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Post by ams3389 on Jul 23, 2018 0:26:33 GMT -6
They new the storm was coming. They changed routes. They have a a land and water driver. When they switch they call back to base letting them know they’re getting ready to splash down...they get an all clear... and go from there. Who ever gave them the go plus captains judgement is to me what’s at question here. I think it would be a shame if the duck boats don’t continue due to this.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 4:08:57 GMT -6
They new the storm was coming. They changed routes. They have a a land and water driver. When they switch they call back to base letting them know they’re getting ready to splash down...they get an all clear... and go from there. Who ever gave them the go plus captains judgement is to me what’s at question here. I think it would be a shame if the duck boats don’t continue due to this. Two issues here. Why they were out there and the safety of the vehicle itself. Number two was ignored in 1999 when one of these sunk without a storm. That needs to be addressed before I would think they go on. They can sink. An emergency protocol, that works, needs to be developed. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 5:14:57 GMT -6
Since I've already heard they tried to beat the storm I believe this is probably what happened. They were quite aware and played amateur meteorologist and just looked at the heavy precipitation. They figured that was the danger of the storm and the only danger of the storm. Gust fronts look pretty innocent on radar to somebody who doesn't know. JMO
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 5:18:15 GMT -6
The new pop-up ad on my mobile device is a pain. I hit the X and the graphics of the ad disappear but a black box remains
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 23, 2018 6:52:52 GMT -6
Some people are already seeing ads on Facebook from ambulance chasing lawyers "did you lose a loved one in the Branson duck boat accident? We can get you money!" or something something similar.
We knew there would be law suits coming. But do the lawyers ~have~ to live up to the worst of the negative stereotypes?
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Jul 23, 2018 7:01:38 GMT -6
Bruce, I dont expect everyone to have a meteorologist or even have the knowledge, but erroring on the side of extreme caution has to be the rule when you are in charge of the safety of others. Ive heard some mention the boat may have already left before the warning was issued. That's fine...but then you turn the thing around the minute the warning is issued. If they had no way of receiving that warning out on the water....then that is a HUGE problem. Those are definitely things that investigators will be looking into. Agreed - always error on the side of caution. I've ridden the Ducks multiple times and the last time, I was able to Facetime my great-niece "driving" the duck out on the lake for her grandmother so there's cellular reception. There should have been phones sounding off like crazy when that warning was issued. Also, if I remember correctly, they have radios in the vehicles and they checked in with someone before entering the water. Phones don’t go off for severe thunderstorm warnings, which this was. They will for Tornado Watnings or Flash Flood. I wish that they did, but people would become immune to it or turn them off. I know it’s annoying when I get woken up at 3am due to a flash flood warning, but I certainly don’t want to miss the Tornado Warning if it were to get issued. This is completely on the company and operators sadly. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 23, 2018 8:11:13 GMT -6
why do I keep reading the words "very little warning"? That is untrue if my information is correct.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 8:55:16 GMT -6
Seems I'm not getting that annoying pop-up anymore. That's nice
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 23, 2018 9:27:39 GMT -6
Just got back from a vacation of which part was spent in the Great Smoky Mountains. At the highest peak I had a temp of 62. That felt amazing and even a bit cold. Was nice to come back to an easy to take week temp wise here considering the time of year. The NW flow is alive and well and hopefully can carry us through the next month. We have had some short hot stretches but this has no means been a terribly hot summer.
I can't help but wonder if this pattern is a preview for the upcoming winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 23, 2018 10:25:38 GMT -6
Just got back from a vacation of which part was spent in the Great Smoky Mountains. At the highest peak I had a temp of 62. That felt amazing and even a bit cold. Was nice to come back to an easy to take week temp wise here considering the time of year. The NW flow is alive and well and hopefully can carry us through the next month. We have had some short hot stretches but this has no means been a terribly hot summer. I can't help but wonder if this pattern is a preview for the upcoming winter. The humidity has really been the stand out factor this summer...it's been something else. Luckily it seems like the developing Nino is helping to adjust the pattern and keep the big heat at bay going forward while the West burns. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 23, 2018 10:37:58 GMT -6
why do I keep reading the words "very little warning"? That is untrue if my information is correct. You're information is correct, there was plenty of warning in terms of the products issued by the SGF NWS. Not to mention the watch issued by the SPC earlier in the day. Severe storms do happen with little or no warning, but that's not the case here. Now this might be splitting hairs a bit, but I posted earlier that I thought the area probably began experiencing the gust front at around 7:01pm. That's what Chris determined as well. But I went back and looked at radar again, specifically spectrum width (which is another good way of locating gust fronts by the way), and better located the sinking site and I think the area could have been first affected closer to 6:59pm. We also have to consider that the radar only "sees" down to ~3000ft at that location. Additionally gust fronts (or density currents) in theory might propagate a little faster closer to the ground anyway. Even still that's at least 27 minutes of warning given that the warning was issued at 6:32pm. Also based on the information in the warning (valid at 6:31pm) I calculated a time of arrival of 28 minutes. So the warning had long lead time and turned out to be very accurate with time of arrival and potential impact. That's not just a good warning...that's a great warning. |
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 23, 2018 11:05:30 GMT -6
They new the storm was coming. They changed routes. They have a a land and water driver. When they switch they call back to base letting them know they’re getting ready to splash down...they get an all clear... and go from there. Who ever gave them the go plus captains judgement is to me what’s at question here. I think it would be a shame if the duck boats don’t continue due to this. Two issues here. Why they were out there and the safety of the vehicle itself. Number two was ignored in 1999 when one of these sunk without a storm. That needs to be addressed before I would think they go on. They can sink. An emergency protocol, that works, needs to be developed. I’m with you. Tweak/modify and find true cause. They shouldn’t be on water when warnings are issued. That’s a major issue here. I also would make it mandatory to have jackets on in future. You have hundreds of ducks in multiple cities. Only 2 have sunk, only 1 in TRL in nearly 50 years. Freak of nature. Fate. Destiny. Who knows why. I just think it would be terrrible to shut down permanently when you have more people die in cars, planes, cruise ships, etc... yet they all cruise on. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 23, 2018 11:56:27 GMT -6
I'm sure we'll find out more as the investigation progresses, but do we know the protocol of how they approached severe weather? Do they have someone continually monitoring it? I know that my phone gets push notifications when there is a warning issued for the county that I am in-- did they have access to that? I understand that there was plenty of warning in place, but I truly wonder for the accessibility of this information. Someone would have had to have been monitoring the situation before hand and would have been aware of something approaching. I can't truly begin to think if anyone "running the show" actually knew this storm was on a collision course with the lake, along with it's wind history would have thought twice about sending anyone out. I was discussing it with one of our production assistants last night-- I showed her a typical severe storm warning product and she told me, "That looks like a manual, I can kind of understand what they're trying to say, but if I was in a situation where I am trying to figure out if it effects me and where I am (well aware we can't cover every single person...), there needs to be something other than a wall of text. All I really first noticed from this was 'Severe Thunderstorm Warning' in bold text." We talked about all different ways that could be made more accessible to the general public because not everyone is a "weather weenie". We thrive on that stuff, we love that text product stuff like anything because it's simple for us to break down and understand. For others, it may not be that easy. I'm in no way faulting the NWS for their process, however I think there needs to be some serious thought put into simplifying the science (and they have definitely made those strides in the past decade) if we really want to have the public become engaged in taking warnings seriously. Maybe special warning products for people within the vicinity of dense recreation? Who knows... we do special lake warnings up north? There's a lot of people in the water down in Southern Missouri every summer... Just some food for thought, my two cents... et cetera. Luke, It really isnt a matter of IF a company had access to it... a business is responsible for the safety of their paying customers. It is their responsibility to GUARANTEE access to it as part of their business operations...whether that is via cell phone, weather radio, internet, etc. It is also a businesses responsibility to understand the information and interpret it properly. If a business fails to do so, and it results in injuries...or worse...they should be held accountable. Pretty much every cell phone now alerts if a warning is issued for your area. There is only so much we in the weather business can do to simplify this. Oversimplify and the data is useless...and you cannot possible tailor warnings for every possible scenario. We can only provide the warning...that is OUR expertise...but how that kind of weather may impact a business is THEIR expertise. I agree 100% that the business is responsible for heeding the warnings. It would be interesting to me to see how far in advance, prior to the actual warning for Branson/Table Rock Lake, that they were aware of such. Again, THEIR responsibility to be weather aware... I also still think there are ways Meteorologists, whether they be for the NWS or Local News Outlets, can further optimize severe weather coverage for public ingestion; whether it be products for a business, or someone complaining about why they were warned for something that didn't hit their backyard. When I originally posted, I may have made it seem like I was more concerned about whether they did or did not know... the message I was trying to send was the idea of severe warning optimization. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 12:31:23 GMT -6
Two issues here. Why they were out there and the safety of the vehicle itself. Number two was ignored in 1999 when one of these sunk without a storm. That needs to be addressed before I would think they go on. They can sink. An emergency protocol, that works, needs to be developed. I’m with you. Tweak/modify and find true cause. They shouldn’t be on water when warnings are issued. That’s a major issue here. I also would make it mandatory to have jackets on in future. You have hundreds of ducks in multiple cities. Only 2 have sunk, only 1 in TRL in nearly 50 years. Freak of nature. Fate. Destiny. Who knows why. I just think it would be terrrible to shut down permanently when you have more people die in cars, planes, cruise ships, etc... yet they all cruise on. Two sunk and over 50% of the people were killed each time. NTSB and others have suggested that simple water displacement should not be the only means for floatation. They also questioned the canopy. You can cut some boats in half and they'll still float and they don't carry this kind of load of people. It's just absurd that these go to the bottom. Read the article. www.google.com/amp/amp.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article215219170.html |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 13:12:19 GMT -6
the following is a quote from a friend of mine elsewhere. "I’ve been on the ducks several times in calm water. Nothing except the life jackets would float outside of water displacement. Wave after wave coming over the front, a bilge pump would not keep up with that. It just filled with water. One obvious flaw with those boats was it relied 100% on water displacement to float. There are bass boats you can cut in half and they still float. (Ranger boats). This may be the end of the ducks. And it would be justified. I have mixed feeling about it. I have fond memories of my family on them. They were not designed with tourist in mind. I’d suggest an amphibian craft could be designed with tourist in mind that would be orders of magnitude safer. The ducks are dinosaurs that are much too heavy to be on the roads (mountains) to be practical and in civilian life are out of their element. They were designed to be armored vehicles to protect occupants from bullets. A lighter more elegant and safer craft could and should be designed and used for tourist. The ducks perhaps should be in museums. They could even design a ground up duck that looks like the original but is made out of lighter materials, stuffed with styrofoam, and so doesn’t rely 100% on displacement to float. I hope that is their future. Because that was the most accessible way to tour the town and people who would never charter or rent a boat were able to get out on the beautiful lake." There is a company that is designing and producing new duck boats with newer materials that have escape hatches in the canopies. I'm not sure how much more buoyancy they were putting into this but these things simply can't drop like a rock the way they do when they lose their buoyancy. That is what they do now. I'll post the link about the company building the new ducks later. Below is the link to that article. www.google.com/amp/amp.fox13news.com/news/local-news/largo-business-working-to-create-safer-duck-boatsIf you click on the advantages tab you will see a claim of virtually unsinkable. This guy's got the right idea. www.trolleyboats.net |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 23, 2018 14:50:20 GMT -6
I'd also read a report citing the duck boat inspector that the engine exhaust is vented out the front and below the water line making the craft susceptible to having water forced into the engine and stalling. And then if the engine stalls the bilge pumps quit too.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 23, 2018 16:05:43 GMT -6
If regulators don't shut them down, I have to believe the loss of business will. Who would ever go back out on one ever again? Not me.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 16:21:19 GMT -6
If regulators don't shut them down, I have to believe the loss of business will. Who would ever go back out on one ever again? Not me. Not me. I would go on one of those Trolley Boats though. It's at least made for it. Good for 6ft seas and unsinkable with electric windows that automatically open in 6 secs in emergency and escape hatches in the canopy. Also looks like much better viewing. They even use these on the ocean |
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nrs2420
Wishcaster
Pacific, MO
Posts: 227
Snowfall Events: It has snowed several times.
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Post by nrs2420 on Jul 23, 2018 17:00:16 GMT -6
I would go out on one. Can’t live in fear. Chances of dying on the duck ride are less than a lot of other things.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 17:10:30 GMT -6
I would go out on one. Can’t live in fear. Chances of dying on the duck ride are less than a lot of other things. Of course there are. I avoid those other things too, or at least use modern protection. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 23, 2018 17:18:42 GMT -6
I find it morally unacceptable to accept that occasionally some whole families will be lost. With these it's a matter of when, not if. These relics are getting older and there is more than one way to sink one. They are not made for this. It's no different than old amusement rides we have passed on. We learn. There are alternatives.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 23, 2018 21:06:59 GMT -6
I would still ride again. Several cities have these and don’t plan to stop. I believe they stay open and business will return. One accident won’t stop Branson in nearly 50 years. Freak of nature. Found this info from Table Rock Lakes Facebook page.
How many times in history have hurricane-force straight winds like this ever occurred on Table Rock Lake? How often do weather and forecasts suddenly change in the Ozarks?! According to data compiled since the 1940s by the NOAA/National Weather Service the biggest variation in temperature, precipitation, and wind in the entire United States occurs in Springfield MO.
Really surprising stat. I truly think this is once in a lifetime event for lake and ducks. Obviously thing to still question is who gave the go and captains motive with the weather in area.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 23, 2018 21:56:42 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 23, 2018 22:45:48 GMT -6
I would ride a Duck again if I went anywhere that had them. If you don't ride a Duck out of fear of sinking, then you shouldn't fly either. Planes crash, with more frequency then Ducks sink. Might not want to drive anywhere either. Come on people, living in fear is not the way to do it, the terrorists will win.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 23, 2018 22:52:19 GMT -6
Drove by the ride the ducks building several times while in Branson this weekend. It was pretty heartbreaking to see the cars of the victims still in the parking lot with flowers and cards on them. Personally I would ride a duck again, but I would really like to see them improve how they handle severe weather situations. There is no reason a duck should be out in the water when a warning is issued.
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 24, 2018 5:00:18 GMT -6
The duck boats will survive I would imagine. They are owned by Ripley’s. So they have very deep pockets. I’m sure there will be changes though.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 24, 2018 5:52:41 GMT -6
Fear is not why I wouldn't ride them. I guess you don't get it.
Unless they change those considerably they should just put a sign on there that says if this sinks give yourself a 57% chance of kissing your ! BACKSIDE ! goodbye. In my mind it would fall under defective products. It can sink. High likelihood of death if it sinks. There are alternatives.
If they continue to use them and it happens again, which is likely considering the age of these things, the lawsuits are going to be so ridiculously big it'll make your head spin.
They either need to alter them to get rid of the trap factor, or find a way to give them some buoyancy, or both. You can't sit there and ignore reality
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 24, 2018 6:18:42 GMT -6
The weird thing about this whole situation is if they would have considered that like a passenger boat back in 1999 there probably would have been drastic changes made then. But it's sat there in that in between area and actually the harshest criticism back then was from the NTSB rather than the Coast Guard or whatever. They can't let it slip through again.
Back in the report in 1999 they said the buoyancy from the life jackets probably prevented people from getting out. They even speculated that the natural buoyancy of the human body probably temporarily kept people from getting out until the boat sank too deeply. It seems absolutely nothing was applied from that tragedy so we pretty much had to see it again. That boat pretty much dropped Like a rock once it went under. If you couldn't stabilize till you got down to 80 feet you're as good as dead anyhow. And I got to tell you that's not even a deep part of that lake. Serious design flaws for something that transports multitudes of people.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 24, 2018 9:14:17 GMT -6
Just wondering does anyone have a Outlook update for August temperature wise?
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 24, 2018 9:55:16 GMT -6
Just wondering does anyone have a Outlook update for August temperature wise?
For the official Climate Prediction Center outlooks you can go here:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
On the main page look for the section titled "One Month Outlook" for the temperature and precipitation links.
Bottom line for August: Decent chance of above normal temperatures but definitely not guaranteed.
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