|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 23:04:17 GMT -6
For maximum accretion you want small droplets that are supercooled falling onto a sub freezing surface. That freezing drizzle nightmare a few years ago was a perfect example of ideal accretion conditions
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 0:04:28 GMT -6
Euro is nw. Meh.
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 0:12:39 GMT -6
Basically I miss - The NAM is basically by itself. Not good, we will likely see do the exact same thing In the next couple models runs
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 0:16:44 GMT -6
Not sure id call the euro a miss. Hits the NW half of the area pretty good
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2020 2:32:30 GMT -6
I will probably regret this prediction.
But I'm seeing an open door for things to trend towards a snowier onset.
The models are showing signals and trending towards the WAA coming in with a right turning arch to the winds while orientated along a SW to NE path.
This kind of set up somewhat stymies the warmer air in it's ascent Northward.
In terms of precipitation this will show it self on radar to a degree with the look of sort of a half moon of precip with legs like a centipede on the Southern fringe like its climbing up a hill versus racing up a steeper hill.
I think this will manifest itself with an initial band of moderate to heavy snow that will last 90-120 minutes and drop 1.5" on average.
Then a small break and a more rich blob of freezing rain after.
Either way the models are starting to have us in the 27-29F range until deep into Friday evening.
Talk about a crippling ice event.
2" of snow then 0.5" of ice would be beautiful and destructive.
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2020 3:58:23 GMT -6
Winter weather advisory from rolla down south along I-44
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 7:28:55 GMT -6
Looking at the nam again this morning and the way it sets up... I know it is the outlier but it is hard to discount any scenario. NAM was first to pick up on the intense band of snow in Mid-December that we got and other models didn't pick up until last second and some not at all. WAA almost always comes ahead of time. I remember the Jan. 4, 2014 storm when it was supposed to start at ZR/IP overnight around 2-3 AM and radar was exploding at 9/10 PM. Plus, I'm banking on no school tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2020 7:50:54 GMT -6
Well the HRRRRRRRRR flat out sucks!!
|
|
|
Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 16, 2020 8:01:04 GMT -6
I got a plowing job for the winter months I hope it does something lol I canceled rabbit hunting plans to work tonight and tomorrow... we will see
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 8:08:33 GMT -6
Hi-res has temps in upper 20's as precip moves into area around 7-8
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 8:12:57 GMT -6
Basically the NAM jumped ship and went northwest and much latter with the precipitation
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 8:19:04 GMT -6
Hi-res nam is still a mess all day area wide almost.
Precip type shows rain but it isn't rain when temps are mid to upper 20s.
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2020 8:24:34 GMT -6
I think along amd northwest of 44 is going to be a mess
|
|
|
Post by freezyfree on Jan 16, 2020 8:25:44 GMT -6
Do we anticipate expanded advisories?
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 8:27:03 GMT -6
Hi-res nam is still a mess all day area wide almost. Precip type shows rain but it isn't rain when temps are mid to upper 20s. Someone tell me I'm wrong or missing something on the hi-res
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 16, 2020 8:29:22 GMT -6
I will probably regret this prediction. But I'm seeing an open door for things to trend towards a snowier onset Talk about a crippling ice event. 2" of snow then 0.5" of ice would be beautiful and destructive. I have learned a great many things on this board. One of them is to never bet against Friv when he sees something that few others are seeing.
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 8:32:12 GMT -6
I don’t see any NAM models showing any precipitation until 12pm -2pm They are definitely cold, just dry as a bone . Hopefully the models are over estimating the dam and under estimating the waa. The nam is basically the same as all models. A little precipitation down to the i44 are with most of it north and west of the metro. Basically 0 down south and East.
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jan 16, 2020 9:19:06 GMT -6
11:45 appointment in west Belleville that is a must. I would be just fine with snow. Then let me get home before ice.
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2020 9:30:52 GMT -6
I don’t see any NAM models showing any precipitation until 12pm -2pm They are definitely cold, just dry as a bone . Hopefully the models are over estimating the dam and under estimating the waa. The nam is basically the same as all models. A little precipitation down to the i44 are with most of it north and west of the metro. Basically 0 down south and East. The DAM is why temps are colder. If WAA is more intense, the changeover will be quicker. This is not a great setup at all
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 16, 2020 9:38:07 GMT -6
Just wondering since there are no Advisories yet for the St. Louis area does that mean not a major event?
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2020 9:41:28 GMT -6
Yes I’m well aware of weather and the models. I have been doing snow removal for over 25 years, nearly every snow and Ice storm. I took a couple meteorology classes in college have been tracking and learning the models for 15 years. I agree it’s not a great setup for sure . The RGEM does look better.
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 9:50:52 GMT -6
RGEM is pretty impressive. Especially for STL and points W and N
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2020 9:55:44 GMT -6
No advisories yet does not mean anything but they arent co fident yet. Read the disco from the nws
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2020 9:58:17 GMT -6
I’m hoping my extra heavy pre-treating will take of this one because I sure as hell do not want to be out in this tomorrow
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2020 9:59:05 GMT -6
Maybe it’ll skip right on by Festus! I’d be very happy if the ice went north! I prefer snow!
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 16, 2020 10:07:21 GMT -6
I’m hoping my extra heavy pre-treating will take of this one because I sure as hell do not want to be out in this tomorrow Can you post the link please?
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2020 10:18:16 GMT -6
I’m excited for the brutal cold before it warms up and rains next week
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 10:25:06 GMT -6
Yep. We are going to fill every weekend in January with rain.
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2020 10:26:42 GMT -6
I’m hoping my extra heavy pre-treating will take of this one because I sure as hell do not want to be out in this tomorrow Can you post the link please? What link?
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 16, 2020 10:31:29 GMT -6
Can you post the link please? What link? For the disco
|
|