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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 28, 2022 22:27:13 GMT -6
Gfs has a bad ice storm it appears. That can go away and no one will feel slighted |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 28, 2022 22:28:24 GMT -6
In MODOT we trust.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 22:29:09 GMT -6
It has over 1.5" of freezing rain and about 1.0" of FRAM in the Indianapolis area.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 28, 2022 22:29:11 GMT -6
500mb quite a bit less organized towards the end of the event compared to other runs.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 28, 2022 22:29:12 GMT -6
Ice is bad but ice before negative temps is really bad. If that plays out, a lot of people will lose power.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 22:30:24 GMT -6
WSC gets a decent snow out of that too.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 22:36:01 GMT -6
That’s the type of storm that takes an insane amount of salt to control. With that amount of freezing rain and sleet temps 25-28 and then snow followed by -5 temps that would be brutal to be a snow removal company.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 22:42:49 GMT -6
The GEM is going to be a great run coming in colder than it’s last couple runs
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Post by RyanD on Jan 28, 2022 22:49:14 GMT -6
Geesh, GFS is nuts. I really don't want that much ZR. Would rather have power/heat.
Also of note, the GFS follows that winter storm for us on the 7th. Fun times ahead (assuming I don't end up in mostly rain which is still a huge concern IMO)
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 28, 2022 22:50:28 GMT -6
The GEM is going to be a great run coming in colder than it’s last couple runs Yeah... that's a good run |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 22:51:03 GMT -6
Ukie is interesting
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 22:55:40 GMT -6
Looks like the Ukie completely shreds out the energy resulting in a very suppressed solution
It actually results in a pretty big snow storm around here but definitely an outlier
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 22:58:16 GMT -6
Yes it’s totally different, way less qpf gives Stl 6” but not much north of here really only one initial wave then suppressed city
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 28, 2022 23:02:59 GMT -6
It just a statistical fluke that STL hasn't had major snow (6+") in the month of February in nearly 29 years. But if it doesn't pan out this time either AND it's because of 4" of sleet that would be pathetic. I thought we had that last year?? I think we had close to 10" |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 28, 2022 23:03:28 GMT -6
GEFS continues to up its mean snow 6-8” in the metro area , that’s pretty solid this far out
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 23:05:30 GMT -6
The 00z guidance that has arrived thus far... which I admit I have not been able to dig deep on... keeps the hope alive. Steady as she goes my friends.
But, living in chesterfield... I'll take the GEM's 17.4 inches in Chesterfield... or if you prefer the Kuchera 21.5 "
Dreams...snow fantasy...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 28, 2022 23:06:19 GMT -6
That’s a sizeable mean QPF jump on the GEFS 18z run was sitting at just over 1”  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 23:08:11 GMT -6
It just a statistical fluke that STL hasn't had major snow (6+") in the month of February in nearly 29 years. But if it doesn't pan out this time either AND it's because of 4" of sleet that would be pathetic. I thought we had that last year?? I think we had close to 10" The GEFS snow depth product on Pivotal weather includes liquid equivalent that contributes to sleet... so those 6-8 are not all snow... not even close. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 23:11:00 GMT -6
I like that the UK has such a southern displacement... that gives me a little more confidence in the cold air building south. But it's pretty obvious this is a classic winter mix to snow mess for St. Louis. All models do show some mighty cold air building south too.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 28, 2022 23:15:53 GMT -6
It just a statistical fluke that STL hasn't had major snow (6+") in the month of February in nearly 29 years. But if it doesn't pan out this time either AND it's because of 4" of sleet that would be pathetic. I thought we had that last year?? I think we had close to 10" KSTL only got 5.7" |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 28, 2022 23:28:34 GMT -6
I thought we had that last year?? I think we had close to 10" KSTL only got 5.7" Yeah... that was a case where the DGZ just did not line-up well with max lift. That and the winds conspired against larger numbers. That's one reason I usually don't get too wraped up in the LSR stuff... especially this far out... because more often than not it seems we still flush out in the 1:10 to 1:13 range. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 29, 2022 0:28:21 GMT -6
Euro= Huge
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 0:29:26 GMT -6
The kuchera map coming off this euro run is going to be fuel for the Facebook meteorologist
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 29, 2022 0:30:30 GMT -6
EURO looking like another hard hit. 540 line a bit more progressive south on this run. Does appear to start precipitation a bit earlier than 18z though. Colder this run too by a couple degrees gets the frozen going sooner. I believe we are looking at a kaboom.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 29, 2022 0:35:47 GMT -6
EURO = Big KABOOM
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 0:37:07 GMT -6
Euro is definitely another big'un
Positive snow depth change has 6-12" in the metro with the most in the SE metro
Southern counties get significant icing but also significant snow
Looks like Farmington gets over half an inch of ice accretion and 10" of snow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 0:44:30 GMT -6
The Kuchera map has 20” downtown lol
I remember reading that the Kuchera method vastly overestimates snowfall amounts in very cold columns
Good example right there
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Post by weatherj on Jan 29, 2022 0:50:18 GMT -6
Other than uncle Ukie ( which still isn't bad ) it sure looks like the 00z suite was about as good as we'd want. That icing output on the GFS though, ouch. That's a huge ice storm for almost the entire region. I was worried about plain rain at least with wave 1 over here, that's still obviously a possibility but definitely concerned about ice for the S/E counties as well. I'm hoping you metro and N/W guys see some sleet and then a heavy plastering of snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2022 1:20:52 GMT -6
00z EPS mean 10:1 snowfall Cant ask for much more at this range  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 29, 2022 1:31:19 GMT -6
I like "GHD 2011 Redemption " for the next thread title....that one was all ZR here. The serious cold coming in behind this is upping the ante. I do not want to see anyone lose power.
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