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Post by bdgwx on Jan 15, 2020 17:20:40 GMT -6
15Z SREF has about 0.3" of frozen stuff out of 0.8" total.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 17:20:41 GMT -6
I didn’t have time to look at many models today, but besides the NAM, most of the other models really don’t show much . The onset looks to be pushed back and by the time the heaviest precipitation arrives it’s the afternoon with temps in the low 30’s, not very effective ice accumulation. I guess we will see but definitely a trend to have the heaviest precipitation just north and west of Warren and St. Charles county. There is not much at all south of I 44 . The RGEM is very dry and late with the precipitation and it has done well this year.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2020 17:32:35 GMT -6
Tough call with the feed of dry air from the E/SE but models are usually too slow to saturate when there's strong WAA which in this case there is. I'd say it's pretty likely we'll see several hours of frozen precipitation before switching over with potential for significant glazing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2020 17:35:38 GMT -6
That grammar is from talk-to-text.
A lot of times I'm at work and I can't stop and type so I can't stop to edit.
right now I'm standing at work here talking really slowly into the phone and it seems like it's doing a pretty good job of accurately depicting what I'm trying to convey.
but sometimes I'll be walking and I will get excited and start talking too fast and then it all goes to hell.
I am currently standing in section 332 at the Enterprise center looking down toward the ice.
the first puck drop isn't for like another 97 minutes and the crowd was already pouring in here.
I'm going to take a panoramic photograph of the entire arena every 15 minutes until puck drop to show how fast an early these pants are getting here this year because of the excitement around the team.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 17:37:37 GMT -6
I’m leaning heavily towards the NAM camp for this event. It’s tough to go against the ukie and euro but the NAM usually excels in these setups.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 17:57:31 GMT -6
And to think the NWS was forecasting snow to rain this morning. They were late to the game with our 2-3 inch storm this past weekend forecasting 1 inch or less at best until issuing a WAA for STL county just after 3pm on Saturday. They upped totals last minute even though there was a consensus after the 00z runs on Friday showing this potential (12-18 hrs earlier). And now here, as most of the models/ensembles showed at least some freezing rain back on Monday. I understand it's good to be conservative when forecasting, but this set up has been more ripe for ice than snow when it was first being modeled. I think at least a WAA should of been issued for the STL metro in the afternoon package today. All it takes is a couple hundreds of an inch of ice to cause major problems. There needs to be better lead time for the public for the upcoming event IMO. It's becoming increasingly likely that Friday's afternoon/evening will be bad.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 15, 2020 17:59:07 GMT -6
That grammar is from talk-to-text. A lot of times I'm at work and I can't stop and type so I can't stop to edit. right now I'm standing at work here talking really slowly into the phone and it seems like it's doing a pretty good job of accurately depicting what I'm trying to convey. but sometimes I'll be walking and I will get excited and start talking too fast and then it all goes to hell. I am currently standing in section 332 at the Enterprise center looking down toward the ice. the first puck drop isn't for like another 97 minutes and the crowd was already pouring in here. I'm going to take a panoramic photograph of the entire arena every 15 minutes until puck drop to show how fast an early these PANTS are getting here this year because of the excitement around the team. [ HAHAHAHA you came so close
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2020 18:08:59 GMT -6
The nam is silly cold during Friday afternoon.
Upper 20s and moderate to heavy rain
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2020 18:09:29 GMT -6
And to think the NWS was forecasting snow to rain this morning. They were late to the game with our 2-3 inch storm this past weekend forecasting 1 inch or less at best until issuing a WAA for STL county just after 3pm on Saturday. They upped totals last minute even though there was a consensus after the 00z runs on Friday showing this potential (12-18 hrs earlier). And now here, as most of the models/ensembles showed at least some freezing rain back on Monday. I understand it's good to be conservative when forecasting, but this set up has been more ripe for ice than snow when it was first being modeled. I think at least a WAA should of been issued for the STL metro in the afternoon package today. All it takes is a couple hundreds of an inch of ice to cause major problems. There needs to be better lead time for the public for the upcoming event IMO. It's becoming increasingly likely that Friday's afternoon/evening will be bad. Still time to get another model run or two before an advisory would be issued...although no mention of freezing rain in that forecast is odd considering that looks to be the predominate p-type besides for plain rain, IMO...and potential for significant amounts of glazing. EDIT: I see that they have added ZR with the update.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2020 18:09:50 GMT -6
The nam is silly cold during Friday afternoon. Upper 20s and moderate to heavy rain That's concerning...
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 15, 2020 18:17:51 GMT -6
That grammar is from talk-to-text. A lot of times I'm at work and I can't stop and type so I can't stop to edit. right now I'm standing at work here talking really slowly into the phone and it seems like it's doing a pretty good job of accurately depicting what I'm trying to convey. but sometimes I'll be walking and I will get excited and start talking too fast and then it all goes to hell. I am currently standing in section 332 at the Enterprise center looking down toward the ice. the first puck drop isn't for like another 97 minutes and the crowd was already pouring in here. I'm going to take a panoramic photograph of the entire arena every 15 minutes until puck drop to show how fast an early these PANTS are getting here this year because of the excitement around the team. [ HAHAHAHA you came so close I thought pants was just the lastest slang for fans. Could work.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 15, 2020 18:22:45 GMT -6
Easy school decision just close Sorry... it would seem like an easy decision, but it's not. Have to take into account the number of hours required to meet state requirements, sports teams and schedules, bus schedules, and even the parents. Kinda like playing Russian Roulette.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2020 18:26:02 GMT -6
[ HAHAHAHA you came so close I thought pants was just the lastest slang for fans. Could work. Would explain the phrase "seat of the pants."
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 15, 2020 19:58:07 GMT -6
And to think the NWS was forecasting snow to rain this morning. They were late to the game with our 2-3 inch storm this past weekend forecasting 1 inch or less at best until issuing a WAA for STL county just after 3pm on Saturday. They upped totals last minute even though there was a consensus after the 00z runs on Friday showing this potential (12-18 hrs earlier). And now here, as most of the models/ensembles showed at least some freezing rain back on Monday. I understand it's good to be conservative when forecasting, but this set up has been more ripe for ice than snow when it was first being modeled. I think at least a WAA should of been issued for the STL metro in the afternoon package today. All it takes is a couple hundreds of an inch of ice to cause major problems. There needs to be better lead time for the public for the upcoming event IMO. It's becoming increasingly likely that Friday's afternoon/evening will be bad. Still time to get another model run or two before an advisory would be issued...although no mention of freezing rain in that forecast is odd considering that looks to be the predominate p-type besides for plain rain, IMO...and potential for significant amounts of glazing. EDIT: I see that they have added ZR with the update. Yeah they updated it in the afternoon package! It took them awhile IMO. At the end of the day you don't want to underestimate forecasting a freezing rain potential.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 20:08:42 GMT -6
Nam is gonna come in north.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2020 20:09:08 GMT -6
Still time to get another model run or two before an advisory would be issued...although no mention of freezing rain in that forecast is odd considering that looks to be the predominate p-type besides for plain rain, IMO...and potential for significant amounts of glazing. EDIT: I see that they have added ZR with the update. Yeah they updated it in the afternoon package! It took them awhile IMO. At the end of the day you don't want to underestimate forecasting a freezing rain potential. I’ve had all mentioned in my forecast for 2 days now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2020 20:14:29 GMT -6
Ok guys, here's the NWS winter page, it has probabilities of amounts ..lowest and highest amts, and ice. Bookmark it. www.weather.gov/lsx/winter
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 20:19:13 GMT -6
Nam is gonna come in north. Maybe a bit from the 18z but its still very icy
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2020 20:19:48 GMT -6
I’m way behind on what the latest is so bare with me. My wife works all weekend so it’s the only reason I ask...
Does this appear to be an all freezing rain event, no snow? I saw mention of onset Friday afternoon.. How long do we expect for this to reek havoc on the roads? Through the day Saturday?
Apologies as I’m usually up to speed with the latest forecast and trends. If someone can give a short and sweet on the p-type (does it change to rain at some point, snow, etc?), does Saturday look problematic? Thanks fellas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2020 20:22:31 GMT -6
Looks mostly freezing rain and some sleet from maybe mid or late friday morning into the evening. It will change tomrain during the evening and temps will go well above freezing overnight. Saturday should be fine.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 20:22:37 GMT -6
Temps are still not above freezing at 9pm Friday on the NAM
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 20:22:41 GMT -6
NAM is still a beast run along and north of 70. Still the coldest solution with the most frozen precipitation
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2020 20:23:30 GMT -6
NAM continues with major winter storm for the area
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2020 20:25:57 GMT -6
Verbatim- roughly .45 liquid equivalent of sleet then .50 zr. Starts late morning temps mid 20s at onset reaching 30 by 600pm 32 by 900
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 20:27:15 GMT -6
NAM would be alot of sleet starting Friday morning followed by a good hit of freezing rain while temps start in the mid 20's and slowly climb to freezing by midnight Friday. Needless to say roads would be a mess
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 20:27:55 GMT -6
Dangit coz i was going to post that lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 20:28:53 GMT -6
I have seen several of these storms over the years where the models warm things up to fast and we remain below freezing or we stay sleet longer. There was a storm in like 12-13 that was like this . I remember friv was all over it. As we got closer the models got colder. We were supposed to get an inch of snow and sleet and ended up with several inches due to the later change over. I hope we get soMe sleet first. The sleet or snow is easier to drive on and treat than straight freezing rain.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2020 20:29:19 GMT -6
Sorry about that chief
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 20:30:15 GMT -6
That would be a great storm
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2020 20:31:32 GMT -6
Damn! NAM would be a crushing ice storm. That’s insane to see it hold course now that it’s getting within its reliability window with sub freezing temps for 10-12 hours while precipitation continues to fall.
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