59 GMT -6
1.14 inches in st.peters finally rain lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 8:17:04 GMT -6
That blob of precipitation in north central MO looks pretty healthy. That may help stabilize the atmosphere in central MO and maybe even closer to home if it makes it over here. And looks to be expanding and intensifying a bit, too. Hopefully it will hang together as it moves this way |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 19, 2018 8:19:38 GMT -6
1.14 inches in st.peters finally rain lol I've gotten some but I don't think north eastern St. Peters has gotten that much. But we'll take it. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2018 8:47:57 GMT -6
That blob of precipitation in north central MO looks pretty healthy. That may help stabilize the atmosphere in central MO and maybe even closer to home if it makes it over here. And looks to be expanding and intensifying a bit, too. Hopefully it will hang together as it moves this way That's heading down to the lake. We will have to wait and see if we can get something later afternoon/tonight
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